[1] Spring Chinook Run Declining Fast
The daily chinook count at Bonneville Dam dipped below a thousand last Thursday, for the first time since April 9, signaling that the spring run may not even hit the revised estimate of 340,000 (to the river mouth) released by harvest managers May 17. The run officially ends June 15.
The dam count added up to 233,000 by May 26, the highest since 2002, and the third highest since 1977. But it's a far cry from the preseason estimate of nearly 500,000 springers entering the river.
Still, it has provided a very productive spring for sport and commercial fishers in the lower Columbia, who landed 38,600 upriver-bound chinook.
With a total run pegged at 340,000, that means sporties and commercials have reached 97 percent of the 2.3-percent limit of their allotted impact on ESA-listed upriver spring chinook.
Tribal fishers above Bonneville Dam ended up catching about 41,500 springers, 1,700 more spring chinook than their 11.7-percent allocation. They have closed their spring gillnet season and fishing platforms above the dam, but have kept tributary fisheries open.
Far upriver at Lower Granite Dam, fish numbers just seem to be peaking. More than 9,000 chinook passed the dam on May 19, with the total now near 75,000 fish, more than three times last year's numbers by this date.
Nearly 90,000 chinook have entered the Snake and have been counted at Ice Harbor Dam, so there are plenty more heading for Lower Granite. The Idaho Department of Fish and Game expected an 180,000-fish return, including 29,000 wild springers, but that seems too optimistic now. The summer component of the spring/summer has been slow to materialize, but the cool weather may be affecting the upriver migration. Or it may just turn out to be a major disappointment this year. -Bill Rudolph
[2] Amended Salmon Plan Handed Back To Judge
NOAA Fisheries used every bit of its three-month allotment to tidy up the 2008 hydro BiOp before handing it back to U.S. District Judge James Redden May 20 for one last chance at coming up with a salmon plan that will pass legal muster.
The feds used the limited remand Redden granted to include the Adaptive Management Implementation Plan added by the Obama administration after its review of the BiOp last year. The Obama add-ons included a plan to study breaching the four lower Snake dams if fish runs decline too fast, and other recommendations the judge strongly hinted should be included before he would give it a passing grade, including a closer look at impacts of climate change.
Redden granted the limited remand because he wanted to make sure the additions were legal--he was clear that he didn't want the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to hand the BiOp back to him on a technicality. The feds had simply wanted to tack the AMIP on to the existing BiOp. Instead, they have added another RPA [Reasonable, Prudent Alternative] to the 2008 BiOp that is the AMIP itself. Further, they amended six other RPAs of the 73 in the original plan, to reflect new salmon science gleaned since 2008.
"Two years into its implementation, the 2008 FCRPS BiOp remains consistent with the new information that has emerged," said a joint statement by Action Agencies and NOAA Fisheries. "This region's concerted efforts to protect salmon are appropriately precautionary and on course."
The agencies said the BiOp anticipated the short-term variations in fish numbers documented in the data, and that adult survival standards assure fish managers that the variations "will be monitored and addressed, as necessary."
The feds said 10-year average abundance increased of all listed populations for which new information was available.
On the downside, they pointed out, some populations of Upper Columbia chinook and steelhead, and Snake River spring/summer chinook, showed reduced natural productivity and increased extinction risk, compared to the BiOp's base period.
Survival of some listed steelhead and fall chinook have been reduced since the BiOp was released, due to higher cormorant predation in the estuary.
The amendments to existing RPAs--small tweaks in the scheme of things--include a call for the Corps of Engineers to study and report on how adult salmon use thermal refugia in the Columbia and Snake as way to cope with warm water--a topic that has to do with how well the fish can handle climate change.
But the amended BiOp said that NOAA Fisheries has completed a thorough review of new climate science and concluded "that the physical effects of climate change are likely to be within the range of effects considered in the 2008 BiOp."
The second addition mandates enhanced fish monitoring and the possibility, after completing a study, of installing PIT-tag detectors at The Dalles and John Day dams to improve inter-dam survival estimates.
The third amendment directs the Action Agencies to provide NOAA with past and future water temperature data to develop a regional database that will contribute to regional climate change impact evaluations.
Another amendment calls for Action Agencies to coordinate with NOAA in efforts to use existing studies of the effectiveness of tributary habitat and enhanced lifecycle modeling to track climate change impacts.
The amended BiOp also calls for a closer look at invasive species and toxicology issues by the expert panel that evaluates tributary habitat projects for implementation.
Beginning in December, the Action Agencies are directed to assist NOAA to develop more fully or modify existing studies that address the workgroup recommendations on fish supplementation and address the potential of density-dependent impacts of FCRPS hatchery releases on listed species. The goal is to develop ways to manage hatcheries that could reduce potential adverse hatchery effects.
This added focus on critical uncertainties with increased numbers of hatchery fish comes on top of a renewed commitment to fund more supplementation through the Fish Accords with several Columbia Basin tribes. BPA has said it will pay for nearly $370 million in supplementation efforts for the Yakama, Colville, Umatilla and Warm Springs tribes, more than 40 percent of the total funding committed in the Accords agreements signed two years ago.
Most of the Accords funding will pay for habitat restoration, and the generous spending helped get most Basin tribes to support the federal salmon plan. The amended BiOp pointed out that the agreements with tribes and states "address the certainty of implementation to achieve biological benefits," one of the Judge's main issues ever since he threw out the 2000 hydro BiOp many years back.
BPA says it has more than $60 million committed to Accords projects for FY 2010, while non-Accord F&W funding is about $125 million.
In FY 2009, BPA spent more than $40 million on Accords projects; in FY 2008, about $26 million, and in FY 2007, about $24 million.
The agreement calls for spending nearly a billion dollars on supplementation and habitat improvements over the 10-year life of the BiOp, essentially doubling the habitat program.
Now all parties are girding for another round of briefing, which some say could continue through next winter, since plaintiffs in the long litigation have given no indication they are satisfied by the changes to the salmon plan. -B. R.
[3] Fish Managers Tap Dworshak To Help Smolt Migration
Fish managers last week decided to uncork Idaho's Dworshak reservoir for a few days to help young spring chinook and steelhead make it through the reservoir above Lower Granite Dam.
They were worried that this year's migration needed an extra boost to get them moving downstream, especially the steelhead, since they had estimated that only about half of the run had shown up at Lower Granite Dam by the middle of May.
At the May 19 Technical Management Team meeting, managers were trying to coordinate with dam operators to make sure the water was added during the peak freshet, which was originally expected around May 25. The additional flow from Dworshak, flowing to the Snake from the Clearwater River, was expected to add about 10 kcfs to the 90 kcfs or so from the Snake.
Most managers were supportive of the operation, even though the Dworshak release might short the amount of water traditionally used later in the summer to help cool temperatures in the lower Snake, mainly for adults on their way home. Corps of Engineers' personnel said with 2010's low flows, their latest model run showed Dworshak barely filling by the end of June.
By the time the May 19 meeting was over, there was general agreement that the most prudent course of affairs would be to add enough water to keep Lower Granite flows at 100 kcfs for a 72-hour period around May 25, when peak flows were expected.
But the peak came a few days earlier than expected, and the Corps of Engineers began releasing water from Dworshak that very night. Flows topped at 106 kcfs at Granite on May 21, and quickly dropped down to the mid-70 kcfs range.
NOAA Fisheries representative Rich Domingue had said his agency wanted at least 72 hours of 100 kcfs at Lower Granite. Anything more than that, he said, increased the risk of reduced water for flows later in August.
Oregon's Ron Boyce wanted more water on top of the peak flows in order to reach 112 kcfs at the dam. He was one of the managers expressing surprise at the low numbers of steelhead for this stage of the migration.
BPA representative Tony Norris said his agency didn't really care which criteria managers agreed on, though it meant a "big chunk of megawatts." He said BPA had enough flexibility with power sales in a few days to take care of it. However, he also cautioned that BPA's own streamflow estimates were a little more pessimistic than the Corps'.
No one mentioned just how far along they thought the juvenile migration was by the middle of last week, though Boyce said managers had some estimates among themselves.
It was clear from data available from the Fish Passage Center that both spring chinook and steelhead numbers were likely past their peak, judging from smolt indices posted on the center's website.
An April FPC memo had estimated about 10 million spring chinook, fall chinook and summer steelhead hatchery smolts were expected to be released above Lower Granite between the first three weeks of April. That total included about 1.5 million more spring chinook smolts than were released in recent years, and about a million fewer steelhead.
On average, about 60 percent of all hatchery smolts make it to Lower Granite. So far, the smolt index--an estimate of all smolts that reach the dam based on a count of juveniles that are routed through bypass systems around turbines--has only reached about 2 million for spring chinook and about 1.2 million for young steelhead had reached the dam by May 19. If that was near accurate, it would mean less than half the run had reached the first dam on the Lower Snake by then.
But another measure of smolt numbers, used by the Fish Passage Advisory Committee has updated the smolt index data to try and reflect more accurately the actual size of the run since removable spillway weirs have been installed. RSWS have increased the percentage of smolts that pass the dams via spill and have reduced the number that are barged from earlier years in the decade. By May 19, FPAC had estimated that more than 3 million steelhead had actually passed Lower Granite.
NOAA Fisheries biologist Paul Wagner who chairs FPAC this year, told NW Fishletter that nobody's really sure what the numbers are, but managers were pretty sure a significant number of juvenile steelhead were still above Lower Granite, and others stuck between Lower Granite and Little Goose dams, before the short freshet showed up. He pointed to smolt index graphs from previous years that suggest the migration was way behind schedule.
Another estimate of smolt numbers based on PIT tags from the University of Washington's Columbia Basin Research had pegged that 55 percent (plus or minus 25 percent) of the steelhead run had already passed Lower Granite by the May 19, along with 87 percent (plus or minus 16 percent) of the spring chinook smolts.
By May 20, flows peaked and smolt numbers took off at both dams. But two days later, flows had declined to 86 kcfs and down to 78 kcfs by May 25. But the U.W. estimated that by May 24, 81 percent of the combined hatchery and wild steelhead run had passed Lower Granite--about 20 percent of the run in just a few days.
The FPAC estimate showed a similar improvement, with about a million steelhead smolts moving past the dam during the several days when flows peaked.
That still doesn't mean the young fish are out of the woods, but when they hit the Columbia, they should find the highest flows of the season helping to send them on their way. Flows at McNary Dam were still running above 200 kcfs by May 25, after peaking on the 21st at 268 kcfs.
However, after flows peak, and water temperatures go up, that could spell big trouble for inriver migrating steelhead, even though more spill at dams is available for inriver migrators than in 2001, when only 4 percent of them made it all the way to Bonneville Dam. Flows in 2001 were the second lowest on record, when the January-through-July Columbia Basin water supply was only 55 percent of average. This year it's pegged at about 66 percent.
To compare years, in 2001, flows at McNary never climbed much above 170 kcfs the entire spring migration season, and water temperature approached 17 degrees C. by the end of that May. This year, the water at McNary is approaching 13 degrees C, after declining last week.
Many biologists have figured that once the river temperature is above 13 C (54 F), steelhead begin to lose their inclination to smolt and tend to stay put for the rest of the year, a phenomenon they call residualism.
The forebay temperature at downstream at John Day Dam is already 13 degrees C. If flows drop fast, it could double the time it takes for them to get to Bonneville Dam and expose juvenile steelhead to near-lethal conditions. NMFS scientists say they expect to see less than one percent of residualized steelhead actually migrate out the following year.
Luckily, most steelhead from the 2001 migration were barged from the Snake, and returned in reasonable numbers.
This year, federal fish scientists wanted to maximize barging to get steelhead out of the low-flowing river (65 percent of average water supply), but the proposal backfired after the region's independent science panel recommended to continue the "spread-the-risk" spill and transport policy ordered by U.S. District Judge James Redden in 2005.
According to the FPC, about one million steelhead have been barged so far this spring. Federal scientists expect more than half to remain in the river, but if FPAC estimates are close, that would mean only about one-fourth of the steelhead run has been barged this year.
With more spill at dams than in 2001, inriver survival should beat 2001's disastrous 4 percent. However, even if the fish do make it to the ocean, what's in store then?
NOAA Fisheries scientist Bill Petersen said conditions in the Pacific are cooling down from the recent El Niño, but the more nourishing types of cold-water copepods that juvenile salmon like to eat are still not evident off the West Coast.
Even though coastal upwelling has occurred in fits and starts, no real transition to spring-like conditions better for survival has yet happened. -B. R.
[4] Libby Sturgeon Pulse Complicates A Lousy Water-Year
The Corps of Engineers is planning to release a week-long pulse of water from behind Libby Dam next month to see if it will help wild ESA-listed sturgeon to spawn in their optimal habitat in the Kootenai River above Bonners Ferry, Idaho.
The action comes even though it will take place in a year where the water supply in the region is only about 69 percent of average, and could possibly have adverse effects on other resident fish below the dam, including ESA-listed bull trout.
Although the water won't be released from Lake Koocanusa until sometime next month, it's already making waves all the way to Portland, where the technical management team (TMT) that runs the Columbia is advising the Corps of Engineers as it develops this year's sturgeon strategy.
Parties downstream want that water as well, to boost flows for ESA-listed salmon and steelhead in the mainstem Columbia. The 2008 hydro BiOp calls for using the top 20 feet in the reservoir behind Libby for flow augmentation in the mainstem Columbia during the lowest 20 percent of water years, and only 10 feet in other years.
The tests are slated to take place over the next three years, even though conducting them might mean the reservoir doesn't fill. They are mandated by an agreement--between the state of Montana, the Kootenai Tribe, environmental groups and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service--that developed out of litigation over the agency's sturgeon BiOp.
The ESA-listed wild sturgeon haven't spawned since the late 1970s in the Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho, when flows were permanently curtailed by the Libby project.
Biologists hope the pulse will get the old fish to again head up to old spawning grounds, but it's got to be timed just right to increase the chances of its effectiveness. Flows would be above 30 kcfs during the pulse.
Water temperature and fish movement are the biggest factors in determining when the Corps pulls the plug at the dam and sends the 260 KAF downstream, said biologists at last week's TMT meeting. The Libby release will max-out powerhouse and spillway capacity at the same time.
To complicate matters, the state of Oregon and NOAA Fisheries want all of that 260 KAF released by the end of June, to help juvenile salmon in the mainstem Columbia deal with poor in-river migration conditions.
That means extra water will have to start being released by June 1, whether the sturgeon are ready or not--around 14.5 kcfs--or 18-20 kcfs total if it starts earlier.
Montana TMT representative Jim Litchfield told the team he was concerned that if the pulse didn't occur until the middle of June, "we're not going to have a lot of time. It might help to evacuate some of the 260 before the actual pulse."
Litchfield said Montana and the Kootenai Tribe were concerned about the possibility of a sudden drop in flows on July 1 to comply with Oregon's requirement and the adverse affects that might occur to resident fish and ESA-listed bull trout below the dam.
Corps representative Joel Fenolio from the Seattle District said a system operations request was being written that would include Litchfield's concern.
At the April 28 TMT meeting, parties discussed two options--whether to get the 260 KAF out of Libby by the end of June or ramp it down by the end of August.
The later ramp-down would effectively shift some spring flow to later in the season, but the difference would not be much, according to the Corps' analysis, less than 2 kcfs by the time the water got to McNary Dam on the mainstem Columbia.
At that meeting, USFWS and Idaho TMT representatives also supported the proposal as long as the 260 KAF was out of Libby by the end of June. Idaho felt the same way.
The Action Agencies--the Corps, the Bureau of Reclamation, and BPA--said they were OK with either one. Montana also said it could support either one, but would like to revisit the end-of-June requirement.
The final decision will be made by Action Agencies.
But last week, Litchfield told NW Fishletter that Montana and the Kootenai Tribe would prefer a gradual ramp-down over the first two weeks in July. He was also concerned that the Corps' water supply forecast may be too optimistic. It seems to be a bit biased, he said, and it could mean that Lake Koocanusa will not refill to full pool by the end of summer. He hinted that Montana may have to go to court to protect its resident fish.
At the May 26 TMT meeting, Litchfield said Montana could still not sign on with the May 18 system operations request for Libby . "The problem I'm concerned about," said Litchfield, "is whether we have enough volume to do the sturgeon pulse, have a more gradual rampdown, and still get the reservoir reasonably full."
It still wasn't clear when the pulse would take place, since cooler weather had also cooled the ardor of male sturgeon.
Other technical folks said it looked like Libby would end up 20 to 30 feet below full this year.
Corps officials said after Columbia River Treaty talks with Canadian officials May 25, there is a possibility that more water might be available at Libby to address Montana's concerns if Canada and the US trade water this summer. Evidently, BC Hydro would like to release more water from Arrow Lakes in June, while keeping Kootenai Lake fuller into July. The swap would effectively make Grand Coulee "whole," and allow for a slower release of the extra Libby water past June 30. The Corps said more analysis of the potential swap must be conducted. -B. R.
[5] Stelle Back As Regional NMFS Head
Northwest attorney Will Stelle has his old job back as regional NMFS administrator, as of June 1. Eric Schwaab, head of NOAA's Fisheries Service, announced Stelle's appointment to the regional seat May 13.
Schwaab himself is a recent appointment, serving since February after many years with the Maryland Department of Natural Resources.
"When I held this position during President Clinton's administration," said Stelle in a message to stakeholders, "I learned that close attention to the facts and to the science and close collaboration with the many other interested parties is vital to success. Listening well is both a skill and a strength."
After his first six-year stint at NMFS, Stelle joined the Seattle offices of K&L Gates, an international law firm, where he worked with clients on ESA compliance and Clean Water Act issues.
Coming from the staff of the White House Office of Environmental Quality, Stelle ran the regional NMFS office in the late 1990s, and oversaw development of the 2000 hydro BiOp that was successfully challenged in court by environmental and fishing groups, a decision that began the long remand that is still in process. The feds handed over their latest amended Columbia Basin salmon plan over to U.S. District Judge James Redden on May 20. -B. R.
[6] New Hatchery Gets Final Nod
The Northwest Power and Conservation Council has given the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation approval to construct a $40-million hatchery below Chief Joseph Dam on the Columbia River.
The project has been under review for seven years and will be funded by BPA.
"The Chief Joseph Hatchery will help restore salmon to the upper Columbia River watershed and provide new harvest opportunities for tribal and non-tribal fishers," Council Chair Bruce Measure said. "From the start, this has been a model project for its science-based approach, its demonstration of innovative harvest techniques to protect wild fish, and its remarkable collaboration among state, federal, and tribal governments."
The hatchery will help to rebuild spring and summer/fall chinook runs in the Okanogan River Basin and the Columbia River between the Okanogan and Chief Joseph Dam.
Eggs will come from broodstock in the Okanogan River, be raised at the hatchery, and juvenile fish will be released into six acclimation ponds in the Okanogan Basin, with a goal of releasing nearly 3 million smolts a year.
The new project is expected to provide added harvest opportunities for both tribal members and recreational fishers.
According to a NPCC press release, mid-Columbia PUDs could offset part of BPA's financial obligation to satisfy some of their own mitigation responsibilities incurred in relicensing their own projects.
Power Council spokesman John Harrison said a report by Council staffers estimated that the PUDs may pay up to 35 percent of the cost of the Chief Joseph hatchery production, to satisfy requirements in their own habitat conservation plans and settlement agreement.
It was also reported that Grant PUD is firming up a commitment to pay for 18.3 percent of capital and annual operating expenses of the hatchery, with Chelan and Douglas PUDs expected to continue talks for funding flexible shares of the new facility. -B. R.
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