[1] 80,000 Jacks Can't Be Wrong, Or Can They?
The upriver spring chinook run in the Columbia River is officially over, but thousands of fish bound for the Snake River are still passing Bonneville Dam, along with more jacks than seen in living memory. In fact, about half of this year's 170,000-fish spring run has turned out to be jacks.
And those precocious males that swim home a year early have rolled in at a pace that has astonished both scientists and fish managers--more than 80,000 of them this year have been counted at Bonneville Dam--that's more than three times the modern record when more than 24,000 were counted in 2000, an early signal to the more than 400,000-fish run in the spring of 2001.
Does that mean more than a million spring chinook will show up next year?
Nobody is actually saying so, but a few optimists are speculating that actually could happen. Most managers and scientists are guardedly optimistic that next year will likely be something of a bonanza, but when pressed, they find it almost impossible to quantify, especially after this year's prediction was so far off, based on their old, somewhat workable methodology built mostly on last year's high jack count.
It's been a real roller coaster of a data base as well. Back in 1998, the spring jack count up at Lower Granite Dam, where most of the upriver run was headed, was made up of a measly 435 young fish. A year later, it jumped to 4,000, and by 2000, 14,000 jacks were counted there.
One thing seems clear, harvest managers' old jack/2-ocean adult ratio doesn't hold up year after year, and may need some tweaking in the future to take into account the quick, huge changes in ocean conditions that have occurred since the new century began, changes that can shift back just as fast.
On June 3, some researchers from Seattle's NMFS Science Center met with members of the Columbia Basin's Technical Advisory Committee, the group of state, federal and tribal harvest managers created by the US v. Oregon process that make Columbia River fish predictions and set harvest goals that are governed largely by ESA constraints.
One of those attendees, NMFS ocean researcher Ed Casillas, said the huge jack count was even more than his group had predicted from near-ocean trawl surveys in June 2008. They counted more fish than they had ever seen in their years of surveying, and estimated that it could mean a spring chinook jack return this year of 40,000 to 50,000.
Well it turns out that NMFS' estimate of this year's jack return was about 30,000 shy of the 80,000-jack count, and the TAC's old jack/adult methodology led the state and tribal folks to come up with a preseason estimate of nearly 300,000 adults, when only about 170,000 actually showed up.
Most managers admit they are dealing with a lot of uncertainty. Casillas told NW Fishletter changes in ocean conditions, and associated predation, along with the "propensity for young males to jack" may be a factor that is skewing the latest numbers.
Back in 1999, when NMFS' ocean surveys began, they found plenty of small chinook, the highest number until last year, and the relationship developed since then between those catches are following year jack counts has been quite tight. The actual 2000 jack return of 24,000 fish fit the NMFS graph almost perfectly. However, so does the 48,000-jack prediction for this year.
(Courtesy NMFS)
"But ocean conditions were far better in 2008," Casillas said, which may hold the key to the jack count puzzle.
Scientists have been measuring chemicals in smolts to see what might be happening that may be producing more jacks in years with much better conditions for growth. By measuring the insulin-like growth factor and testosterone levels of the young fish, they may be on track to answering why so many more jacks are showing up.
Casillas said in most years, a lot of the young males with a propensity to jack may just not grow enough to reach the stage that triggers their maturity and send them home after only one year in the ocean. But in years of extra-cool ocean waters, high productivity from nutrient upwellings may boost their innate tendency to mature early, and could help account for the huge increase in their numbers.
There had been some speculation that changes in hatchery feed a couple of years ago, might have played a role in the high jacking rate, but Casillas said there is some evidence that jack rates of wild fish have increased as well.
Casillas also noted their May trawl survey showed up 20 percent more juvenile salmon than last year. But it's the June numbers that really count, he added. They were heading to sea in a few days. This might portend even more jacks next year.
The NMFS researchers have pointed out why 2008 seemed so special in nearby ocean waters.
Not only was it the most negative winter PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] since 2000 and most negative summer PDO since 1955, but it was the most negative index of El Niño activity since 1999 (This indicates La Niña, or cold equatorial ocean conditions in the eastern Pacific).
Scientists also found the coldest winter sea surface temperatures of the past 12 years, and both early and strong coastal upwelling, with average upwelling strength during April-May (when juvenile salmon first enter the ocean) the 4th highest of 11 years.
Deep-water temperatures in the continental shelf were the coldest of the past 12 years, while the biological spring transition was the earliest of the past 13 years. Researchers found the highest northern copepod biomass levels of the past 13 years, the types that young salmonids thrive on, because of their high nutrient levels.
On a negative note, they did find that sea surface temperatures were warm from 22 July until 27 August, possibly a negative sign for juvenile coho, and only a moderate number of juvenile coho were caught in their September survey (6th highest of 11 years). More than a million coho are expected to return to the Columbia this year. -Bill Rudolph
[2] Canada Ocean Report: 2008 Coldest Water In 50 Years
Like most of the waters off the West Coast, the Pacific Ocean off British Columbia was super salmon-friendly last year, according to a new report by Canada's Department of Fish and Oceans. In fact, these waters were the coldest of the past 50 years.
The report said phytoplankton and zooplankton concentrations were the highest over the latest decade of collecting data across the Gulf of Alaska. "The cause is yet uncertain, but injection of iron by winds or currents is suspected (iron is a limiting factor in this region), along with higher levels of nitrate and silicate in spring.
Oxygen levels remained high near the surface in early 2009, but generally declined in deep waters along the continental slope over the past few decades. "A sudden decline in bottom-water oxygen concentration in 2008 on the continental shelf was likely due to denser water with naturally low oxygen levels moving up onto the shelf in this year due to anomalous winds and currents. This oxygen drop may have been a factor in the movement of some groundfish species to shallower depths in 2008."
The report said despite relatively cool marine conditions the past two years, many BC salmon populations remained at low levels, due partly to warmer ocean water between 2003 and 2005. Sockeye numbers stayed low coastwide, "...with one notable exception being Okanagan sockeye that returned in record numbers in 2008."
Fraser sockeye populations continued to suffer from high pre-spawning mortality from high water temperatures in tributaries.
Southern BC coho populations remained at depressed levels, but northern populations improved.
"For chinook, the situation is somewhat reversed," said the report. "Northern populations continue to decline while the status of southern chinook is highly variable."
With improving ocean conditions, BC sockeye and coho that went to sea in 2008 are expected to return at average to above-average levels.
More than 10 million sockeye are predicted to return to the Fraser River this year. Less than 2 million returned last year. -B. R.
[3] Sockeye Run Starts Strong As Summer Run Cranks Up
Summer runs are beginning to show in the Columbia River, with sockeye rolling in at the same clip as last year's huge run. They are passing Bonneville Dam at more than 5,000 a day. More than 7,000 were counted on June 18, when the total hit 34,000.
Harvest managers have estimated this year's sockeye run at 184,000, down slightly from last year's return of nearly 214,000, and much greater than the 10-year average. Most will be headed for Canada's Lake Osoyoos, with about 18,000 turning off at Lake Wenatchee, and 600 or so are expected to be aiming for Idaho's Redfish Lake, captive-bred cousins of Lonesome Larry, the only Redfish sockeye to make it back in 1992.
Canadian biologist Kim Hyatt said he doubted this year's Osoyoos run would be larger than 2008's, but should be close. He said this run behaved similarly to sockeye stocks off SW Vancouver Island, with surges in production followed by fairly dramatic declines due to varying marine survival. He said that Osoyoos run has been helped by a fry enhancement project, but about 90 percent of the run is still natural.
Non-treaty fishers are allowed a 1-percent impact on listed sockeye, while treaty Indian impacts are capped at 7 percent (about 12,000 fish this year).
With most summer chinook headed for the Upper Columbia, and none of them on the feds' verboten list, the only real ESA constraints on the fisheries are related to steelhead and the precious Idaho sockeye.
They have pegged the Upper-C's summer chinook run at 71,000 fish, nearly 30 percent greater than last year's return. With most of the run from hatcheries and unlisted, treaty and non-treaty fishermen will each get about 18,000 to catch. Colville and Wanapum tribal fisheries come out on the non-treaty share, with more than 10,000 fish allocated for harvest above Priest Rapids Dam.
Harvest managers announced June 10 they had boosted what is left of the spring chinook run by 5,000 fish to 165,000. This week they bumped it up another 5,000 fish. They officially stopped tallying the spring run on June 15, mainly for accounting reasons, but that doesn't mean most of the chinook passing the dam right now aren't still headed for the Snake.
By June 16, DART numbers showed still more chinook were headed up the Snake past Ice Harbor, compared to the count at Priest Rapids in the mainstem Columbia above the confluence of the two rivers. And PIT-tag data collected at Bonneville Dam shows a considerable number of Idaho McCall Hatchery chinook still passing the dam.
The managers estimated that about 23,000 wild spring/summer Snake chinook have returned to the mouth of the Columbia this year. They pegged the summer steelhead run at 352,000, close to last year's 355,000 fish. They finally opened the spring steelhead fishery below Bonneville Dam for a few days, beginning June 12. They had delayed the opening since May 16, out of concern for impacts to ESA-listed spring chinook.
On June 22, the summer recreational season is scheduled to open, with anglers allowed to keep all chinook, chinook jacks, sockeye, and hatchery steelhead. Several short commercial gillnet openings were slated as well. -B. R.
[4] Corps Fights Birds At John Day Dam
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers shut down operation of their temporary spillway weirs at John Day Dam June 4, after efforts to reduce smolt predation by gulls below the dam failed to deter the ravenous avian predators.
The Corps had strung wire across the tailrace this year to deter the birds from feeding there, a state of affairs that came to light last year when the two weirs were first placed in spillway bays for testing.
As for the weirs, which are designed to corral migrating smolts and send them over the top of the spillway, "They work too good," said Corps' spokesman Mike Langeslay.
He said the weirs concentrated smolts in such a narrow band in the tailrace below the dam that it has created a great feeding area for the gulls, which are believed to come from large landfills in the vicinity, where urban centers like Seattle haul their garbage in by the trainload.
Langeslay said some crucial wires in the array, which were hanging too low over the water, broke when they were tightened. What remained of the new avian wire array didn't deter the birds.
The Corps tried pyrotechnics, and buzzed the gulls with model planes and helicopters, but the gulls remained undeterred.
Now the Corps has shut down the weirs and is spilling 30 percent of the river flow 24 hours a day, in a bulk pattern that spreads out the smolts in the tailrace, which officials figure is reducing the birds' success rate.
Langeslay said the Corps will be losing this year's test of the temporary weirs. However, he said, the agency has been pleased with the overall performance of the TSWs, which should help reach the new BiOp's survival objectives for fish passage at John Day Dam.
Next year's migrating smolts should find even more help passing the dam. By then, along with a new avian array, an extended-length spillway deflector should be in place to control "edge effort" south of the spillway, said Langeslay.
Currently, there exists a dead zone in the tailrace flows below two skeleton bays where no turbines are in place and predators like pikeminnow like to congregate.
Last year--when the TSWs were first tested--PIT-tagged smolt data seemed to show considerably less survival below the dam than in other recent years. It's still an ongoing puzzle for researchers, since PIT-tag survival above the dam added up to more than 100 percent.
Langeslay said survival of acoustic-tagged fish last year did not agree with the PIT-tag results. He said the questionable results seem to point to the likelihood that one or more assumptions of the PIT-tag study had been violated. There are no results in yet this year for acoustic-tagged fish.
In a June 2 letter to Redden, the Corps spelled out 2008 summer hydro operations and cautioned the Court they might be shutting down the TSWs at John Day over the avian predation issue.
Both sides in the litigation have agreed to maintain Redden's previous court orders on flows and spills until some final settlement is reached, though in their latest missive, the feds said they had significant reservations about implementing actions outside operations agreed upon by most regional players in the 2008 BiOp.
But plaintiffs argued last week that the proposed 2009 summer operations still shortchanged the fish.
In a June 10 letter to the judge, environmental and fishing groups, the state of Oregon, and the Nez Perce Tribe panned the feds' decision to follow the 2008 BiOp's call for taking less water from Montana's Libby and Hungry Horse reservoirs in the wettest 80 percent of all years. They said it meant more than a 20-percent reduction in summer flow augmentation.
Several years ago, an independent science panel decided the change in drafting Montana's largest reservoirs made sense, since it had an unmeasurable impact on flows at McNary Dam, and improved conditions for resident fish in Montana.
Even though the feds have promised to spill through the end of August, the BiOp plaintiffs criticized the feds' wish to implement the BiOp's call for an early cutoff of summer spill if juvenile fish numbers fall below 300 a day for three days in a row. Otherwise, the summer spill would continue through Aug. 31, regardless of the number of migrating fish passing the dams.
On June 10, Redden approved the federal plan for summer hydro operations, which calls for the same spill levels he had ordered in recent years. -B. R.
[5] More Data Shows Hatchery Steelhead Relatively Unfit For Reproductive Duty
A years-long study of hatchery and wild steelhead in Oregon's Hood River has found even more startling results than researchers announced two years ago, when they found returning hatchery fish significantly underperformed wild fish when spawning in the wild.
In a 2007 article in Science, they estimated that reproductive fitness was reduced by about 40 percent per generation for two generations of steelhead that spawned in the wild after beginning life at the Hood River hatchery facility.
The latest work from Oregon State University researcher Michael Blouin found that a fish born in the wild as the offspring of two hatchery-reared steelhead averaged only 37 percent of the reproductive fitness of a fish with two wild parents, and 87 percent of the fitness if one parent was wild and one was from a hatchery.
"The message should be clear," the researchers wrote in their report's conclusion. "Captive breeding for reintroduction or supplementation can have a serious, long-term downside in some taxa, and so should not be considered as a panacea for the recovery of all endangered populations."
This research, published in Biology Letters, was supported by grants from BPA and the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. Scientists have been able to genetically "fingerprint" three generations of returning fish to determine who their parents were, and whether they were wild or hatchery fish.
The OSU results may rouse supporters of supplementation, mainly tribes, who point to increasing fall chinook numbers in the Snake River and spring chinook in the Yakima and other Northwest rivers as success stories for using hatchery-raised fish to boost natural populations. -B. R.
[6] Sea Lions Split For The Season
As the spring chinook season tails off into summer, most of the salmon-munching sea lions at Bonneville Dam have taken a powder and are heading for breeding grounds off Southern California and Baja.
The number of the marine mammals sighted near the dam has plunged into single digits from the nearly four dozen counted April 22, split nearly evenly between California and Stellar sea lions.
"It is very likely the removal program by the states is a major reason for the decrease in California sea lion presence," according to a May 22 report by the Corps of Engineers.
Ten were euthanized, four were relocated to zoos or aquariums, and eight others were tagged with acoustic transmitters and released.
The report said that average daily number of California sea lions was about 10, the lowest since 2004. Fifty-three different individuals were identified, with 19 visiting Bonneville's salmon smorgasbord for the first time.
Biologists said that predation figures will be lower than last year and about equal to 2007. With a larger spring chinook run size this year, the mammals' percentage take was slightly above 2 percent, though the actual numbers consumed may be the second or third highest of the past eight years.
The report also noted that on May 22, a California sea lion was riding on the stern of a tug through the lock at Bonneville Dam, heading upstream. The creature hasn't been seen since. -B. R.
[7] Feds' Report Outlines NW Climate Change Impacts
The Northwest has already begun to see the impacts of climate change, according to a report issued June 16 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, a group of 13 federal agencies overseen by the executive office of the President. The report is an effort to aggregate federal research on climate change. It offered regional summaries, including one for the Northwest.
"Impacts related to changes in snowpack, streamflows, sea level, forests, and other important aspects of life in the Northwest are already underway, with more severe impacts expected over coming decades," according to the report, which said temperatures in the Northwest rose about 1.5º F over the past century.
Average snowpack has declined 25 percent over the past 40 to 70 years in the Cascade Mountains and may decline another 40 percent by the 2040s, the report states.
"Throughout the region, earlier snowmelt will cause a reduction in the amount of water available during the warm season." A shift in the timing of streamflows has already been observed, it adds, with "the peak of spring runoff shifting from a few days earlier in some places to as much as 25 to 30 days earlier in others."
Increasing amounts of rain during winter, rather than snow, will lead to more winter flooding. There are also implications for regional water supply infrastructure, since the region's system presumes that most of the water needed during summer can be stored as snowpack. Storage capacity in Columbia Basin reservoirs is only 30 percent of annual runoff, the report notes, and many small suppliers west of the Cascades store less than 10 percent of their annual flows.
The report summarizes other impacts for the Northwest, including increased insect outbreaks and wildfires. Salmon and other fish species "will experience additional stresses" due to rising water temperatures and declining summer streamflows, and sea-level rise along "vulnerable coastlines will result in increased erosion and the loss of land.
"Among the most vulnerable parts of the coast is the heavily populated south Puget Sound region, which includes the cities of Olympia, Tacoma, and Seattle, Washington." -Ben Tansey
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