[4] NW Sockeye Runs Full Of Surprises
Columbia River and Snake River sockeye aren't the only runs in the region responding to extra-productive ocean conditions in 2008, when the fish went to sea.
Spill proponents in the Columbia Basin have argued that if ocean conditions were so good in recent years, then other sockeye runs should be showing as much benefit as the Columbia and Snake runs.
Early indications are that some runs are returning in much greater numbers than expected this year, including the first component of the granddaddy of regional sockeye runs--British Columbia's Fraser River.
The early summer component of the Fraser sockeye run has been boosted to 1.6 million fish from a preseason 950,000-fish estimate. Managers had already bumped up the preseason estimate of the Early Stuart run to 105,000 from 41,000.
They expect at least 8 million more sockeye to appear from the later running stocks, and planned to update their assessment in a few days. Some commercial fishing has already been allowed this year, with 75,000 harvested by commercial fishermen and 189,000 caught by First Nations, charter, recreational and test fisheries.
After getting burned big time over last year's Fraser River prediction, Canadian biologists have developed a more complicated way of trying to estimate this year's return.
Last year, only about 1.5 million sockeye showed up from the 10-million-fish prediction. Department of Fisheries and Oceans biologists said the actual return was way down in the 10-percent range of probability and most Fraser stocks showed the lowest productivity on record. That puzzled managers, who thought that ocean conditions had improved a great deal when the fish went to sea in 2007.
But there is some evidence that juvenile fish suffered high rates of mortality shortly after they entered the salt water in 2007. A federal judicial inquiry is underway to look into the suspected causes, which range from warm water to sea lice infestations at B.C. fish farms.
Out on Vancouver Island, the wild sockeye run in Barkley Sound was upgraded on July 6. The Somass River run--used as an index stock for the area--was bumped up to 700,000 from a preseason forecast of 600,000. Then on July 12, managers ratcheted their estimate up again, this time to 850,000 fish. And most recently, managers increased it again--to 1.1 million this time. Last month, they had said the Barkley Sound run might be returning two weeks early, but if it was right on time, more than a million sockeye could show up.
Farther north, near Prince Rupert, it was reported that B.C.'s Skeena River sockeye run was returning at about twice the forecast.
Closer to home, the Lake Washington sockeye run has also beat preseason expectations with nearly 157,000 counted by the end of July. The preseason prediction was 124,000, and it's based primarily on fry production from 2006 and 2007 spawner numbers.
The last big run in the lake occurred in 2006, when 120,000 sockeye had been counted at the Ballard Locks by July 8; but by the end of the month, over 400,000 had passed by. Only 22,000 returned last year.
However, some Alaska sockeye runs are not fulfilling expectations. The cumulative harvest as of Aug. 6 from Prince William Sound's famous Copper River is 620,000 sockeye and 9,350 chinook salmon. This compares with a historical five-year cumulative harvest average of 1.2 million sockeye and 25,000 chinook salmon for this date. Kodiak area sockeye runs are running below forecasts as well.
Bristol Bay sockeye came in late, but close to expectations. Over 28 million fish have been harvested there, and more than 11 million have been allowed to spawn. Managers had expected about 40 million to return, with a potential harvest of 30 million fish. -B. R.
Subscriptions and Feedback
Subscribe to the Fishletter notification e-mail list.
Send e-mail comments to the editor.
THE ARCHIVE :: Previous NW Fishletter issues and supporting documents.
NW Fishletter is produced by Energy NewsData.
Publisher: Cyrus Noë, Editor: Bill Rudolph
Phone: (206) 285-4848 Fax: (206) 281-8035
