[8] Big Spring Chinook, Sockeye Runs In The Columbia Predicted For 2012

Columbia Basin harvest managers are expecting 314,000 spring chinook to show up in the Columbia in 2012, after the second largest jack count on record materialized last spring.

If the prediction comes true, the 2012 return would be the fourth largest since 1938, according to ODFW, and close to 2010's big run. Last year, about 221,000 returned to the mouth of the river, more than 20,000 fish above the pre-season forecast.

The technical advisory committee for the U.S. v. Oregon process said close to 33,000 are expected to be headed for the Upper Columbia, nearly twice last year's numbers. About 2,800 should be wild, it said in its Dec. 12 memo.

The Snake should see around 168,000 spring/summer chinook, according to TAC, with 39,000 wild ones. In 2011, about 127,500 spring/summer chinook returned to the Snake, including about 31,600 wild fish.

The upper Columbia should also expect 91,000 summer chinook. That would beat this year's return by more than 10,000 fish.

The managers had more good news to report on the sockeye front. They are predicting a 462,000-fish return, with 431,300 expected to be headed to the Okanogan River, 28,800 to the Wenatchee and 1,900 to the Snake River.

The harvest managers said most 2012 fall chinook stocks should perform similar to last year's actual return--around 600,000 total. TAC had predicted a 766,000-fish return in 2011. They said all stocks appeared to have come in below predictions, especially Lower River Hatchery, Bonneville Pool Hatchery and mid-Columbia brights.

Fall jack returns were average or similar to 2010 returns, they reported, except for upriver brights, which appear to be above average, and are expected to have another strong return. However, they also expect fewer Bonneville hatchery tules than this year.

TAC also noted that 2011's coho run totaled almost 271,000 fish, while the jack return was only 13,000, way off the 10-year average of 28,000. -B. R.

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