[5] El Niño Shifts Into Neutral

The latest report from meteorologists Down Under says that most ENSO indicators in the equatorial Pacific have dropped below El Niño thresholds. That region of the ocean has been cooling since last December.

"The decline in the 2009/10 El Niño event is consistent with climate model predictions which suggest Pacific Ocean temperatures will continue to cool over the coming months," said the April 28 wrap up from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

"The majority of model predictions point towards cooler than normal Pacific Ocean conditions emerging during the southern winter. As autumn [southern hemisphere] is a typical transitional period for ENSO, model predictions through and beyond autumn are generally less reliable than at other times of the year."

Since March, the sea surface temperature of one large stretch of the equatorial Pacific has declined about .4 degrees C.

Off the Northwest coast, water temperatures have declined as well since March, when they were running up to 2 degrees F above average. By the end of April, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center showed that SST's had reached average temperatures for this time of year.

NOAA's May 3 El Niño update reported that several climate models suggest a transition to La Niña conditions by late summer or early fall.

In the meantime, most Northwest water users have dodged a bullet with late season snows in many Cascade watersheds, running most up to about 75 percent of average. But the Columbia Basin is still down in the 64 percent range, with the third lowest water supply in the past 50-year record. It has put BPA into a $233-million hole this year, according to spokesman Michael Milstein. He said the power marketing agency had originally expected to make $235 million this year.

It was a different story in California. After two drought years. snowpack in many Sierra basins was running at nearly 150 percent of average, thanks to the El Niño pattern. -B. R.

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