[7] West Coast Salmon Numbers Expected To Improve

This year's fall chinook run on the Sacramento River is expected to double last year's worst-ever return of 66,000, but that would still put it near the bottom--the third lowest return since 1992. Last year, sport and commercial salmon fisheries in northern California and southern Oregon were shut down for the first time in history.

A task force is still investigating the causes of the crash. Ocean conditions are a prime suspect, along with increased water withdrawals, and 43 other possibilities. Their draft findings are expected in April.

But the Klamath wild fall run is expected to better than double its spawner floor of 35,000 this coming year. Managers target harvest to allow for about 41,000 returning spawners while the stock is still classified as overfished.

But most eyes were on the Sacramento, home to huge hatchery returns just a few years ago.

"This is grim news for the state of California, said Don Hansen, chair of the Pacific Fishery Management Council, in a Feb. 25 press release. We won't be able to talk about this without using the word 'disaster.'"

Hansen said Fort Bragg fishermen had made a tremendous appeal for some sort of season to target the healthy Klamath run in 2009, and central Oregon folks have asked for a season on hatchery coho, "But that was before this forecast was released," he said. "The Council process will consider the pros and cons of this issue thoroughly at our meetings in March and April."

More than 20,000 jacks were counted in the Klamath in 2008--one of the top two jack counts since 1986. And the Council estimated that the age-3 component of the Klamath fall chinook stock is huge. It was estimated at 474,000 last September.

Further north, the overall picture is much better. More than a million hatchery coho are expected to return to the Columbia River, with the Oregon coastal coho run expected to be the second highest since 1991.

Chinook stocks are a mixed bag, with lower Columbia tules expected to come in about the same as last year, though higher numbers are expected from tule stocks below Bonneville Dam than above. Managers say the different mix may not be beneficial to ocean fisheries.

The Council expects fishing communities north of Cape Falcon to benefit from increased harvest levels this year, but the story will be much bleaker further south. Staffers figured that the average economic impact to fishing communities from 2003-20007 was $66 million ($38 million commercial, $28 million recreational), but only about $7 million last year. Congress approved a $170-million disaster relief package for fishers and dependent businesses last July.

The PFMC will develop fishing options at its March meeting, put them out for public comment and recommend a season to NMFS at its April season. -B. R.

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