[1] Redden Proposal Would Give Feds Three Months To Fix BiOp

U.S. District Judge James Redden has proposed an order that would give federal agencies a "limited, voluntary remand" to add more elements to the 2008 salmon plan that Obama administration officials concluded were needed to satisfy the judge's earlier concerns.

Redden decided Feb. 10 the feds must formally incorporate these additions into a final agency decision before he can rule on the 2008 BiOp as a whole, and gave them until Feb. 19 to decide whether to take him up on the offer.

The decision is a blow to BiOp plaintiffs, who had argued that the feds were required to re-initiate consultation over the BiOp before they could supplement the record, and that would require the judge to rule on the original BiOp first, then a remand could follow.

Though Redden called the Obama administration's add-ons--which were lumped together in a document called the "Adaptive Management Implementation Plan"--"a positive development," he said the feds need to add "more" than just the AMIP to the BiOp before he might approve it.

When the AMIP was unveiled in September, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said it included accelerated and enhanced actions to protect species; enhanced research and monitoring to improve the certainty of information needed for decision-making; and two types of specific biological triggers for contingencies linked to declining abundance of listed fish, that would prevent further declines if some fish populations start dropping fast.

Long-term contingencies included the possibilities of breaching the four lower Snake River dams and drawing down John Day Pool to minimum operating pool.

If the feds agree to the remand, he urged them to strengthen the salmon plan. "They need not 'start over from scratch,' or develop a new jeopardy framework," the judge wrote in a letter that accompanied the proposed order. "Federal Defendants should do more. Indeed, they have acknowledged that they can do more."

The judge wasn't very specific, but he said the feds should take another look at his previous concerns "regarding the lack of specificity and certainty (i.e., funding) in both the 2008 BiOp/RPA and the AMIP."

And he was blunt about the feds incorporating some actions that plaintiff environmental and fishing groups, the state of Oregon and the Nez Perce Tribe had been arguing for.

"I also encourage them to consider some of the parties' suggestions for improving the AMIP," Redden said, in what seems to be his last attempt at getting some sort of settlement between the parties.

Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski was blunt about that in an op-ed in The Oregonian, where he said he wanted more flow and spill at dams, a reservoir drawdown at John Day Pool, and getting lower Snake dam-breaching studies under way now so their removal can begin if the fish "are not on a clear path to recovery within 10 years."

So the feds can only guess how much more will be enough to satisfy the judge, if they go the remand route.

Back in October, plaintiffs had argued that the AMIP, like the BiOp, didn't include the court-ordered spill regime in place the last few years, and that it relied on many, yet unidentified future projects for tributary and estuary improvement.

They said it was wrong for the feds to identify precise survival benefits to listed populations when the feds themselves acknowledged there was little published information that demonstrated effects of site-specific actions on egg-to-smolt survival at the population scale.

Plaintiffs also said the AMIP didn't really address impacts from climate change, though NOAA Administrator Lubchenco specifically mentioned that issue when the plan was released last September.

"It's pretty obvious that climate change is already under way and is expected to have very significant impacts on the Pacific Northwest, and therefore we felt it important to include that into our planning and our thinking," Lubchenco said at the time.

Redden said the defendants must not only supplement the record with all the documents that support the AMIP, but "must also include new and pertinent scientific information relating to the proposed action (e.g., recent climate change data). If that scientific data requires additional analysis or mitigation to avoid jeopardy, Federal Defendants must adequately address those issues."

However, a few sentences later, he said he wouldn't be dictating the scope or substance of the defendants' remand, but reminded them they must comply with the ESA in preparing any amended BiOp.

So it seems likely the feds will have to second-guess the Judge, if they go the remand route, which seems their most probable direction, according to several stakeholders, who also pointed out that the Judge seemed OK with the feds' jeopardy analysis, which was the plaintiffs' main complaint since the litigation over the 2008 BiOp began.

Redden reminded the feds they were free to disregard his suggestions, and simply insert the AMIP into the BiOp, but plaintiffs will certainly challenge the validity of the amended opinion.

But he ended his letter with one more hint. "If Federal Defendants conduct a superficial ten-day remand (as they have proposed), I will view that final agency decision with heightened skepticism."

Others said without knowing just how much "more" will satisfy the judge, NOAA Fisheries may be hard-pressed to fully amend the opinion in only three months.

BPA customers were not happy with Redden's latest move, and were quick to point out that some of the government's best scientists have already said the 2008 hydro BiOp passes muster as the best available science, especially with the added implementation plan.

"We couldn't be more disappointed in the Judge's latest letter," said Terry Flores, executive director of Northwest RiverPartners, a large coalition of river users, and a defendant-intervenor in the BiOp case.

"It fails to recognize the incredible consensus and unprecedented financial commitment being made by people in the Northwest in fish restoration. It would appear nothing can satisfy him if three different plans by three different Administrations have failed to do so, including the opinions of world class scientists and NOAA's own top scientist, Dr. Jane Lubchenco."

Plaintiffs fired back in a press release that touted a last-minute review of the Obama add-ons by the American Fisheries Society's western division. "With this review, the independent scientists of the American Fisheries Society have shed some much-needed light on a topic that has already generated quite a bit of heat," said Jim Martin, former chief of fisheries for the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, in a press release from the Save Our Wild Salmon Coalition. "These experts looked at the AMIP and asked two all-important questions: does it do enough to help struggling salmon, and does it utilize the best science? Unfortunately, the answer to both questions appears to be no." Martin is now conservation director of the Berkeley Institute, an entity associated with the sportfishing industry.

The AFS' western division has supported breaching lower Snake dams for years, and its latest anonymous critique even lambasted the feds for ditching the old PATH process of the late 1990s that tried to bring regional scientists together in an effort to test different salmon recovery assumptions. -Bill Rudolph

[2] Power Council Hears Update On Growing Mussel Threat

The Northwest Power and Conservation Council heard some disturbing news from agencies last month about how hard it would be to repel an invasion of quagga or zebra mussels from the Midwest, where they have caused billions of dollars in damage by plugging pipes at water plants and cooling systems.

Despite improved monitoring of reservoirs and boats being hauled west on trucks, it's probably only a matter of time before the tiny invaders show up around the Columbia Basin.

And nobody has yet figured out just how to combat the prolific mussels or how much it will cost to keep them at bay.

The invaders have already made it west of the Rockies, and entered the Colorado River, where they were found in Lake Mead in 2007 and have become a major headache for government agencies.

They have grown so prolifically that they have reduced water flows through trash racks at Hoover Dam by 50 percent, while threatening to clog pipes that carry water to keep turbine bearings cool and well lubricated.

And some zebra mussels actually crossed the Columbia last November--on the bottom of a 50-foot pleasure boat being trucked from Lake Michigan to Puget Sound.

The mussels were spotted at a truck scale on I-90, near Cle Elum, Wash., but the driver left before WDFW personnel could arrive to decontaminate the boat. The boat hauler wasn't actually stopped until he had reached Blaine, Wash., where the boat was to be launched.

The truck driver was later charged with unlawful transportation of a deleterious exotic species and for making false statements. When he failed to appear in court, an arrest warrant was issued.

Agencies are still trying to sort out who is responsible for what. Scott Lund, the Bureau of Reclamation's integrated pest management coordinator, said his agency doesn't really manage the reservoirs that hold the water that BuRec is charged with distributing throughout the West.

At a panel discussion during the Feb. 9 Council meeting, he said that is done by the Bureau's managing partners--usually the states, or with tribes as well. That's how it's done at Lake Roosevelt, behind Grand Coulee Dam.

Nor does Reclamation have authority to shut down a boat ramp or treat a reservoir for an infestation of mussels.

"It's not within our statutory authority," said Lund.

"That's not a very good answer," mumbled one of the Council members.

New Council Chair Bruce Measure noted the complexity of mobilizing, state, tribal and federal forces "to move this thing forward," but he said the region needs a unified vision to address this issue, because it's a problem that doesn't respect geo-political boundaries.

However, the Columbia Basin does have a "rapid response plan" to deal with a potential invasion. The current October 2008 version has been signed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, and the states of Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington.

But that doesn't mean the plan is ready to go if the critters appear next week. One idea that was floated during last week's discussion was to have ESA Clean Water Act permits in hand ahead of time, so mitigation efforts could begin quickly.

But USFWS spokesman, Paul Heimowitz, from his agency's Pacific regional office, said "we certainly don't have something we can pull out of the toolbox and use in an eradication effort without complications."

However, he said there is a process to bring the agencies together.

"It's more important that we have that structure of how decisions get made and the list of options, so that that part can happen quickly," he said. "Every situation is going to be different, but we do have appendices in the plan that point to certain tools, that have some likelihood of ... we know how to kill things, I guess is the bottom line."

But Heimowitz said the question really goes back to the kinds of side effects that the region is willing to live with.

BPA's Jim Clune, acting manager of federal hydro projects, said his agency has been dealing with the invasive mussel issue for 10 years, working with the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission to build a nuisance species prevention program.

Over the past few years, BPA has also supported exercises to test the rapid response plan, worked with the 100th Meridian Initiative, which coordinates nuisance species prevention in the region, and has supported efforts to develop protocols for a watercraft interception program.

Monitoring programs have been increased at Corps of Engineers' projects in the basin, and boosted education for boaters about the mussels.

The power-marketing agency has also partnered with Portland State University to develop anti-fouling coatings (Evidently, there are some coatings that show promise in combating the infestations).

Another new project has had researchers truck Columbia River water down to Lake Mead to grow mussels in it, so they can predict growth rate and plan future maintenance costs at hydro facilities in the basin.

The Bureau of Reclamation has already begun a major research effort at Hoover and other dams in the Southwest, said BuRec's Lund.

"Those facilities have been hit particularly hard, especially because of the year-round reproductive capabilities in those waters," said Lund.

He described research with coatings, pesticides, and bacteria, all showing some promise, along with some non-invasive methodologies like the use of underwater high-velocity jetting for cleaning surfaces, UV light, and micro filtration, which are a lot simpler to implement because no CWA permit is needed.

The Corps' Bob Willis said a vulnerability assessment for Bonneville Dam was completed in 2008. His agency is currently working on assessments for The Dalles and John Day dams, and is looking at expanding to other projects as well.

Scott Rumsey, regional RM&E coordinator for NMFS, said his agency has had only a tangential impact on the mussel issue from its role in fish management, but is working towards playing a role in the rapid response plan.

As for the boat that made it clean across the state of Washington with a load of live zebra mussels, the experts told the Council that even the proper 2-hour cleaning of a boat couldn't insure that all the mussels would be removed, since the little invaders prefer nooks and crannies like those found in the drives of inboard/outboards. They said a 30-day dry-out period would be a much better solution. -B. R.

[3] UW Study Says Dams Could Cope With Climate Change

A new computerized crystal ball developed by climate scientists from the University of Washington and the Corps of Engineers says future dam operations could cope with big changes in the Columbia Basin they expect by 2060--much less snowpack and earlier melt in some places---to maintain an adequate power supply and reasonable flood protection.

The modeling effort was explained in the latest issue of the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. It took a broad-brush approach, using a monthly-time series, and found that dam operators could begin refilling some reservoirs up to a month earlier than current operations call for, and hold water longer to cope with the warmer climate they expect to see 50 years from now.

Lead author Alan Hamlet, a UW research assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering who works with the UW's Climate Impacts Group, is an expert in Northwest hydrology. He helped write the 2009 report about future climate impacts to the state of Washington, which estimated the state's snowpack will decline by 40 percent by the 2040s from the 1916-2006 average. However, the report said, overall precipitation is not likely to change much.

"There are anticipated dramatic changes in the snowpack which ultimately will affect when the water comes into the Columbia's reservoirs," Hamlet said, in a Jan. 21 statement that accompanied the article's release. "Changes in flood control operations constitute only one climate-change adaptation strategy, but our study shows that incorporating climate change in flood management plans can improve the performance of existing water systems in future climates."

The analysis is based on future temperatures that were developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which estimated a 2 degrees Celsius increase by the 2050s.

The paper noted that each reservoir had its unique qualities. With more warming expected in Idaho than at other reservoirs, operational changes at Dworshak Reservoir would be more drastic than those at Montana's Libby project. The authors estimated Dworshak refill would have to begin a month earlier than it does now, while refill timing at Libby would be close to current operations.

With the expectation of less snow and peak spring flows, overall flood risk would decline in some places, said Se-Yeun Lee, a UW post-doc who worked on the analysis for her doctorate. "With reduced flood risk we can release less water and refill earlier," she said. "As a result, we can supply more hydropower in summer and more storage for other needs like fish flows."

The paper concluded that the existing infrastructure can work successfully in the future if changes are made in the way flood rule curves are generated: "The simulation results using the optimized flood rule curves demonstrate that additional trade offs between reservoir refill and flood control may be possible if flood risks like those experienced in the 20th century are acceptable, because the optimized flood rule curves show reduced flood risk."

The authors said they were continuing to refine their analysis to test for flood impacts at daily time scales.

However, their analysis may be overestimating future snowpack loss and timing of peak spring flows, according to a recent paper by other UW atmospheric researchers (Stoelinga et al), which has pegged snowpack losses in the range of only 2 percent per decade. They say it's likely snowpack declines are mitigated by a cool North Pacific Ocean, which may dampen overall effects of global warming in the Northwest.

If this analysis proves correct, snowpack losses would only be about one-third to one-fourth of the levels that were modeled in the new Hamlet et al. paper, and operations at dams would not have to change nearly as much as the new paper suggests.

But Hamlet isn't too impressed with the Stoelinga paper's results. "Right now this study is something of an outlier," he told NW Fishletter by email. "It doesn't mean they are wrong, but it requires some follow up to better understand the differences between their methods and those used in previous studies." He said "follow on studies are needed to see if the results are robust or just artifacts of the particular downscaling and analytical methods they chose."

Another new paper involving a UW researcher says the earth has warmed much less than climate modelers expected.

In a Jan. 19 study published online in the American Meteorology Association's Journal of Climate, Stephen Schwartz of the Brookhaven National Lab, Robert Charlson of the UW and their co-authors say global climate models estimate the earth's mean temperature should be up nearly 4 degrees Fahrenheit from fossil fuel use since the industrial era began. But only a 1.4-degree increase has been observed.

"The data show that either we have 40 years of emissions left before the atmosphere can't absorb any more carbon dioxide, or we're already past the point of no return. In other words, the uncertainty rate is unacceptably high," said Charlson, a professor of atmospheric sciences.

The new paper says the discrepancy between the observed and modeled temperature increase comes from two factors. First, the climate may be less sensitive to greenhouse gases than currently assumed, and/or reflection of sunlight by haze particles in the atmosphere could be offsetting some of the expected warming.

They said another factor might be the slow response of temperature to the warming influence of the gases, but they found this so-called "thermal lag" is likely only a minor influence.

Their paper also said that their most optimistic analysis suggests that it would take another 35 years of present-day levels of fossil fuel emissions to reach the IPCC's 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit threshold the panel regards as the dangerous level of human interference on climate.

But we may already be over the edge.

"These results do not in any way reduce or remove the need for solid action now to move toward a zero-carbon dioxide emission economy," said Charlson. "The results tell us that doing our utmost now might work very well if the most optimistic values of sensitivity are real, but that it is possible that nothing will work no matter how hard we try."

He said if uncertainties like gauging the effects of haze particles aren't reduced, "we will be in the same boat 10 or 20 years from now as we are today." -B. R.

[4] Water Supply Forecast Dropped Fast

Despite more precipitation in much of the Columbia Basin during January after a semi-dry, cold December, the latest water supply forecast dropped precipitously over the past few weeks.

The February final forecast (released Feb. 5) from NOAA's Northwest River Forecast Center pegged the supply at only 74 percent of average for the January-July period at the Columbia River near The Dalles (about 77 million acre-feet). That was down from an 81-percent-of-average forecast just two weeks before, an 11-percent decline.

Better snowpack in northern drainages still can't make up for the lack of snow further south. The January-July forecast for the Columbia above Grand Coulee is now 81 percent of average, down from 89 percent.

The drier conditions have federal agencies scrambling. BPA announced Jan. 29 that it expects to lose $6 million for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30. Last October, it was expecting to be $232 million in the red.

"Without water, the federal hydro system is like a car with a huge engine but no gas," said Michael Milstein, BPA spokesman, in a press release. "There is still time for the snowpack to build. Twice in the last 10 years, we have had 'miracle March' snows that brought the system back from the brink."

But the statement also noted that the current forecast was likely to hold because of the El Niño weather pattern now in place, and would make this year's precip levels the lowest runoff since 2001 and 13th lowest since 1928. A dry 2010 would also put runoff below average in 10 of the last 11 years.

In 2001, Columbia Basin snowpack averaged only 53 percent and the water supply ended up about 55 percent of the long-term average, around 68 MAF.

But the region's worst water year came in 1977, on the heels of a powerful El Niño, when the basin only coughed up 53 MAF.

BPA said the expected lack of water was the sole reason for the negative revenue forecast, noting that expenses were below start-of-year budgets and the price of the electricity it sells on the surplus market was close to expectations. Without water, the federal hydro system is like a car with a huge engine but no gas.

Other federal agencies have begun conversations about what to do about salmon migration from Idaho this year, said Ritchie Graves, supervisory fish biologist with NOAA Fisheries' hydropower division in Portland.

With only a few sites in northern Idaho recording close-to-average snow levels, the water supply looks like it will be a lot worse in the rest of the state. Inflows into Dworshak Reservoir in the Clearwater watershed are only expected to be 65 percent of average.

That is close to the 64-percent-of-average water supply expected at Lower Granite Reservoir on the Snake, the first project where juvenile fish are barged. Further up the Snake, Brownlee inflows (April-July) at the Hells Canyon Project are estimated to be only 48 percent of average, down from a 52-percent estimate in December.

NOAA's Graves said tribes and other sovereigns will also be brought into the conversation as part of the new regional process called RIOG [Regional Implementation Oversight Group] developed under the 2008 hydro BiOp.

The BiOp calls for increased fish barging under low flow conditions in the Snake River, but that would run counter to the court-ordered spill regime in place until Federal District Judge James Redden makes a decision whether to uphold the salmon plan.

NOAA Fisheries has told the judge it will decide spill and transportation strategies on a yearly basis, rather than the 10-year plan outlined in the BiOp, which under average flows and more, calls for curtailing all spill at collector projects and maximizing barging for two weeks in May.

Most state and tribal managers agree in principle that when flows are really low, fish transportation should be increased, but that doesn't mean they will actually vote to shift strategies. In 2007, when fish managers had a 93-percent-of-average water supply, but faced low flows from a recalcitrant snowpack, they turned down a recommendation by NOAA Fisheries to maximize fish transportation in the Snake River for the rest of the spring.

With reduced flows expected after the 2007 freshet's spike, the agency said fish would be better off in barges than facing poor inriver migration conditions.

The NOAA Fisheries document that accompanied the recommendation said the 2002 water year was comparable to the 2007 flows, and transport smolt-to-adult survival rates (SARs) for wild chinook were four times higher than inriver fish for the late May period in that year. In 2002, the February water supply forecast was 85 percent of average.

In 2002, steelhead SARs were better for barged fish; 1.5 to 3 percent versus less than 0.4 percent for inriver migrants.

In 2007, spring average flows at Lower Granite were expected to be around 72 kcfs, about 10 kcfs below average. According to Graves, if the current forecast plays out, then spring flows at Lower Granite will likely be below 65 kcfs this year, which is the 2008 BiOp's threshold for beginning barging on April 3 and continuing it until the end of May.

It will be up to RIOG members to decide this year's barging strategy, but they probably won't make their decision until the final water supply forecast is released April 7. A recent NMFS review of transportation found that, even with the court-ordered spill regime in place, 2007 wild juvenile Snake River steelhead that were barged survived to adulthood at least two to four times better than inriver migrants, if they were transported after May 1.

Meanwhile, other Northwest watersheds aren't facing such dry conditions. The Skagit in the North Cascades is projected to be 80 percent of average, while the Cowlitz is at 83 percent. Libby inflows in western Montana are pegged at 75 percent of average in the latest forecast and Oregon's Willamette Basin is estimated at 85 percent of its average water supply from April through September. -B. R.

[5] 2009 Sacramento Fall Chinook Run Lowest On Record

The Pacific Fishery Management Council said last week in their post-season salmon review that 2009's Sacramento River fall chinook run was the most dismal return they had ever seen. The 39,530 fall chinook run was only about one-third of managers' preseason prediction, which was based on jacks that returned in 2008.

Fishermen and environmental groups were quick to blame increasing water withdrawals from the Sacramento system for the losses, but scientists say that near-ocean conditions in 2007 when the fish went to sea, were nearly as bad as 2005 and 2006.

Before this year's low, the 2008 return of 66,000 was the worst on record. But the 2008 return was actually 12 percent higher than the preseason estimate for that year. nothing like the huge miscalculation by fish managers for the 2009 return.

The 2009 number was also only about one-third of the 121,000-fish lower bound of the system's conservation goal, and has triggered an "Overfishing Concern" because it was the third year in a row that the Sac's conservation goal (122,000-180,000) had not been met. But there hasn't been much overfishing to be concerned about. The commercial troll fleet off California and southern Oregon has been mainly shut down for the past two fishing seasons.

All the news wasn't bad, though, since egg-take goals were met at most hatcheries. And some facilities showed a significant rebound in returns from 2008. The state's Mokelumne River Hatchery saw 731 fall chinook return this year, while only 123 made it last year. Jack counts were encouraging too, with more than 800 tallied. That's nearly eight times better than 2008.

The USDFWS's Coleman Hatchery, located on a tributary of the Sacramento River, near Redding California, didn't meet its numerical goal, but managed to reach its egg-take goal. Few fall chinook adults returned from the second of two large smolt releases from Coleman, which probably affected returns. Five thousand adults entered the hatchery by late fall 2009. Twice as many entered the hatchery in 2008.

Up in the Klamath watershed, the Iron Gate Hatchery counted more than 12,000 returning adults; 9,845 were counted in 2008. Jacks counts added up to just more than 1,000, down from last year's 1,400.

But only about 22,000 adults in the Sacramento-San Joaquin watershed spawned in natural areas in 2009, said the PFMC report. More than twice that spawned in 2008.

Poor ocean conditions off California in 2005 and 2006 were already blamed as the main factor in poor 2007 and 2008 returns to the Sacramento, according to a 2009 review by NOAA Fisheries. While, salmon runs just a few hundred miles north, like in the Klamath Basin, were not as severely affected.

But conditions had generally improved off the West Coast by 2007. However, a closer look at conditions off California tell something of a different story. Decreased northerly winds reduced upwelling and led to less productivity than expected, which meant less tiny shrimp for young salmon to feed on, and probably reduced survival in the spring and early summer

In 2007, when the young fall chinook went to sea, freshwater flows in the winter and spring were reduced from a winter of low precipitation and snowmelt.

A smolt survey at the end of the Sacramento Delta found juvenile salmon numbers the fifth lowest since 1978, and below numbers in 2005 and 2006.

As late as 2004, California sport and commercial fishers were hauling in more than half a million fall chinook south of Point Arena, with another 300,000 fish left over to escape to Central Valley rivers.

But conditions changed quickly. Coastal upwelling was poor the following two years, which played havoc with offshore food webs. And fish weren't the only victims--thousands of seabirds starved as well.

Unfortunately, fish managers didn't see it coming, and allowed too many chinook to be caught in 2007, even though that harvest was only about one-third of what managers had expected.

The fishery probably should have been closed in 2007, as it was in 2008, when Congress provided $170 million to commercial trollers and related businesses to make up for the extended vacation.

The NOAA report looked at more than 40 different possibilities for the sudden decline, including increasing water withdrawals from the Sacramento system for agriculture. However, it pointed out that though water diversions in January 2005 set records, they were at near-average levels in the spring when most of the juvenile fall chinook migrated to sea. In summer and fall, the Delta diversions rose again to near-record levels.

In 2006, the report said total water exports at state and federal pumping facilities in the south delta were near average for winter and spring, but were above average in June, and near records again that summer and fall.

The report also noted that gates were closed at the Delta Cross Channel from February through May, an action that has been in place since 1995. Gates were closed in 2007 as well, when the fall chinook migrated oceanward.

A National Academy of Sciences panel has been charged to examine some of the thorny issues over water usage, flows, and effects on salmon and local smelt, and is expected to release a report in March. In November, the committee will issue a second report on how most effectively to incorporate science and adaptive management concepts into holistic programs for management and restoration of the delta habitat and the smelt.

As for salmon, the feds' 2009 report said degradation of freshwater habitat and heavy reliance on hatchery fish--which has been up to 90 percent--likely played roles in the collapse of the fall chinook run as well.

Central Valley water users, faced with reduced withdrawals, went to court last month and got more winter flows from recent storms than a BiOp that deals with ESA-listed winter-run chinook normally allows. But a few days later, the same judge who granted the temporary injunction, upheld the NMFS BiOp that regulates water usage in the Sacramento for smelt and reduced pumping after ESA-listed Delta smelt were found dead in the pumps. The upshot was less water being pumped than if the water users had refrained from going after the TRO.

It has become a political hot potato, with California Sen. Diane Feinstein weighing in with heavy ag users and municipalities, which has pitted her against fishing and environmental groups in northern California. She is writing an amendment that may be attached to a jobs bill that would give ag users in the Central Valley more water than the salmon BiOp has called for.

Many farmers got only 10 percent of the normal allocation last year, due mainly to a drought that may end this winter. It was reported that other members of the California delegation were irked by Feinstein's announcement, because she had earlier pledged to wait until the NAS panel report was released before working on any changes to water policy.

Meanwhile, NMFS is working to develop an annual survey to track biological and ocean indicators in northern California waters, much like the work the agency does every year between Newport, Oregon and Cape Flattery, said NMFS oceanographer Bill Petersen. He said the data collected could give fish managers a better idea of what to expect in future returns. -B. R.

[6] Lower Expectations For Columbia River Coho

Nearly 400,000 coho are expected to return to the Columbia River this year, according to harvest managers. That's down from last year's run of slightly more than one million fish. The run is mostly hatchery fish and is expected to be made up of about 245,000 early run fish, and 144,000 late run coho.

The Oregon Coast Natural component is expected to add up to about 148,000 coho this year, down from last year's 257,000.

The managers reported that their preseason prediction last year for Columbia coho was within 99 percent of the actual return. In 2008, the run came in about three times higher (471,000) than their preseason estimate.

Since 1970, adult coho returns to the Columbia River have ranged from a low of 74,900 in 1995 to a high of 1,527,900 in 1986.

Ocean conditions have deteriorated over the past year. An annual September survey of juvenile coho off the mouth of the Columbia conducted by NOAA Fisheries researchers found last year's young coho numbers the lowest since 1998 when they began the effort. -B. R.

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