[1] Feds Prepare For Low-Flow Operations
Federal attorneys filed a proposed order on March 31 in U.S. District Court for spring dam operations that are in flux. They haven't yet decided whether to maximize barging for spring smolts this year because of expected low flows in the lower Snake River.
However, they said, the proposal will be discussed by agencies and sovereigns after the region's independent science panel weighs in with its own recommendation, which is due in early April.
No members of the coalition that supported the 2008 BiOp opposed entry of the proposed order. But plaintiff environmental and fishing groups, the Nez Perce Tribe, and the state of Oregon did oppose its entry, and said they would file a short memo by April 7 that would explain their opposition and include an alternative order.
Their opposition is likely fueled by the fact that the feds' proposal would end spill at collector dams to boost numbers of fish routed to barges--a strategy that could improve spring chinook returns and double steelhead numbers, the feds told the region's independent science panel last month.
Both sides faced off in front of the Independent Scientific Advisory Board in Portland on March 12. Representatives from USFWS and ODFW focused on potential adverse impacts to sockeye and lamprey from the feds' proposal, with little to no data at all to back up their positions.
Ed Bowles, ODFW's fish division director, pushed for continuing to "spread the risk," by keeping spill at collector projects. He never argued the feds' point that more barging would boost overall survival of chinook and steelhead, but said there was "intriguing" data from 2007 survival studies that suggested spill could boost survival of inriver migrants in such a low-flow year.
However, NMFS statistician Steve Smith presented some numbers that suggested a maxed-out barging policy could easily double adult returns of ESA-listed steelhead if the feds' proposal was adopted this spring, compared to operations in 2007 when spill was in place and only 30 percent were transported.
Smith said that without spill, about 85 percent would have been barged. Using estimates of smolts expected to reach Lower Granite Dam this spring, Smith said the maximum barging policy might add 46,000 more steelhead-to-adult returns.
Spill proponents have already hauled out their big guns to fight the feds' proposal. In a March 23 op-ed piece in The Oregonian, retired IDFG director Rod Sando and several other retired fisheries officials said "science clearly demonstrates that spilling water over the dams increases the survival of young salmon migrating to the sea. The increased adult salmon returns over the past several years support the science."
They said "continuing spill, even in low-flow years, is an investment in the future." But they forgot to mention that latest results from the Fish Passage Center showed that 2007 outmigrants (both spring chinook and steelhead) fared better in barges than inriver, despite the added spill from the court order in that low-flow year. The FPC has been a staunch proponent of continuing the court-ordered spill program this year.
The feds said they expect a recommendation from the ISAB in early April, which will then be discussed by other sovereigns and agencies in the Regional Implementation Operations Group, followed by an operational decision by mid-April.
"All of this is expected to be complete well before a potential low-flow, maximum-transport operation would begin at Lower Granite Dam," the feds said.
Their proposed order calls for maximizing transport sometime between April 20 and May 1, and continuing throughout the spring.
This year's spring spill vs. transport issue will likely be sorted out by U.S. District Court Judge Garr King, instead of Judge James Redden, who said he would be gone for the month of April.
BiOp plaintiffs took issue last week with the federal proposal. They filed a response in Oregon District Court that relied heavily on a critical February review of a recent NOAA Fisheries report on fish transport by the Fish Passage Center.
Plaintiffs said that court-ordered spill levels should be maintained unless the Court itself approves a request from the feds to modify spill operations. They argued that this precautionary approach is necessary to "avoid an unwarranted rollback of inriver salmon protections" in place since 2006 when ordered by Judge James Redden.
"These court-ordered operations have provided demonstrable survival benefits to spring migrating juvenile salmon and steelhead," said joint plaintiffs Northwest Wildlife Federation and the state of Oregon, citing the February FPC memo.
But plaintiffs neglected to point out that although the FPC memo showed added spill likely improved juvenile inriver survival in a low-flow year like 2007, it also showed that chinook and steelhead barged in 2007 exhibited higher smolt-to-adult return rates than the inriver migrants.
That was a point federal scientists made in their proposal for increasing transport this spring that was under review by the regional panel of independent scientists (see story 2). -Bill Rudolph
[2] Science Panel Pans Feds' Low-Flow Transport Proposal
After reviewing a federal proposal to shut spill and maximize barging for fish at collector dams this spring, the region's independent science panel has recommended sticking with the current spill and barge scenario that spreads the risks among different salmon species.
In a report released April 9, they said one year of data from the 2007 outmigration that shows benefits for barged Snake spring chinook and steelhead isn't enough to reach any firm conclusions, and it may be more important than ever to maintain the spill-transport balance of recent years, so the region can learn more about the effects of partial spill in low-flow years.
NOAA Fisheries had presented its proposal to the ISAB in early March, at a meeting where the panel also heard from critics from USFWS, and the state of Oregon, who quoted liberally from a February memo from the Fish Passage Center. The memo said that ending spring spill could have adverse effects on ESA-listed sockeye and lamprey, issues that echoed concerns from an earlier ISAB flow/transport review completed in September 2008.
Critics of the feds' latest proposal also said the added barging would produce more straying of returning steelhead into Oregon rivers, which could have detrimental effects on the mid-Columbia steelhead ESU, which is listed for protection under the Endangered Species Act.
The ISAB's latest report didn't quibble with the feds' analysis that suggested both Snake River spring chinook and steelhead stocks would benefit from the extra barging, but they pointed to the uncertainties that haven't been resolved in regard to the barging of sockeye.
The ISAB noticed a "sense of urgency" in the dialog about spill and transportation this year, made even more pointed by the probability of poor ocean conditions for fish once they get to the salt water, and said though NOAA put forth a "compelling argument, the lost ability to learn more about these effects may be equally compelling."
They said more data is needed to sort out effects of flow, spill, temperature, run size, and transport on fish left in the river before any solid, scientifically-based management decisions can be made.
Now that data has come in from the 2007 migration, it does show that spill has helped improve inriver survival in that year of low flows, but still not enough to beat the overall benefits of barging.
The ISAB recognized this in its latest report, but said the debate over transport and spill won't be resolved over the next few years, and ending spill now could compromise the comparison of migrant and transport effects in extreme years, which could mean it might take even longer to gain useful information.
They said understanding the tradeoffs over spill and transport will be increasingly important as effects of climate change begin to be felt, when declining snowpack and earlier melt will likely lead to shifts in timing of fish runs. But they don't suggest how long it might take to collect data from extreme low-water years, which, after all, only seem to appear two or three times a decade.
Environmental groups supported the science panel's report. "We certainly hope they (federal managers) will listen to what the ISAB said and will not try to terminate spill at these dams," Earthjustice attorney Todd True, told The News Tribune (Tacoma).
Northwest RiverPartners, a coalition of BPA customers and river users, has supported the federal proposal and released an April 12 statement that said, in part, "While it is appealing to gather more information to address scientific uncertainty, the law, existing data, and real world conditions require NOAA Fisheries to take actions that are most protective of the listed species ... Northwest RiverPartners urges NOAA Fisheries to implement the law and not undertake grand experiments at the expense of listed salmon and steelhead. This is not about power or dollars -- which will be scarce during this year's low river flows -- this is about doing what's best for the fish."
Other critics of the ISAB report said the panel's position that says spill more closely mimics natural situations and ecological processes is more of an academic concept than anything based on the real-world river, where nothing is natural anymore. They say spill may get juvenile fish past dams quicker this year, but the reservoirs will still be extremely slow-going and full of predators -- and not just the usual bottleneck on the lower Snake where Caspian terns have preyed on steelhead. The long reach behind John Day Pool in the mainstem Columbia will likely be a lethal stretch for inriver migrants, they say, and the low flows may slow their migration so much that by the time they reach the estuary, ocean conditions may have deteriorated considerably.
Nearly, two years ago, The ISAB's 2008 report panned the hydro BiOp's strategy of ending spill at collector dams for two weeks in May to maximize barging in even average water years, and called for continuing the spread-the-risk approach, though feds said their ISAB-approved COMPASS model estimated an 18 percent-improvement in steelhead returns over the court-ordered spill regime that had been in place since 2006.
At the time, ISAB chair Rich Alldredge admitted his group had no data to back up its concerns. At an October 2008 meeting of regional policymakers, he said that the science panel's embrace of the spread-the-risk policy was more of a "philosophical concern" than a position based on data, though he did say juvenile survival results from 2006 and 2007 showed some evidence that more spill "works."
The feds have said a decision on this year's transport operations will be made after consultation with action agencies and sovereign states and tribes, and input from the ISAB. However, with the board now on record to maintain the current policy, it may be nearly impossible for the feds to implement their maxed-out barging strategy this year, even though they have said it could double steelhead returns.
In a letter to Oregon District Court judge Garr King, federal attorneys asked for a slight extension before they tell the Court what they plan on doing about transport this spring, because sovereigns can't meet to discuss the ISAB report until April 16. They said they would explain their position on the spill/transport issue to the Court by April 19. -B. R.
[3] Corps Announces Plan For Possible Breaching Studies
The Corps of Engineers finished mapping out how it will evaluate the benefits from breaching the lower Snake River dams if ESA-listed fish runs suffer significant declines in the near future.
The Obama administration considers breaching a "contingency of last resort," but the study plan is part of the material added to the 2008 hydro BiOp to satisfy U.S. District Judge James Redden, who back in February gave the feds three more months to shore up the salmon plan.
The study plan, released March 30, stressed that the Corps does not now have authority to take out the dams, and that such drastic action might have adverse consequences to some listed stocks, in both the short and long terms.
The first phase would take two years, and cover technical issues associated with the aquatic ecosystem, hydrology, engineering, and economics of potential breaching.
If the results suggest that breaching would be a viable option, then a second phase would kick in to start the public process, which would include updating earlier studies on its effects on hydropower, navigation, recreation, irrigation, and commercial fishing.
The Corps' study plan noted that opening the 140-mile stretch to a free-flowing condition could mean the lower Snake will be hotter in low-flow years, but would generally heat and cool faster than the impounded river.
Changes in water temperatures could affect water releases from Idaho's Dworshak Reservoir now used to cool flows during the fish migration season, and impact Clearwater River salmon and steelhead stocks.
Though removal of the dams would end direct mortality from dam passage, it would also reduce habitat for over-wintering juvenile fall chinook that linger in reservoirs until the following spring. This component makes up about half the numbers of returning adults.
Migrating spring chinook would likely suffer short-term losses from the dam-removal process, mainly from the increased release of sediments.
Taking out the dams would also considerably reduce the surface area of the river, from 33,000 acres to 19,000, which might increase avian predation. Predation by reservoir-dwelling pikeminnow might be reduced, but the numbers of smallmouth bass increase in free-flowing waters.
The study plan also said the potential benefits to fish from breaching might be significantly reduced by overall effects of climate change, which could reduce fish abundance by 20 to 50 percent, so that breaching would "have a greatly reduced benefit on salmonid recovery." -B. R.
[4] Spring Chinook Beginning To Show
Commercial gillnetters in the lower Columbia River were allowed to get their nets wet for one evening late last month, chasing the beginnings of this year's expected blockbuster upriver spring chinook run--a return that is expected to top out around half a million fish.
Harvest managers opened the netters' season on March 30, after test fishing showed that more than half the week's run was made up of upriver stocks, and numbers of winter steelhead were declining. Until then, most of the early run was headed for lower river tributaries like the Willamette.
They expected the gillnetters to catch between 6,000 and 10,000 springers in the smaller-meshed tanglenets, to reduce mortality of wild chinook and steelhead that must be released. The final tally from the night's fishing was only about 3,100 chinook.
In a March 29 report, managers said sportfishers had caught about 2,500 springers by March 26. They estimated sporties had taken 31,000 trips on the river to hook the chinook, but they said catch rates improved significantly in the third week of March. About 350 wild springers were released by then.
Managers also curtailed commercial netting in select areas out of the mainstem Columbia because of higher-than-expected impacts on upriver chinook.
However, the situation improved dramatically the following week. Anglers caught another 4,900 springers, bringing their total to nearly 7,000, with more than 1,100 wild ones released.
By April 4, the total recreational catch was pushing 10,000, and the river was full of sporties. On that day, 900 boats were counted on the Columbia River between Sauvie Island and the I-5 bridge.
For the past five years, the spring run has appeared later than normal, and has shown the same inclination this year. Only 2,545 chinook had been counted at Bonneville Dam by April 8. In 2009, only 603 springers had been counted by then; in 2006, only 112. Back in the record-setting year of 2001, nearly 68,000 fish had passed the dam by the first week in April.
However, on April 10, more than 3,500 fish were counted at the dam, and by April 12, the spring total had added up to nearly 10,000 fish. Last year, only 1,110 had shown up by now.
Managers think colder water temperatures play a role in fish arriving later, but temperatures at the dam were running about average by April 12.
This year's spring harvest will be managed more conservatively than in recent years, because the run predictions have been overly optimistic, which has tended to shortchange upriver tribal fishers. Thus, the run will be managed as if it were 40 percent smaller to build in a buffer, in case the actual run is smaller than the preseason estimate. By mid-May, if the run reaches predicted levels, then harvest opportunities will increase.
The missed predictions in recent years led to higher non-treaty spring catches in the Columbia than treaty catches in 2008 and 2009. Treaty fishers will be allowed 14.3 percent of the spring run, non-treaty harvesters 2.7 percent.
"This approach gives us the flexibility to match fishing opportunities to the actual size of the run," said Guy Norman, WDFW's southwest regional director, in a late February press release. "As we've seen in the past two years, it can create real problems when runs fall short of expectations."
Managers had a hard time coming up with this year's prediction, since the previous year's jack count, the main predictor in their harvest model, was off the charts in 2009.
Acknowledging that their old way of doing things didn't seem to be working anymore, they blended the results from seven different harvest models to reach that 470,000-fish estimate. That would be the largest run since 1938, when fish counters began tallying chinook at the brand new Bonneville Dam, surpassing the 440,000-fish return in 2001. -B. R.
[5] Despite More Precip, Water Supply Drops 2 Percent
The latest January-through-July water supply forecast for the Columbia at The Dalles has declined to 65 percent of average, despite some serious late March precipitation and colder temperatures. The April final forecast released April 7 was down 2 percent from the March final forecast of 67 percent.
NOAA's Northwest River Forecast Center estimated Grand Coulee inflow at 73 percent of average, also down two percent. Water in the lower Snake was down to 55 percent from 57 percent for Lower Granite reservoir inflows.
The April-through September water supply for the Willamette stayed steady at 83 percent. The Skagit dropped 3 percent, to 80 percent of average.
The Yakima Basin water supply forecast dropped 3 percent to 62 percent of average, at Keechelus Lake inflows. while further east in Idaho's Clearwater drainage, Dworshak Reservoir inflows also dropped 3 percent to 49 percent of average.
March precipitation for the Columbia Basin above The Dalles was pegged at about 81 percent of average, while the October-through-March precip level was 79 percent of average.
A few places actually saw above-average levels of precipitation. The Willamette Basin received 115 percent of its normal rainfall for March, while the Hood/Lower Deschutes region got 157 percent.
Some areas, notably the middle Cascades, received heavy snowfall in early April, which boosted snowpack levels to near normal. The Yakima Basin is now at 92 percent of average, and the Lower Columbia (Washington side) is running 97 percent, but the Columbia Basin above the Methow is only 76 percent of average. -B. R.
[6] Corps Alters Spill Plan To Accommodate 10 Million Hatchery Fish
With 10 million hatchery chinook scheduled to be released from Columbia River hatcheries this week, some basin fish managers asked the Corps of Engineers to crank up the spill at Bonneville to help get them past the dam.
At issue are the low flows in the lower river--barely 100 kcfs. With 30 kcfs need to run the powerhouse turbines, and 12k needed to boost fish exiting from the corner collector at PowerHouse II and run the sluiceway, there may be less than 75 kcfs at times available for spill, which is the BiOp minimum for spring spill at the project.
But the Corps of Engineers was prepared to spill below that level, down to 50 kcfs if need be. Below that, it said survival through the spillway route at Bonneville declines fast. Slower exit times for smolts below the spillway leaves juvenile fish more vulnerable to predation by pikeminnow.
The 2008 BiOp calls for 100 kcfs spill at Bonneville, 24 hours a day in the spring to aid migrating fish, but that won't happen until river flows improve. However, the Corps told attendees at last week's TMT [Technical Management Team] meeting that they may have to shut it down if it drops below 50 kcfs.
They said limited survival data shows significant declines in juvenile fish survival below that level of spill.
Some fish managers want spill to help the young salmon--mainly 6.5 million fall chinook that will be released from the USFWS Spring Creek Hatchery above Bonneville on Monday. They say low water temperatures means predation by pikeminnow will likely be minimal. The USFWS, the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, and the Shoshone-Bannock and Nez Perce Tribes made a formal request for the spill last week. They wanted the Corps to reduce its minimum spill level to 50 kcfs, and even less.
"Some spill is better than nothing," said USFWS representative David Wills.
But that it a debatable point. Survival data in hand shows that the corner collector route past the dam, which will be in operation, shows fish survival in the upper 90-percent-rage range, Corps TMT representative Doug Baus from the Reservoir Control Center later told NW Fishletter. He said spillway survival is typically 5 percent lower than that at the corner collector.
NOAA Fisheries staffer Paul Wagner told the TMT that there is no survival data for this time of the year. NOAA seemed inclined to support some level of spill below 50 kcfs.
The BiOp calls for spring spill to begin at Bonneville Dam on April 10, but the Corps was still ruminating about the situation after fish advocates said the big blast of hatchery smolts would probably mean gatewells and the bypass system would be jammed and a lot of them would be killed unless spill was added to the passage routes at the dam, just about any amount of spill.
There was some talk of using water from John Day Pool to boost spill downstream, but dam operators said it was too late to start such a scheme.
Oregon and Idaho representatives worried that using John Day water might adversely impact migrants traveling through that reservoir. There was enough uncertainty about the proposed operation to keep them from feeling comfortable signing off on it. But there weren't many smolts to worry about that far upriver. Only 20 or so had passed McNary Dan since April 1.
One commenter at the TMT meeting suggested that maybe hatchery operators shouldn't release their fish all at once in a low-flow year.
Managers said coming rain events may help flows enough in the near-term to keep spill levels adequate.
On April 8, outflow at Bonneville Dam was only 118 kcfs. Last year, it was running 146 kcfs at this point. Water temperatures were nearly the same both years, 7.8 degrees on April 7 and 7.6 degrees C. last year.
After more discussion with NOAA Fisheries and other action agencies, Corps officials decided last Thursday that it will not stop spill at the 50-kcfs level after all, but spill whatever is left after running turbines and fish passage facilities.
In 2001, when Columbia River flows were even lower, spill did not begin at Bonneville Dam until May. -B. R.
[7] El Niño Slowly Subsiding
The El Niño weather pattern that has been responsible for the Northwest's extra-mild winter and low precipitation is expected to last through the spring, but climate scientists say it's finally on its way out.
In a March 17 update, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said "computer models suggest Pacific Ocean temperatures will cool steadily over the coming months, returning to neutral levels during the southern autumn. Such timing is typical of the decay stage of an El Niño event."
The Aussies said that subsurface ocean waters in the central Pacific had cooled since March 1 following some renewed warming in February, after trade winds weakened over the western and central Pacific during late January and early February.
But they also said eastern Pacific subsurface waters had warmed slightly, though surface temperatures were headed lower near the South American coast.
Data from a satellite that measures wave heights indicated that a large wave of warm water (called a Kelvin wave) was moving eastward from the area of weakening trade winds. It's just one of several that were spawned by the latest El Niño.
The Aussies' Mar. 31 update said, "The most noticeable feature of the past fortnight has been the decrease in Pacific Ocean heat content, with values east of the dateline dropping to their lowest values since April 2009, indicating the deeper ocean is also slowly cooling. Likewise, sea surface height in the central and eastern Pacific is also decreasing."
In a recent press release from the Jet Propulsion Lab, oceanographer Bill Patzert said he would not be surprised if this latest and largest Kelvin wave is the "last hurrah" for this long-lasting El Niño.
"Since June 2009, this El Niño has waxed and waned, impacting many global weather events," said Patzert. "I, and many other scientists, expect the current El Niño to leave the stage sometime soon. What comes next is not yet clear, but a return to El Niño's dry sibling, La Niña, is certainly a possibility, though by no means a certainty. We'll be monitoring conditions closely over the coming weeks and months."
The April 5 NOAA El Niño update said most computer models predicted a return to neutral conditions by July, but several others pointed to the "potential" of continued El Niño conditions or a shift into La Niña conditions by next fall.
The current January-through-July water supply forecast from NOAA's Northwest River Forecast Center calls for only 65 percent of average for the Columbia River at The Dalles, and that could go lower. March precip levels for the Columbia Basin above both Grand Coulee and The Dalles have been 81 percent of average. -B. R.
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