[1] Water Supply Keeps Dropping, Fish Ops May Change
With the Columbia River's water supply shrinking at each updated forecast, Basin stakeholders are jockeying for position in a battle over fish barging that is still largely going on outside of the public's purview.
The Feb. 25 forecast from NOAA's Northwest River Forecast Center pegged the January-July water supply at The Dalles at 69 percent of average, a few percent lower than their previous forecast. On Mar. 5, it dropped even further, to 67 percent, which would make 2010 the 4th driest out of the last 50 years.
But further upriver on the Snake, conditions are much worse. The January-July forecast for inflow at Lower Granite has dropped to 57 percent of average.
That means average spring flows will likely be below 65 kcfs on the lower Snake, and the possibility of suspending BiOp Judge James Redden's court-ordered spill regime in favor of the hydro BiOp's own prescription to aid fish in low-flow years--putting more in barges to keep them out of an increasingly hostile hydro system where low flows and higher water temperatures sap their strength and make them more vulnerable to predators like pikeminnow and terns.
On Feb. 25, NOAA Fisheries released a plan for doing just that (see story 2).
Northwest RiverPartners, the large coalition of river users, made up of farmers, municipalities, utilities and ports, has called for following the dictates of the 2008 BiOp to barge more smolts and start transporting them earlier.
"Barging as many fish as possible could be a lifesaver this year," said NRP executive director Terry Flores in the coalition's February newsletter.
Flores noted that a previous NMFS analysis found that the judge's added spill at dams, which reduces the number of fish guided to barges, would reduce overall steelhead returns by 14 percent and spring chinook returns by 3 percent when flows on the lower Snake were between 65 kcfs and 80 kcfs. Average flows that time of year are around 82 kcfs.
That analysis by the feds was actually contained in court documents filed in December 2008, as part of a declaration by Corps of Engineers' biologist Rock Peters.
It also found that if flows stayed below 65 kcfs, the benefits of barging steelhead actually decreased from 14 percent down to a mere 4 percent over the judge's spill regime.
The result sounds somewhat counter-intuitive, but one biologist familiar with the COMPASS model used by the feds said it's probably because the juvenile steelhead start their migration much later in a low-flow year, so starting the transportation program earlier in the season wouldn't really capture that many more fish.
In late January, NOAA Fisheries biologist Ritchie Graves told NW Fishletter that if the current forecast played out, spring flows at Lower Granite would likely be below 65 kcfs this year, which is the 2008 BiOp's threshold for beginning a maxed-out barging policy on April 3 and continuing it until the end of May. That would mean no spill at dams where the fish were collected.
The water supply forecast has dropped another 7 percent since Graves made his pronouncement, but that hasn't stopped spill advocates from marshalling their forces behind a recent memo from the Fish Passage Center.
The Feb. 9 memo takes issue with a recent NOAA Fisheries review of transport that found significant benefits from barging in most years, and also wades into the debate over whether to boost barging this spring.
The FPC memo itself doesn't say that barging more steelhead will be detrimental to adult returns, it just points out that if spill is curtailed to allow more fish in barges, that might have adverse consequences for other salmon species like sockeye and coho, for which we have little to no data, and could be bad for juvenile lamprey as well.
The FPC memo says keeping spill in place at dams where fish are collected for barging will improve adult returns of inriver migrants--it just doesn't point out what its own graphs clearly show, that wild and hatchery steelhead return rates were still two times higher when the fish were barged in 2007--when the judge's enhanced spill program was firmly in place, and five to ten times better before then.
The debate will soon go into stealth mode as parties convene in the RIOG process--when the Regional Implementation Oversight Group made up of sovereigns and federal agencies meets to hash out this year's operations in secret.
But fish and dam managers are increasingly aware of NMFS' latest research on the barging issue. In a Feb. 17 presentation at the weekly meeting of the Technical Management Team, where fish and dam managers get together to discuss operations, NMFS scientists said via PowerPoint that recent operations (more spill) had improved the performance of inriver migrants, "and lessened differences in SARs between transports and migrants with a transport benefit occurring later in the season (see at TMT website).
"However, transport still returns more adults for most stocks, especially later in the migration season, so transporting fewer fish in recent years has resulted in substantially fewer adult fish returning" [Bill Rudolph].
[2] Science Panel To Examine Barging Question
NOAA Fisheries has decided to take a gamble with its proposal to stop spill and boost fish barging in this low-flow year by letting the region's independent science panel weigh in on the topic. The feds say fish would gain a significant survival benefit from the change in operations.
That could be risky, because the panel decided in 2008 that the feds' hydro BiOp should keep both spill and barging strategies to spread the risk.
The feds' Feb. 25 proposal is also contrary to U.S. District Judge James Redden's court-ordered spill regime.
However, that hasn't stopped federal fish managers, who are facing the fourth lowest water supply in the past 50 years. They want spill ended in late April to capture as many spring chinook and steelhead as possible and barge them through May. They claim to have data backing up the proposal.
But two recent memos from the Fish Passage Center have taken issue with both the feds' December barging review and its recent proposal, and argue for continuing the judge's spill regime.
Both sides faced off in front of the Independent Scientific Advisory Board on March 12 in Portland. Representatives from USFWS and ODFW focused on potential adverse impacts to sockeye and lamprey from the feds' proposal, and Ed Bowles, ODFW's fish division director, pushed for continuing to "spread the risk," by keeping spill at collector projects. Bowles never argued the feds' point that more barging would boost overall survival of chinook and steelhead, but said there was "intriguing" data from 2007 survival studies that suggested spill could boost survival of inriver migrants in such a low-flow year.
However, NMFS statistician Steve Smith presented some numbers that suggested a maxed-out barging policy could easily double adult returns of ESA-listed steelhead if their proposal was adopted this spring, compared to operations in 2007 when spill was in place and only 30 percent were transported. Smith said that without spill, about 85 percent would have been barged.
The feds are blunt in their analysis. "Based on consideration of the available information," said their proposal, "we conclude that continuing the court-ordered spill/ transport operations in low-flow years like 2007 would result in substantial losses (in terms of adult returns) of wild SR [Snake River] steelhead and spring/summer chinook salmon relative to maximum transport operations under these environmental conditions."
The feds said 2007 spring flows in the lower Snake were about 61 kcfs, which is similar to what is expected this spring. The added spill meant only about 25 percent of the wild spring/summer chinook were barged that year, according to NMFS. The FPC pegged it even lower, at only 17 percent.
NMFS estimated about 41 percent of the wild and hatchery steelhead were barged in 2007. Steelhead travel higher in the water column and are more easily corralled by dam bypass systems for routing to barges.
But critics of the feds' proposal, such as the Fish Passage Center, say increased barging might hurt sockeye and lamprey, even though they could cite no real evidence for the claim.
In its proposal, NOAA Fisheries said there was no "credible" data to support that notion, nor should critics be concerned over the slightly increased straying rate of barged steelhead (3 percent) when they return as adults. NOAA Fisheries managers have essentially called the science panel's bluff.
Impacts to wild Snake chinook and steelhead "exceed the likely or potential impacts of maximum transport operations to the other species considered above," the feds said.
The feds noted that an earlier FPC memo critiquing last December's NMFS transport review had focused on making the case that improvements in inriver conditions had boosted inriver survival, but didn't consider the conditions juvenile fish will face this year.
The feds pointed out that the FPC's own analysis found that wild chinook and steelhead did better by being barged in 2007; annual smolt-to-adult return rates were 15 percent higher for the barged springers and nearly 300 percent better for wild steelhead.
However, the feds also said that average seasonal SAR estimates don't tell them much, since weekly estimates of both groups vary considerably over the year. But they said "it is clear that in low-flow conditions such as 2007, SARs of wild, transported fish, especially in May, are significantly and substantially higher than SARs of wild inriver migrants (either undetected fish, those released upstream of LGR, or those released at LGR or LGS).
They said that repeating the 2007 spill/transport operation in the future was too risky, since it would "likely result in substantially fewer adults returning to the Snake River basin in subsequent years."
NOAA Fisheries managers have essentially called the science panel's bluff, since the ISAB recommended in its 2008 report that "whenever river conditions allow during the late April-May period, a strategy allowing for concurrent transportation and spill is prudent."
NMFS said it looked at the data from 2007 and concluded it would not be prudent to spill at the three dams where fish are collected for barging this year.
The feds specifically asked the ISAB if they had correctly interpreted the ISAB's earlier recommendation, and if not, to explain the panel's reasoning behind it.
The September 2008 ISAB review recognized that the steelhead would benefit from barging, but it noted that more spill would likely improve inriver survival of migrating salmonids--especially sockeye, and maybe even lamprey--even though it noted that "definitive data are lacking."
The science panel's review pointed out that the major portion of the sockeye run would pass lower Snake dams during the new BiOp's no-spill period. That means the fish would have to negotiate either turbines or bypass systems, where the sockeye seem to exhibit relatively high levels of descaling--a condition that could easily lead to future mortality.
The panel's report didn't help the feds argue their case for their new BiOp's barging strategy in litigation over the salmon plan. Judge Redden wasn't impressed with the feds' argument for maxed-out barging for two weeks in May, after the panel's recommendations came out, even though the federal strategy was derived from results from their ISAB-endorsed survival model, COMPASS.
After the report came out in 2008, others in the region were dismayed that the ISAB had strayed into the policy arena, beyond specific questions related to salmon recovery science that it had generally dealt with in the past.
However, no matter how the science panel comes down on the barging question, it still won't be the final arbiter.
As reported in this year's draft river operations plan, the Corps of Engineers said if seasonal average flows on the Snake are below 65 kcfs, it expects to begin transporting fish between April 20 and May 1, with a decision on the specifics of the spill/transport question coming after talks with regional sovereigns and NOAA, along with the ISAB input, to consider the best available science. -B. R.
[3] Better Days Coming, Say Harvest Managers
West Coast salmon managers are looking forward to counting a lot more salmon this year, even in beleaguered California, where the fall chinook run may jump from last year's worst ever (40,000) to 245,000 fish. Both commercial and recreational fishers may get some fishing time in southern waters this year (see story 4).
However, regional salmon wonks are taking that forecast with a grain of salt. The 95-percent confidence interval for that 245,000-fish estimate ranges between zero and 533,000.This means they are 95-percent sure that the run will be somewhere between nothing and half a million.
The Pacific Management Council, in preparation to set fishing seasons for 2010, announced the numbers recently in its first preseason report. Staffers are still reeling from their 2009 forecast--which turned out to be 300 percent too optimistic for the unlucky Sacramento run, once the backbone of the California commercial salmon harvest. It's been victimized lately by poor ocean conditions and water fights.
"The forecast for Sacramento River fall chinook will undoubtedly draw the most attention, given the extensive fishing closures the past two years to protect this valuable run of fish," said council Chairman David Ortmann. "It is important to recognize that at our Sacramento meeting, we will be preparing three fishing season options for further analysis and public review, and won't make a final decision until the April 10-15 meeting in Portland, Ore."
The PFMC press release put a good face on its prediction and suggested that some ocean fishing opportunity existed for the Sacramento run this year. Coastal fishermen in northern California and southern Oregon are hoping they might get a bit of a commercial season this year, after spending most of the past two years tied to the dock.
The brightest spot in the California scene is the Klamath River, where the salmon runs were not as adversely affected by poor ocean conditions from 2004-2006.
With many more age-4 fall chinook expected to return this year than in 2009, the run should meet its rebuilding goal, said PFMC staffer Chuck Tracey.
That would mean a return of 40,000-plus natural spawners for the second year in a row, which would allow for some recreational and tribal fishing like last year, when 101,000 fall hatchery and natural adults returned to the Klamath. About 40,000 of them were harvested--36,000 by tribal fishers and 4,000 by recreational fishers.
Without fishing this year, the council estimates 86,100 natural spawners would return.
In the Columbia, forecasters are calling for an upriver bright return of 311,000 fall chinook, nearly 50 percent better than last year's return and better than the 10-year average by about one-third.
Lower Columbia wild fall chinook are expected to be better than last year as well, with a prediction of 9,700 adults--still well below the 10-year average of 15,000.
Another 90,000 hatchery fish are expected to return to the lower river, about 118 percent of last year's run.
The Spring Creek Hatchery return above Bonneville Dam is looking at the largest forecast on record--169,000 fall chinook. That is 345 percent of the 2009 return and 180-percent of the 10-year average.
Mid-Columbia brights are expected to do about as well as last year, with 73,000 predicted to show.
In Puget Sound, about 226,000 summer/fall chinook are pegged to return, a few thousand higher than last year's prediction. It also includes about 43,000 natural chinook. Last year's actual returns to the Sound are still being tallied.
Meanwhile, anticipation is growing for the upriver spring chinook run in the Columbia--estimated to be close to 500,000 fish this year. At last week's meeting of the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, IDFG staffer Ed Schriever said his agency expected about 28,500 wild spring/summer chinook will pass Lower Granite Dam this year, part of the 180,000-fish run.
IDFG's estimate is based on the differences between jack counts for wild and hatchery fish, said IDFG's Alan Byrne, who noted 2009's wild spring jack count at the dam was about 1.5 times higher than they have seen, while the hatchery jack count was about four times higher than what they've seen before.
IDFG's wild estimate is considerably less than the prediction from harvest managers on the basin's technical advisory committee, who have pegged the wild Snake spring run at 73,000 to the mouth of the Columbia. Byrne said TAC estimates are derived from fish numbers at Bonneville Dam and the Snake component is derived from the its proportion to the total dam count in previous years. IDFG's estimate, when backcast to the mouth of the river, would be in the 40,000-fish range.
In 2001, about 45,000 wild spring/summers returned to Lower Granite Dam, according to TAC figures, the highest number since the lower Snake dams were built. In 1995, only about a thousand returned. -B. R.
[4] Some Salmon Fishing Possible Off California This Year
The Pacific Fishery Management Council announced last Thursday three draft options for managing salmon fisheries off the West Coast. They will pick one by mid-April.
The most optimistic option calls for California and southern Oregon commercial fisherman to begin their season May 1 and share about 100,000 fall chinook with recreational fishers, with an expected spawning escapement of 150,000 adults to the Sacramento River.
A second option would split up about 60,000 chinook and a third calls for no fishing at all, which would return 230,000 fall chinook to the Sacramento system, according to PFMC estimate.
But managers may err of the side of caution, after last year's huge error in predicting the size of the fall run. The council overestimated the fall run by 300 percent.
Only about 40,000 returned--the lowest number on record, and far below the minimum conservation goal of 122,000. Last year, most commercial fishing was closed for the second year in a row.
Meanwhile, Washington coastal fishers are expected to have plenty of fishing time, with commercials and sportfishers expected to split about 100,000 chinook and 110,000 marked coho. -B. R.
[5] Six Sea Lions Euthanized At Bonneville Dam
The Corps of Engineers has reported that six California sea lions have been euthanized so far this year at Bonneville Dam. Most were trapped on Mar. 9, along with two Steller sea lions, who were released. Four traps have been placed near the corner collector at Bonneville Dam.
Observers have tallied more than 900 sturgeon caught by Steller sea lions, and 130 steelhead eaten by California sea lions. So far, only one chinook salmon has been seen to be eaten by a sea lion, but the spring run hasn't yet materialized.
The Corps' latest report says up to 31 Stellers have been seen at the dam, along with a dozen California sea lions. At least 10 of the sea lions have been seen before and are on the list for removal.
The Corps said they have not found any facilities willing to take any captured mammals off their hands. Last year, after some trapped California sea lions passed physical exams, they were placed at several aquariums around the country. But others were not so lucky.
Twenty sea lions were captured last year, six were branded or tagged and released, four were removed to aquariums and 10 were euthanized after it was determined they carried diseases that made them undesirable for relocation.
Readily admitting to using many assumptions in its analysis, a Corps' report from last November estimated that the 25 sea lions removed over the past two years has allowed a thousand or more extra spring chinook to pass the dam. That's only about .3 percent of the 297,000 spring chinook adults counted passing the dam in 2008 and 2009.
This year, nearly 500,000 spring chinook are expected to show. Last year, the marine mammals near the dam were estimated to have consumed nearly 3 percent of the run. But another thousand or so sea lions hang out in the lower Columbia and they may be eating 20,000 chinook every spring, a NMFS official said last year. -B. R.
[6] Puget Sound Orcas Part Of Slow Food Movement
It hasn't been the most glamorous field work for NOAA researchers but someone had to do it--follow ESA-listed killer whales around the San Juans in a small boat scooping up bits of poop and vomit from southern resident orcas to get better clues about their diet. And as they had suspected, local salmon, especially chinook, make up a good part of it.
"Our findings identified specific Chinook stocks from Canada's Fraser River that fish managers need to pay particular attention to because these killer whales are so dependent on them," said Dr. Brad Hanson, lead author of the study and a marine mammal scientist with NOAA's Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle.
The study, titled "Species and stock identification of prey consumed by endangered 'Southern Resident' killer whales in their summer range" was published in the journal Endangered Species Research. Collaborators included scientists from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada and in Washington, Cascadia Research Collective, the Center for Whale Research, the University of Washington and the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.
The scientists estimated that up to 90 percent of the chinook eaten by the whales were from BC's Fraser River. The whales ate mostly salmon from the Upper Fraser in June, the Middle Fraser in July, and from the South Thompson and Lower Fraser in August and September. Just a small fraction of the samples collected came from Puget Sound rivers.
One surprise finding was that the orcas don't seem much interested in pursuing sockeye--the Fraser's main product.
"The result from the present study will allow fish managers to potentially fine tune their activities to meet both salmon and whale recovery goals," said the authors. "For example, our results suggest that the whales may be particularly dependent upon Fraser River chinook salmon stocks during the summer months. In considering the risk of fisheries to the whales via prey reduction, it may therefore make sense to pay particular attention to fisheries that impact these stocks."
They also said their results may help assess the potential importance of hatchery chinook in meeting the whale's prey requirements.
But they pointed out that the orcas spend most of their time in outer coastal waters between fall and spring. ranging from central California to northern BC. "It will therefore be important to conduct similar studies in outer coastal areas in order to gain a more complete understanding of the whales' diet.
They said the next steps involve assessing the impact on Fraser chinook stocks from the three southern resident orca pods, "as well as providing more realistic estimates of the intake of persistent organic pollutants than those of a recent analysis (Cullen et al, 2009)."
The Cullen paper suggested the southern resident whale population may be ingesting four times as much PCBs [polychlorinated biphenyls] by body weight as the northern BC orca population (see NW Fishletter 257).
Since the disappearance of seven southern resident orcas in recent years, including two reproductive females, scientists have been taking a closer look at the whales' diet, hoping to find clues to their decline. Some whale advocates had been quick to blame reduced chinook runs for the problem, especially in Puget Sound and the Columbia River. They also pointed to high PCB levels in Puget Sound chinook as another harmful factor.
However, the Cullen paper showed that chinook from the lower Fraser River carried higher PCB levels than Duwamish River chinook from mid-Puget Sound, but lower levels than salmon from the Deschutes River at the southern end of the Sound.
NOAA researcher Hanson said others have also found lower PCB levels in salmon during the winter off California than a study cited in the Cullen paper. Columbia River and Sacramento River chinook contain about half the PCB levels of the Puget Sound chinook.
Latest addition to the orca pod with mother near Victoria, BC in February.
Photo by David Ellifrit, Center For Whale Research (taken under NOAA permit)
But local orca numbers have been increasing lately. Another birth last month has brought the southern population up to 89 members, the highest in five years. It's the seventh birth this year, a record number for the last 20 years or so. Usually, only about half of the calves survive their first year.
By 1973, the southern resident population had declined to 71. Then it climbed to 99 by1996, then dropped to 79 six years later.
It was reported that the southern residents have been spending a lot of time off the west coast of Vancouver island this winter, where Columbia river fall chinook are known to graze. This year's fall chinook run is expected to be very robust, and their improved numbers may be helping to boost whale numbers as well.
Hanson told NW Fishletter, that, at the moment, he has no idea where the resident orcas are. He said none had been sighted off California this past winter, but one had been seen off the Oregon coast at the end of February. (For more information on orca sightings, see orcanetwork.org.) -B. R.
[7] Pacific Smelt Listed For ESA Protection
NOAA Fisheries announced Mar. 16 that it was listing Pacific smelt as threatened under the ESA. The oil-rich smelt, also known as eulachon, or candlefish, spawn in rivers in late winter or early spring and can spend five years at sea before they return.
The small fish have long been prized by tribal cultures for their oil. Many Northwest tribes still use "ooligan" oil as part of their native cuisine, especially in BC and Alaska. Lewis and Clark ate plenty of them during the winter of 1805 when they were hunkered down at Astoria. In fact, the word "Oregon" may actually be a variant of the Cree Indian pronunciation of the word "ooligan," and the source for the modern word "eulachon," according to the original 2007 petition from the Cowlitz Tribe of southwestern Washington.
Federal biologists say the Pacific smelt is made up of two populations--the listed one runs from northern California all the way up the BC coast to the Nass River.
NOAA Fisheries said the population is declining throughout its range, despite severe cuts in commercial and recreational harvests. The agency said projected impacts from climate change--mainly reduced river flows, could have a negative effect on spawning success. The smelt are also at risk from being harvested in shrimp fisheries off the West Coast and BC.
Eulachon harvests bounced back in 2001 and were relatively high through 2004, but have dropped significantly since then. Warm ocean conditions may have played a big role in the decline, said the petition, but it also noted that "variability and/or trends in ocean conditions are for the most part unpredictable and are not able to be manipulated by humans. This leads to confusion about the primary causes and consequences of population declines and what we can do (or cease doing) to restore them."
NMFS turned down a 1999 petition for a formal review of the smelt populations filed by retired WDFW biologist Sam Wright. They said not enough information was available to determine if the Columbia River population was a DPS [Distinct Population Segment]. They also said harvest data didn't provide a reliable measure of abundance, but the stock had shown an ability to rebound, and ocean conditions probably played the most important role in controlling abundance.
The feds will now determine if protective measures are needed and estimate the smelt's critical habitat. -B. R.
[8] Analysis: Dam Breaching Would Leave A Big Carbon Footprint
While federal policymakers ponder just how much "more" BiOp Judge James Redden wants in the region's new salmon plan before he gives it a passing grade, Northwest environmental groups such as the Northwest Energy Coalition are pushing the idea that the region could take out the lower Snake dams without any real consequences, economic or otherwise--a position they say is backed up by the Northwest Power and Conservation Council's latest power plan.
Disregarding the feds' conclusion that the ESA-listed fish runs can probably recover with the dams in place, NWEC echoed results from the council plan that estimated gains from energy conservation will make consumers' electric bills actually go down over the next 20 years, even though actual rates will go up.
The council plan says bills are expected to go down 0.7 percent a year over the next 20 years with the dams in place. If the dams are removed, bills would only go down 0.1 percent a year, since coal- and gas-fired generation would be needed to make up for the hydro generation, along with more market purchases of wholesale power.
"The study concludes--as Bright Future [NWEC's own energy report] does--that the power production and other benefits of the four dams can be very affordably replaced. And that doesn't reflect the economic boom of a revived commercial and recreational fishery," trumpeted NWEC's Feb. 10 press release, which did give the NPCC plan a lot of credit for pushing conservation efforts and energy efficiency for soaking up 85 percent of the region's energy needs for the next 20 years.
Such a rosy scenario could help a certain federal judge prod the feds to come up with a little "more" than they already have to satisfy his concerns.
In his latest move, the judge got the feds to commit to breaching studies if the runs begin to tank. But he has hinted that it would be better for everybody if the feds adopted still more ideas from plaintiffs.
Though he hasn't said anything specifically about it, one of those ideas might be to toughen up the biological triggers (low fish counts) the feds have said will get breaching studies rolling--or why not just start breaching studies right now, since it looks like we can certainly afford to take those pesky dams out?
Redden has given the feds a three-month remand to tuck the Obama add-ons into the salmon plan, and that includes the breaching-study contingencies.
Call me paranoid, but it's happened before. The judge does seem swayed by dam-removal sentiment, despite the prospect of a huge spring chinook return to the Columbia this year.
After a pro-breaching article circulated throughout the region last year that touted what amounted to an outdated and laughable extinction analysis called the Doomsday Clock, the judge made public his concerns over the ESA-listed runs going extinct, contrary to all recent trends on spawning beds.
Redden could easily support Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski's position that breaching studies should begin right now, and fault the feds if they don't add the action to their final document.
But the council's new power plan does not support NWEC's rosy assumptions about dam breaching at all.
The council analyzed 10 future power-demand scenarios, including removing the four dams on the lower Snake, and compared them to the future that seems most likely to occur--one where carbon costs begin to be levied and increase over the 20 years of the plan's timeline.
The scenarios estimated that removing the dams would increase regional carbon emissions by three million tons per year, since more gas-fired plants would have to be built to take their place. Current carbon emissions are about 57 million tons per year.
Breaching would also boost BPA's revenue requirements by $530 million a year, beginning in 2020, when the dams were estimated to be removed, and by even more in future years.
Removing the dams would also increase regional power system costs by $4 billion to $7 billion and lead to higher consumer bills and utility rates.
Without those dams, more natural gas-fired plants would have to be built to provide for reliable power, and more power would have to be imported from other gas and coal sources outside the Northwest, with less to be exported.
The three-million-ton increase in CO2 emissions would be a 7.6-percent boost to the carbon-risk scenario, according to the council's plan. That's five times more than the amount of carbon saved by the states' renewables portfolio standards used in the modeling effort.
So the upshot of dam removal would be to increase BPA's priority firm power rate by nearly 30 percent--and that doesn't include costs of replacing power-system reserves, reactive support for transmission provided by the dams, or the cost of removing them.
In other words, as more wind power goes on line, we will need those lower Snake dams more than ever.
How do you square that with these remarks from a Sept. 15, 2009, press release from Earthjustice, the group leading the charge for removing those dams:
"Opponents of following the science have called the idea of removing dams dangerous in light of climate change concerns. Salmon advocates, however, point to expert analysis from the NW Energy Coalition and a new analysis from the Northwest Conservation and Planning Council (sic) to show that protecting salmon and providing for a clean energy future are both imminently doable and affordable.
"'We truly can have both clean, affordable energy and healthy salmon runs in the Pacific Northwest,' said NW Energy Coalition executive director Sara Patton. 'It's not an either/or. We have an abundance of untapped clean energy opportunities, so saying dam removal would lead to large increases in climate emissions is nonsense. The Northwest can show the rest of the country how to right our past mistakes while creating jobs and providing for a better future.'"
However, even Bright Future's fine print calls for using gas-fired plants for 30 years or so to make up for interim power losses from dam removal--until the magical future of wind power and conservation takes hold.
But that bright future may be dimming somewhat. NWEC's senior policy analyst Steve Weiss told NW Fishletter that more gas-fired plants will be needed in the future, whether the dams stay or not.
It's not a position NWEC admits in public pronouncements. Just a few days ago, Patton said in The Oregonian's online version that "so great are conservation's cost-savings that two actions analyzed but not part of the actual plan--shutting off enough coal power to meet state carbon-reduction laws and replacing the power from four controversial dams on the lower Snake River--still wouldn't raise the average electricity bill."
But she forgot to mention anything about those three million more tons of CO2 added to the environment every year.
So by going green, we may be going more in the black, both financially and atmospherically, than some of us want to admit.
Spewing three million more tons of CO2 into the air every year on the off chance it might add a few thousand more salmon to Idaho streams seems like a fishy tradeoff, since barging fish would no longer be an option with the dams gone.
Plus, it would swamp any savings from the states' prospective renewables portfolios. -B. R.
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