[5] 2009 Sacramento Fall Chinook Run Lowest On Record
The Pacific Fishery Management Council said last week in their post-season salmon review that 2009's Sacramento River fall chinook run was the most dismal return they had ever seen. The 39,530 fall chinook run was only about one-third of managers' preseason prediction, which was based on jacks that returned in 2008.
Fishermen and environmental groups were quick to blame increasing water withdrawals from the Sacramento system for the losses, but scientists say that near-ocean conditions in 2007 when the fish went to sea, were nearly as bad as 2005 and 2006.
Before this year's low, the 2008 return of 66,000 was the worst on record. But the 2008 return was actually 12 percent higher than the preseason estimate for that year. nothing like the huge miscalculation by fish managers for the 2009 return.
The 2009 number was also only about one-third of the 121,000-fish lower bound of the system's conservation goal, and has triggered an "Overfishing Concern" because it was the third year in a row that the Sac's conservation goal (122,000-180,000) had not been met. But there hasn't been much overfishing to be concerned about. The commercial troll fleet off California and southern Oregon has been mainly shut down for the past two fishing seasons.
All the news wasn't bad, though, since egg-take goals were met at most hatcheries. And some facilities showed a significant rebound in returns from 2008. The state's Mokelumne River Hatchery saw 731 fall chinook return this year, while only 123 made it last year. Jack counts were encouraging too, with more than 800 tallied. That's nearly eight times better than 2008.
The USDFWS's Coleman Hatchery, located on a tributary of the Sacramento River, near Redding California, didn't meet its numerical goal, but managed to reach its egg-take goal. Few fall chinook adults returned from the second of two large smolt releases from Coleman, which probably affected returns. Five thousand adults entered the hatchery by late fall 2009. Twice as many entered the hatchery in 2008.
Up in the Klamath watershed, the Iron Gate Hatchery counted more than 12,000 returning adults; 9,845 were counted in 2008. Jacks counts added up to just more than 1,000, down from last year's 1,400.
But only about 22,000 adults in the Sacramento-San Joaquin watershed spawned in natural areas in 2009, said the PFMC report. More than twice that spawned in 2008.
Poor ocean conditions off California in 2005 and 2006 were already blamed as the main factor in poor 2007 and 2008 returns to the Sacramento, according to a 2009 review by NOAA Fisheries. While, salmon runs just a few hundred miles north, like in the Klamath Basin, were not as severely affected.
But conditions had generally improved off the West Coast by 2007. However, a closer look at conditions off California tell something of a different story. Decreased northerly winds reduced upwelling and led to less productivity than expected, which meant less tiny shrimp for young salmon to feed on, and probably reduced survival in the spring and early summer
In 2007, when the young fall chinook went to sea, freshwater flows in the winter and spring were reduced from a winter of low precipitation and snowmelt.
A smolt survey at the end of the Sacramento Delta found juvenile salmon numbers the fifth lowest since 1978, and below numbers in 2005 and 2006.
As late as 2004, California sport and commercial fishers were hauling in more than half a million fall chinook south of Point Arena, with another 300,000 fish left over to escape to Central Valley rivers.
But conditions changed quickly. Coastal upwelling was poor the following two years, which played havoc with offshore food webs. And fish weren't the only victims--thousands of seabirds starved as well.
Unfortunately, fish managers didn't see it coming, and allowed too many chinook to be caught in 2007, even though that harvest was only about one-third of what managers had expected.
The fishery probably should have been closed in 2007, as it was in 2008, when Congress provided $170 million to commercial trollers and related businesses to make up for the extended vacation.
The NOAA report looked at more than 40 different possibilities for the sudden decline, including increasing water withdrawals from the Sacramento system for agriculture. However, it pointed out that though water diversions in January 2005 set records, they were at near-average levels in the spring when most of the juvenile fall chinook migrated to sea. In summer and fall, the Delta diversions rose again to near-record levels.
In 2006, the report said total water exports at state and federal pumping facilities in the south delta were near average for winter and spring, but were above average in June, and near records again that summer and fall.
The report also noted that gates were closed at the Delta Cross Channel from February through May, an action that has been in place since 1995. Gates were closed in 2007 as well, when the fall chinook migrated oceanward.
A National Academy of Sciences panel has been charged to examine some of the thorny issues over water usage, flows, and effects on salmon and local smelt, and is expected to release a report in March. In November, the committee will issue a second report on how most effectively to incorporate science and adaptive management concepts into holistic programs for management and restoration of the delta habitat and the smelt.
As for salmon, the feds' 2009 report said degradation of freshwater habitat and heavy reliance on hatchery fish--which has been up to 90 percent--likely played roles in the collapse of the fall chinook run as well.
Central Valley water users, faced with reduced withdrawals, went to court last month and got more winter flows from recent storms than a BiOp that deals with ESA-listed winter-run chinook normally allows. But a few days later, the same judge who granted the temporary injunction, upheld the NMFS BiOp that regulates water usage in the Sacramento for smelt and reduced pumping after ESA-listed Delta smelt were found dead in the pumps. The upshot was less water being pumped than if the water users had refrained from going after the TRO.
It has become a political hot potato, with California Sen. Diane Feinstein weighing in with heavy ag users and municipalities, which has pitted her against fishing and environmental groups in northern California. She is writing an amendment that may be attached to a jobs bill that would give ag users in the Central Valley more water than the salmon BiOp has called for.
Many farmers got only 10 percent of the normal allocation last year, due mainly to a drought that may end this winter. It was reported that other members of the California delegation were irked by Feinstein's announcement, because she had earlier pledged to wait until the NAS panel report was released before working on any changes to water policy.
Meanwhile, NMFS is working to develop an annual survey to track biological and ocean indicators in northern California waters, much like the work the agency does every year between Newport, Oregon and Cape Flattery, said NMFS oceanographer Bill Petersen. He said the data collected could give fish managers a better idea of what to expect in future returns. -B. R.
The following links were mentioned in this story:
Review of 2009 Ocean Salmon Fisheries
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