[1] Spring Jack Count Going For New Record

Those precocious male salmon that return a year early are messing with Columbia Basin fish managers' heads again this year.

Managers have long equated big jack counts with big returns of adults the following year, but that long-standing linear relation doesn't seem to be working out so well anymore.

To complicate matters even more, this year's jack count is going through the roof. By the middle of May, more than 30,000 had been counted at Bonneville Dam. Their numbers have more than doubled since then.

In 2000, jack counts broke 24,000, a new record, and the following year, more than 400,000 springers were counted at Bonneville Dam.

Last year's spring jack count was also huge--more than 20,000--and managers looked at their steadiest predictor and estimated that nearly 300,000 adults would show up in the Columbia River this spring.

Now that prediction seems way off. On May 13, managers downgraded the run to between 120,000 and 150,000 fish. On May 26, they ran it back up to 160,000. Based on preseason estimated, they figured that 11 percent of the upriver run was wild.

It's a stunning situation--the old rules don't seem to make sense anymore. One bright spot in all this is that federal scientists from Seattle's NMFS Science Center actually predicted this year's jack bonanza.

In March, they reported results from 2008 ocean trawl surveys to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, which led to their tentative conclusion that about 40,000 or more spring chinook jacks should return to Bonneville Dam this year.

Even with the high jack returns in recent years, that's nearly twice as many, and still might signal a spring run in 2010 far larger than anything in the past decade.

But the relationship managers had developed between jacks and next-year adults may be falling apart. In the past several years, big salmon runs haven't materialized from big jack counts. Others say it may have never been there in the first place.

Back in 1994, after a strong El Niño event, only 625 jacks were counted at Bonneville Dam. The following year, only 13,000 adults showed up.

The spring run has also appeared later in recent years. Based on 10-year averages, passage should be 70 percent complete by mid-May. However, since 2006, it has taken longer. The recent 5-year average shows the spring run has been 77 percent completed by May 26.

These anomalies have no easy answers, but point to changes in ocean conditions--conditions that may also cause higher mortality of older fish than in previous years. Others say high seas harvest might be the culprit, but there is no evidence of that. Biologists say it's usual to see about 10 percent of hatchery releases to return as jacks, while only 4 to 5 percent of the wild stocks come back as jacks.

The 2008 run of spring chinook was expected to be one of the best in years--maybe the third-largest since Bonneville Dam's completion in 1938. But it ended up about 33-percent shy of the preseason estimate of 269,000 fish.

And so far this year, with commercial (4,500) and recreational catches (16,000) added in, only about 127,000 fish have shown up. With more than two more weeks of counting to go, there are still more than 1,000 springers passing Bonneville Dam every day.

Earlier this month, Washington and Oregon harvest managers, decided to hold off the May 16 opening of the recreational steelhead fishery in the Columbia below the I-205 bridge, since allotted impacts to ESA-listed spring chinook may have already been reached in earlier fisheries this year. It's still not open.

"For the second straight year, returns of upriver spring chinook have fallen short of expectations," said Cindy LeFleur, WDFW Columbia River policy coordinator. "It's disappointing that we have to delay the steelhead fishery, but we need to do everything we can to conserve wild chinook salmon still in the river."

The steelhead closure could extend as late as June 16, unless returns of upriver spring chinook begin to pick up. The closure will not affect the shad fishery, which opened downstream from Bonneville Dam on May 16 as scheduled.

Managers said if the spring run ends up around 164,000 chinook, non-Indian fisheries already conducted will have almost reached the legal impact level of 1.9 percent to ESA-listed springers.

The bad news is if the run size comes in below that, it means the fisheries have overshot their allotments. A sliding scale used by harvest managers called for a 2.2-percent impact from non-Indian fishers when the run is close to 300,000.

An upriver recreational fishery at Ringold Hatchery near Pasco was also slated to be closed May 18, but no changes to the Snake River recreational fishery were proposed.

Gillnetters in the lower river were still able to do some harvesting in select areas where they target fish returning to netpens. Since it is out of the mainstem path of ESA-listed chinook, impacts on them are negligible.

Spokesmen for commercial and recreational fishers also used the May 14 harvest forum to trade barbs. Gillnetters said their spring fishery has stayed within legal ESA impact levels, while, sporties have likely gone over.

Sport fishing was closed to spring chinook below Bonneville on April 23 and above it on May 1.

Since both fisheries keep only marked hatchery fish, they have a marginal effect on wild fish that are protected under the ESA. Hatchery fish make up about 85 percent of the normal spring run, but nothing about the spring chinook seems very normal these days.

Meanwhile, up on the lower Snake where many of the springers are heading, more than 20,000 jacks and 39,000 adults have been counted at Ice Harbor Dam. The late run is within a few hundred adults of last year's number at this time. When all is said and done, it's likely to beat last year's spring count and turn out to be the best return since 2004, but it's a far cry from more than 150,000 by this time in 2001.

Stay tuned for next year. Applying the old jack/adult ratio to the number of jacks counted at Bonneville this spring, would predict a spring upriver chinook in 2010 of a million fish or so. -Bill Rudolph

[2] Optimism Wanes As Judge Offers 'Guidance' Over BiOp Changes

An Oregon federal judge has released a letter that makes good his promise to offer guidance to the Obama administration in its study of the new hydro BiOp. But Judge James Redden's suggestions are not exactly what BPA customers were looking for.

"His letter is ominous and puzzling," said Scott Corwin, executive director of the Public Power Council. He said Judge Redden's remarks don't track with his earlier statements.

Back in March, Redden told litigants in the salmon battle that the government's latest plan could use some tweaking, but, overall, it "was a pretty good BiOp."

In his May 18 letter, Redden gave the region little credit for salmon recovery efforts, saying federal agencies have spent most of the decade "treading water and avoiding their obligations under the Endangered Species Act. Only recently have they begun to commit the kind of financial and political capital necessary to save these threatened and endangered species, some of which are on the brink of extinction. We simply can't afford to waste another decade."

The additional actions outlined in his latest letter "may avoid another remand," he said.

But one judge's idea of tweaking--more flow, spill, a seemingly open-ended suite of new habitat actions, and a contingency plan for breaching lower Snake dams--has gotten other customers, who were ebullient in March, reeling from shock.

At the March BiOp hearing, Redden said that estuary habitat was the BiOp's biggest problem. He also praised the collaborative effort, and defendants were optimistic an agreement would soon be reached.

But Redden tipped his hand in April, when federal defendants called for a meeting to announce more estuary actions at a cost of $5 million a year. He barely batted an eye, and told parties the plan needed plenty of more work. But he finally seemed to be satisfied with the feds' jeopardy analysis; he didn't even mention it.

Now he doesn't even give the feds much credit for their "trending towards recovery" jeopardy analysis.

In his letter, Redden reiterated his concerns over the feds' analysis, and said their conclusion that all 13 listed ESUs in the Columbia Basin were heading toward recovery was "arbitrary and capricious" for a bevy of reasons.

Redden said the feds relied "improperly" on "speculative, uncertain, and unidentified estuary and estuary habitat improvement actions" to find that these stocks are, "in fact, trending toward recovery."

"This development could fracture the region and set it back decades," said Terry Flores, executive director of Northwest RiverPartners. Flores said not only is the hydro BiOp at risk, but so is the new harvest BiOp, which manages both tribal and non-tribal harvests for the next 10 years.

The harvest opinion depends on the same jeopardy analysis as the hydro BiOp, and one irrigators' group has promised to sue over it if the judge throws out the hydro BiOp.

Flores said the agreements among BPA and tribes and states to fund nearly a billion dollars' worth of habitat restoration and new hatcheries could also be in jeopardy. Those tribal accords say that either party could walk if there is a "material" change to either hydro operations or harvests.

In his latest missive, Redden said the feds' own scientists had already concluded that the benefits from many of the proposed mitigation measures were unsupported by scientific literature.

In the March hearing, feds said the issue had more to do with a lack of data and literature, rather than any judgments that such work had no value.

Redden also said the feds "assign implausible and arbitrary numerical survival improvements to tributary habitat actions, even though no particular actions are specified after 2009, and there is no scientific data to support those predictions."

The feds have argued that their numbers are supported by "expert opinion," since little research exists in this realm, either, although there is a peer-reviewed article that suggests more smolts are produced in places where habitat restoration work is completed.

Redden also faulted the 2008 hydro BiOp for not including performance standards to measure whether habitat improvements actually result in the predicted survival improvements. The Corps of Engineers recently announced the financial stimulus bill includes more than $20 million in added spending for BiOp-related projects.

Even more, he wants the feds to add a contingency plan for the listed stocks if the habitat improvements and other actions fail to keep the stocks from avoiding jeopardy.

And he complained again about the feds not offering a "rational explanation" for why the BiOp calls for spilling less water than his temporary court order that will be in effect again in spring and summer.

The feds have argued that their analysis shows ESA-listed steelhead and chinook would benefit more from less spill and more barging later in the season.

An independent panel of scientists agreed with the feds' appraisal, which also found little to no correlation between spill and adult returns. But the panel said more barging might hurt ESA-listed sockeye, although they admitted there was no data to support that conclusion.

The judge sided with the science panel's recommendations.

In his letter, Redden reminded federal attorneys that in April, they had said the government would not amend the 2008 BiOp. But the judge said it is "clear" that the concept of adaptive management is flexible enough to implement additional actions within the existing BiOp.

So in his own prescriptive way, the judge set forth exactly what the feds must do to satisfy him. That includes more money for estuary and tributary action, along with monitoring and evaluation. Evidently, the recent MOA signed with Washington state that added another $5 million in annual estuary spending was not enough to satisfy him.

He also wants specific projects identified for improving tributaries and the estuary beyond 2009, along with periodic reports to the court and independent scientific oversight of the actions, and a commitment to additional flows in both the Snake and Columbia rivers.

By agreeing to such terms, critics say such open-ended funding and flow commitments could have profound impacts on the region's next power plan.

The judge also wants the feds to develop a contingency plan to study alternative hydro actions like flow augmentation "and/or" reservoir drawdowns, "as well as what it will take to breach the lower Snake dams if all other measures fail (i.e., independent scientific evaluation, permitting, funding, and congressional approval)."

NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco was in Portland early this week to hear from her own scientists and others regarding issues relating to the 2008 BiOp (see Story 3).

Environmentalists are excited that Lubchenco, who comes to her new job with a history of environmental advocacy as a professor at Oregon State University, will be able to get close to the breaching question.

However, any policy call on these possible BiOp additions will undoubtedly be made at a higher level. Lubchenco's boss is former Washington Gov. Gary Locke, who didn't support dam breaching during his terms in Olympia.

Meanwhile, back at BPA, the bureaucrats in the trenches were reported to be glum about any possible outcome. The consensus? There's no scenario that's a winner.

If NOAA sticks to its own best available science and the Obama administration backs it up, the judge seems certain to rule against it. Then, it would be on to the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

If that occurs, the harvest BiOp and the Upper Snake BiOp could go down as well, which could impact the Snake River adjudication process. Water interests promised some years ago that they will go after harvests if the Upper Snake BiOp is overturned.

It may be telling that Redden's latest letter went out to 42 different attorneys. -B. R.

[3] Obama Officials Get Crash Course In New Salmon Plan

Several high-ranking members of the Obama Administration came out West earlier this week to hear from scientists and sovereigns involved in the latest plan to operate federal dams and recover ESA-listed salmon and steelhead. The public was not invited.

On Tuesday, Nancy Sutley, chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, and Dr. Jane Lubchenco, administrator of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), as well as administration officials from the Army Corps of Engineers and the Department of the Interior, met in Portland with representatives of the governors of the four Pacific Northwest states and representatives of eight Indian tribes of the Columbia Basin.

Armed with a series of questions that could have been written by plaintiffs in the latest litigation over the salmon plan, they met with regional scientists in the morning, and spent an hour with their own agency scientists, who briefed them on their newest research.

Several attendees said the questions were more policy-based than simple straight forward questions about the science, but issues like the potential breaching of lower Snake dams and drawdowns were not mentioned at all in the science session.

The six questions also echoed parts of BiOp judge James Redden's May 18 "guidance" letter to the new administration. One asked for views on what other actions and decision-making framework could be implemented if the current plan "does not yield the expected benefits."

Another question asked for input on the importance of habitat restoration, especially in the tributaries and estuary, and whether the BiOp was specific enough about future actions in this arena. "Please provide your view of the role of habitat restoration programs and the methodology in the BiOp and what additional actions could be taken by the Action Agencies regarding habitat restoration."

But the question and answer format was quickly discarded as an appropriate approach to the meetings, which some participants said were called on too short notice.

The afternoon session heard from representatives of states and tribes, where pro-BiOp participants far outnumbered critics Oregon, the Nez Perce and Spokane Tribes.

Charles Hudson, spokesman for the Columbia Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, said the meeting was worthwhile, and was, as billed, a listening session, where each sovereign (four states, eight tribes) recited long-held positions on salmon recovery. Three of CRITFC's four member tribes support the new BiOp.

Hudson said, though the meeting wasn't intended to serve as a head count, nine of the parties expressed support for the BiOp or the collaborative effort. "Each group, in a nutshell, said if we were left to write a BiOp in seclusion, sure, you'd have nine different looking BiOps, but the Basin doesn't work that way."

One part of the new BiOp that did come in for a measure of criticism, said Hudson, was the way adaptive management is incorporated into it. Some BiOp supporters say the governance issue needs to be more clearly spelled out. But, the B-word (breaching) never came up in the afternoon session, either.

Montana representative Bruce Measure said that Lubchenco and Sutley heard one speaker after another describe their positions in the two-and-one-half year collaborative process ordered by the judge, which led to hundreds of technical and policy meetings as the new BiOp was developed. He hoped that the meeting deterred plaintiffs' characterization of the new plan as simply something put together by the "Bush Administration."

According to participants, the new administration officials listened intently, but were quiet for the most part. They had already heard privately from fellow Democrats in the Northwest political delegation, who reportedly had strongly urged them to leave the plan alone. As one long-time player in the salmon wars said, the delegation's message to the administration was clear. "Don't think you can unravel this and fix it."

The officials released a statement on Tuesday afternoon. "This was, for all of us, an important and constructive meeting that allowed us to gain further insight regarding the biological opinion on hydropower operations now before the court. While we have already received a lot of public input on the issue, this was another opportunity to listen and was not intended to supplement the administrative record. This meeting allowed us to better understand the science of salmon recovery and the sovereigns' individual views.

"While the meeting was already planned, its importance was heightened by Judge Redden's recent letter to the parties in this litigation. We share the court's concern for a final outcome that respects the law, the science and the salmon. It's only by recovering these protected salmon that once again fishermen, tribal and non-tribal alike, and all of us concerned about the environment will be able to properly enjoy the Northwest's bounty.

"While it's certainly too early for any of us to reach a judgment about the biological opinion, this meeting was a crucial step in arriving at that judgment. We are grateful for the candor and concern all the participants showed at the meeting."

On Wednesday, they were off to visit Lower Monumental Dam on the lower Snake River, and Thursday Lubchenco planned to be in Seattle on other NOAA business.

Measure said the administration is not obligated to respond to the court at all, Lubchenco and Sutley's judgment may or may not be included in the Justice Department's response to Judge Redden's May 18 letter that is expected by the end of June. -B. R.

[4] New Colville Tribal Hatchery On Track For Full Funding

The Northwest Power and Conservation Council voted earlier this month to continue the planning process for a $37-million tribal hatchery just below Chief Joseph Dam on the Columbia River. Construction is slated to begin in 2010.

"The Chief Joseph Hatchery will be an important tool in restoring salmon in the upper Columbia River watershed and providing new harvest opportunities for tribal and non-tribal fishers," said council chair Bill Booth. "We are pleased to see this project moving ahead."

The hatchery will produce up to 3 million smolts a year--summer/fall and spring chinook--to help rebuild natural runs and add harvest opportunities. It will be operated according to guidelines developed by the recent scientific review of Columbia Basin hatcheries.

BPA's cost may be partially offset by mid-Columbia PUDs, which have obligations to boost fish numbers as part of the new FERC licenses. -B. R.

[5] WDFW Wants Public Comment On Hatchery Reform

The Washington Fish and Wildlife Commission will take final public input on a proposed hatchery and fishery reform policy during its June 5-6 meeting in Olympia. Also at that meeting, commissioners will hear public testimony on candidate criteria and the search process for a permanent director of the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW).

The June meeting offers the last opportunity for public input on a draft policy designed to advance WDFW's ongoing effort to ensure hatchery operations help conserve and recover naturally spawning salmon and steelhead populations while also supporting sustainable fisheries.

The proposed policy is available for review on the Washington Fish and Wildlife Commission's website. Written comments on the draft policy will be accepted through June 1 and can be emailed to commission@dfw.wa.gov or mailed to the Washington Fish and Wildlife Commission, 600 Capitol Way North, Olympia, WA 98501-1091. Final commission action is scheduled for the July 10-11 meeting in Olympia. -B. R.

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Publisher: Cyrus Noë, Editor: Bill Rudolph
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