[1] Is Time Running Out For Spring Chinook?
By the third week in April, nervous Columbia Basin fish managers relaxed a little after spring chinook fish counts finally began climbing at Bonneville Dam. On April 23, more than 2,000 were tallied past the dam, more than twice the entire season's count through April 18.
Only 8,500 chinook had been counted by then, and it seemed almost impossible the run would hit the managers' nearly 300,000-fish preseason estimate.
The run has continued to build, but without blockbuster days like in 2001 when 27,000 fish were counted in a single day, that goal seems more impossible to reach.
Now that 47,000 chinook have passed the dam, managers have still been mum about a run update. Privately, they say the run looks like it's less than half over, but expect it to reach the half-way point sometime within the next week.
Meanwhile, jack counts, are soaring. Nearly 7,000 so far, compared to around 1,500 by this time last year. However, 2008 counts ended up around 22,000--and have provided managers with most of the evidence for their optimistic preseason prediction for 2009's spring run.
Other managers feel that no matter what happens from now on, it will be hard for the spring run to reach its preseason estimate. Tribal managers are particularly miffed that the states conducted their spring chinook fishery without enough conservation buffers in place.
They expressed their concerns in an April 28 letter from the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission to the states' fish and wildlife departments. "The states have taken the position that there is no compelling evidence at present that the upriver run will not meet the pre-season forecast, but with each passing day of low counts at Bonneville Dam it becomes less likely that the exceptional run timing needed to support the states' lingering hope of a strong run will materialize.
"The timing of the 2009 run is obviously late. The timing of recent returns appears to be later and later. There are many potential factors related to the shift in the timing of the return at Bonneville Dam including cold water temperatures, increased pinniped predation, and increased fishing downstream of Bonneville Dam. A joint investigation into the causes for the apparent timing shift, the failure of the preseason forecast, and whether the timing shift will persist in the future is necessary."
The tribes said assumptions underlying spring chinook management and the catch sharing agreement with non-Indians are "incorrect," and strongly favor non-treaty fisheries, a situation that needs to be remedied under the US v. Oregon management regime.
While the tribes above Bonneville were having a hard time netting enough fish for their "first fish" ceremonies, non-Indian sport fishers had landed nearly 17,000 spring chinook below the dam. Gillnetters had caught another 3,280. Managers said that was close to expectations based on the expected run.
CRITFC harvest manager Stuart Ellis said it seems unlikely that the tribes will open any commercial net fishery for spring chinook this year. But he said catches had improved for their ceremonial and subsistence fisheries, with 7,000 to 8,000 caught, and another 730 landed in their platform hook and line fishery.
But water temperatures still haven't budged much above 10 °C, and may be the main reason fish aren't moving much upstream. So far, this year's numbers are tracking close to last year's, but are even later.
The 2008 run of spring chinook was expected to be one of the best in years--maybe the third-largest since Bonneville Dam's completion in 1938. But it ended up about 33-percent shy of the preseason estimate of 269,000 fish.
In 2008, May 4 was the peak day when the spring count nearly hit 10,000 fish. At that point, about 40 percent of the run had passed Bonneville Dam.
If this year's run is a week or so later than 2008's, it is possible that only about 15 percent to 20 percent of the run has passed Bonneville. In that case, the final tally might close in on the preseason estimate, but it would also mean the run would likely be the latest in modern history.
CRITFC's Ellis said he didn't think the run would end up anywhere near the forecast, but noted that in 2006, only about 22 percent of the run had passed Bonneville Dam by this time.
Meanwhile, California and southern Oregon salmon fishermen, who will be sitting out most of this year's fall chinook season for the second year in a row, got some good news.
Gary Locke, ex-Washington governor and the newly minted Secretary of Commerce, extended last year's "disaster" declaration and released more than $53 million to help fishers and related businesses. The funds are what's left of the $170 million allocated after last year's disaster declaration.
Scientists have pinned most of the blame for the Sacramento fall run crash on poor ocean conditions in 2005 and 2006, and over-reliance on few hatchery stocks. -Bill Rudolph
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