[1] Columbia Basin Coho Run Comes On Strong

The stock markets may have tanked over the past few weeks, but coho salmon futures look brighter than ever. Columbia Basin harvest managers have doubled their estimate of this year's coho run after a strong showing of the late-season salmon in the lower river.

On Oct. 2, managers bumped the early-run coho numbers to 250,000 from a preseason estimate of 96,000. They didn't upgrade the later running coho stocks at the time, but pointed out that the late run forecast would nearly have to double from the estimate of 86,000 to allow a 24-hour target coho fishery in the lower river. The run would have to be 160,000 or so to offset harvest of another 5,000 coho in the gillnets, to meet the legal limit of incidental take percentage of ESA-listed coho.

"Indicators look positive for an upgrade," harvest managers said in the Oct. 7 joint staff report. So far, their predictions have significantly lowballed returns. But since the estimates are based on jack returns, they can be iffy at best, especially in the case of coho. The early run is generally one that migrates south of the Columbia; the later run migrates north.

Well, by Oct. 14, they had upgraded the late-coho run to 200,000 and lower river gillnetters were given more fishing time.

Coho jacks return to native streams or hatcheries in the same year as they migrate to sea, but most adults return the following year. Poor near-shore conditions that decimate jacks could easily lead to a significant underestimate of an adult run, which has left the region.

So although harvest managers had gone on record saying that this year's Columbia coho run would only be 35 percent of the recent 10-year average of 476,000, others had already predicted that 2008 would likely be a good coho year--but in a more qualitative way.

NOAA Fisheries' monitoring of ocean and biological indicators has tracked a huge increase in productive ocean conditions since 2006. The feds stay away from making numerical forecasts, but maintain a red, yellow and green system to assess overall conditions for fish as poor, intermediate, or good. For 2007, they gave the ocean intermediate marks. For 2008, it's all green.

The University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group estimated a rosy 5-percent return for 2008 Oregon coho, which they acknowledged was at odds with state and tribal harvest managers' predictions.

"Ocean conditions," the UW folks said last May, "as measured by our simple model, were better than average for OPI [Oregon Production Index] coho smolts that entered the ocean in 2007. The spring transition was near average and spring sea level was low (low sea level is indicative of good upwelling and strong north-south transport). January through March SST in 2008 was among the coldest on record and strongly favorable.

"However, jack (2-year-old male) returns in the fall of 2007 to the Columbia River were at low levels typical of the 1990s, resulting in a projected return rate of 0.9 percent. It was also notable that upwelling in June, July and August 2007 were weak, and coastal ocean temperatures failed to cool as they typically do.

"These summer conditions are not considered in our simple model, but may help to explain the discrepancies between our model forecast and the jack-based forecast that calls for much lower return rates," they said.

Now, managers are getting a little worried that tributaries like the Cowlitz may be swamped with hatchery coho this year. WDFW's Joe Hymer said that based on early returns, 100,000 coho may return to the Cowlitz alone.

Meanwhile, harvest managers opened the fishing season on Oct. 8 and 9 to non-Indian gillnetters in the lower Columbia. Between Sept. 18 and Oct. 9, they caught more than 8,400 coho and nearly 13,000 chinook. They were given even more time to fish between Oct. 15 and 16.

Upriver, beyond Bonneville Dam, treaty Indian fishers were still mopping up, with a total of 177 tribal nets counted in Zone 6 pools. Nearly 700 nets were counted in a mid-September aerial survey. They were expected to have hauled in more than 107,000 chinook by Oct. 23 and had already caught nearly 19,000 chinook by Oct. 10. By the 23rd, they were expected to reach a harvest rate of 18.4 percent on B-Index steelhead, close to their impact limit of 20 percent.

Last year, the Columbia's coho run totaled about 319,000 fish, 69 percent of the 10-year average. If this year's run finishes up in the 500,000-fish range, it would be the third- or fourth-best run since the 1.2-million coho return in 2001, when ocean conditions were highly productive.

Once again, harvest managers may have to get used to managing big numbers.

In its September update, NOAA Fisheries reported extremely good conditions for fish, including the most negative PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] since 1999 (and the most negative in summer since the 1950s, should it remain negative through September); the coldest winter ocean temperatures in at least the past 11 years; cool surface temperatures during summer (although not the coldest) and deep-water temperatures in the continental shelf the coldest in at least 11 years; the earliest biological spring transition of the past 11 years; and one of the highest levels of Northern copepod biomass in a decade.

"All signs to date indicate very high returns of coho in 2009," said the feds. "We are almost certain that the proportion of coho returning in 2009 will rival the 4 percent seen for fish that entered the sea in 2000 and 2002. We also expect spring chinook runs in 2010 and 2011 to rival the high returns of this species seen in 2001 and 2002." -Bill Rudolph

[2] Science Panel's Spill/Transport Review Faces More Scrutiny

At the Oct. 2 IT meeting, NOAA Fisheries thanked the independent science panel for their recent report recommending changes to the feds' spring transport policy, but said it wasn't sold on the idea.

The panel called for maintaining a "spread-the-risk" policy that keeps spilling at dams while collecting fish for transport downstream. The feds plan to stop spilling for two weeks in May at dams where fish are collected, to give as many as possible a free ride past the dams.

Bruce Suzumoto, assistant regional administrator for NOAA Fisheries, characterized the difference between the ISAB recommendation and the feds' position as "trading uncertainty for real benefits."

Suzumoto, a surprise attendee at the Oct. 2 meeting of the Implementation Team, which is made up of mid-level policy managers, spoke after participants heard a presentation on the new ISAB report by its chair Rich Alldredge, a statistics professor from Washington State University.

His PowerPoint presentation was the same one he delivered two weeks earlier when he presented the panel's results to the Northwest Power and Conversation Council, based on months of examining the tradeoffs between using spill at dams to pass fish and transporting them past the hydro system.

The ISAB report (NW Fishletter 252) suggested that stopping spill might shortchange survival of ESA-listed sockeye and unlisted lamprey, even though they admitted they really had little to no data to support the notion.

The brand-new 2008 BiOp calls for ending all spill at collector dams for two weeks in May and barging as many fish as possible, to boost ESA-listed steelhead returns. It's a strategy supported by analysis from NOAA's COMPASS model to reach performance standards called for in the latest salmon plan.

At the IT meeting, Ritchie Graves, NOAA Fisheries' hydro branch chief, pointed out that the ISAB's analysis--which suggested overall fish survival increased as the percentage of spill went up--was complicated by a number of factors, including the finding that about 70 percent of juvenile steelhead tend to use surface passage routes regardless of the amount of water spilled at dams. He cautioned that this could be a "confounding factor."

But Alldredge said the ISAB still felt spill should be the default option for passage at dams. He said the panel was also concerned about evidence that showed barged fish had increased stray rates as adults. But that turned out to be more complicated as well.

Corps' of Engineers' biologist Rudd Turner said it was mostly hatchery fish that strayed, like Snake River steelhead wandering into the Deschutes.

NOAA Fisheries' researcher Bill Muir said some fish actually showed up in the right place after straying on their way home. "Some hatcheries are worse than others," he said.

Alldredge observed that the PIT-tag data used by NOAA and its COMPASS model may be short-changing inriver survival benefits, since there is a little information suggesting non-detected fish (that pass dams via spillway or turbines) return at higher rates. "The benefit of transportation may be inflated," he said.

In recent years, the feds have suggested another possibility--that the PIT-tagged results underestimate overall returns because the bypass systems select for smaller fish, which have overall lower survival.

But Alldredge raised another big question--what fish should we be using to measure survival? No one ventured to answer that one. The feds have already gone on record saying that trying to measure survival of truly undetected fish is not science, since it is impossible to accurately determine the number of undetected fish starting their journey through the hydro system.

Graves said the ISAB position assumed a differential effect of tagging, and Alldredge agreed such a line of questioning "opens the Pandora's Box of differential mortality."

But Graves said tagging wouldn't help answer questions about sockeye and lamprey survival, since at present, sockeye are too small to acoustically tag, and lamprey have the wrong body shape. With those constraints, he didn't see any way to get more survival data about them over the next three to five years.

The ISAB's report expressed concern that without spill, sockeye survival could go down significantly, because there was some evidence that they showed signs of significant descaling at bypass systems--which would be their only route past dams besides turbines if spill was ended

Graves pointed out that sockeye descaling rates have decreased at John Day and Bonneville dams in recent years, and there was some evidence that descaling seen at juvenile monitoring sites at dams may have actually occurred before the fish had entered the bypass systems.

Alldredge told the IT that the science panel's embrace of the spread-the-risk policy was more of a "philosophical concern" than a position based on data, though he did say juvenile survival results from 2006 and 2007 show some evidence that more spill "works."

The ISAB review also suggested that putting more fish in the river might reduce overall predation, since the sheer volume of juvenile fish might overwhelm predators, leading to an overall reduction in predation rates.

But Graves said preliminary data from the 2008 migration with "lots of steelhead" migrating inriver, have shown that birds at Crescent Island, near the confluence of the Snake and Columbia, were selecting juvenile steelhead as prey to the exclusion of chinook. "It gets real complicated out there," he said, when scientists try to sort out all the factors in the food chain.

Corps' biologist Turner said his agency was looking at the report to see if there were any feasible research objectives that could be added to their 2009 program. At this point, that seems unlikely, because of financial constraints. The questions raised by the science panel may never be answered.

Besides, the COMPASS model has already spit out an answer that's buried deep in the administrative record recently presented to the court in the latest BiOp litigation. It says the court-ordered pro-spill, less-barging regime that has been in place since 2005 would reduce overall steelhead returns by 18 percent over the new BiOp's May operation. -B. R.

[3] New Harvest Proposal Irks Netters

Recreational fishers of the Columbia River are pushing for a big change in salmon harvest regimes--one that would push commercial gillnetters out of the mainstem altogether and concentrate the netters' efforts in the "select" areas where fish are now raised to complement their catches.

The sporties explained their plan in a white paper released last month by the Northwest Sportfishing Industry Association, a group that represents more than 300 sport fishing-related businesses across the region. It calls for a major expansion of the net pen projects, where hatchery salmon are raised and released, in places like Youngs Bay, near Astoria.

By fishing only in the areas around the net pens, the plan says, gillnetters could harvest more returning adults with less impact to ESA-listed stocks. At the same time, the sport sector would be able to boost its own catch, especially spring chinook, while keeping total non-tribal impacts on spring ESA stocks at the same 2-percent level.

The plan estimated that 80 percent of the ESA impacts would be used up by the mainstem recreational fishery.

The proposal was written by several retired fisheries officials, including ODFW's Jim Martin and the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Authority's ex-director, Rod Sando. It was originally presented during a "visioning process" undertaken by stakeholders earlier this year to resolve longstanding allocation gripes over the non-Indian share of spring chinook between the sport and commercial sectors.

The NSIA bailed out of the process after its plan was not included as an option by the Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission. Now the group will try to sell it to Oregon and Washington politicians as a win-win solution for both sport and commercial interests.

However, ODFW expressed some support for the concept at a meeting last month where the remnants of the visioning process had morphed into a new process involving three F&W commission members from Washington and Oregon and assorted advisers--now called the Columbia River Fish Working Group. The group met again Oct. 15.

But it could prove to be a hard sell, since most gillnetters consider the plan just another veiled attempt at getting them off the river forever.

Bruce Buckmaster, a board member of the gillnetter support group Salmon For All, said the recreational side may think the plan is a win-win, but none of them asked the gillnetters what they thought about it. He said most gillnetters feel they would be giving up more than they would get out of the deal.

He said his group supports the essence of the issue--the production of more fish--but he called the NSIA plan "incredibly transparent." He doubted if there was enough room to expand, and whether the Willamette hatchery chinook the sporties suggested be used to augment releases would even succeed. "They didn't even come back to the Willamette this year," said Buckmaster.

He thought the NSIA plan would have more impacts to listed fish than the current regime. He also said since BPA paid for 70 percent of the project, the general public should get more of the benefit in the form of more salmon in the marketplace. "They don't say who's going to pay for any expansion, either," he added.

Previous reports by ODFW and by independent scientists and economists expressed doubts about both the economic value and room for expanding the project, called SAFE [Select Area Fishery Evaluation].

However, in an August 2008 briefing paper by WDFW staff for its F&W commission, staffer Pat Frazier said not all sites had been thoroughly evaluated; "therefore, opportunities to expand the spring chinook program may still exist."

The paper pointed out that the "vast majority of the potential locations identified in the initial phase of this project are located in sloughs or mouths of major Columbia River tributaries and would not be acceptable sites for spring chinook because fisheries harvesting adults returning from net pen releases would occur in locations where SAFE fish commingle with listed spring chinook."

The paper identified one possible new net pen site at Coal Creek Slough, 10 miles below Longview, but it wasn't yet known whether the site had an adequate water supply or if ESA-listed spring chinook used the slough during their upstream migration.

The proposal concluded that the best bet for expansion was at the Youngs Bay site, since it is the largest body of water in the program.

"The size of Youngs Bay allows for both increased rearing potential and participation levels in fisheries," said the WDFW briefing paper. There is also the possibility that another net pen site could be developed in Willapa Bay.

But gillnetters say Youngs Bay is not large enough to handle the fleet. Sport advocates say the commercials could take turns fishing. That idea didn't go over very well with gillnetters.

With fish prices rising in recent years, especially for earlier running stocks, the spring catches have helped the bottom line for commercials. From 2005-2007, gillnetters caught around 4,000 spring chinook annually, another 1,454 from the Blind Slough site and 35 at Deep River, averaging about $255,000 worth of fish from Youngs Bay, $82,000 for Blind Slough and $2,000 for Deep River (Washington's only site).

Coho landings from Youngs Bay accounted for another $250,000, with another $131,000 worth caught at Tongue Point (just east of Astoria) and $62,000 worth from Blind Slough and Deep River.

A 2006 study found the total annual economic impact from the SAFE project was estimated at $3.4 million, with 51 percent from the commercial fisheries and 49 percent from recreational fisheries. Some of the benefits were from increased catches in the ocean provided by the SAFE project releases.

The SAFE program is primarily funded by BPA, which spent $1.8 million on it in 2008. About half a million went to WDFW. But Washington fishermen generally catch only a few percent of the spring and fall chinook and coho produced by the SAFE project.

The sports fishers' latest move to get a larger share of the salmon pie has also been fueled by management snafus. Many recreational fishers were unhappy when harvest managers shut their season down during the Labor Day weekend in the lower Columbia Buoy 10 fishery to protect ESA-listed coho--but then, when the run came in far stronger than predicted, managers allowed gillnetters more time on the water. They were still fishing last week.

Also, last spring, when the Willamette chinook run showed severe weakness, managers allowed gillnetters to fish above the confluence of the Willamette and Columbia below Bonneville Dam, sharing fishing time with sport fishermen. To top it off, recreational license fees are expected to go up in Oregon next year.

The NSIA says their plan, at least, would keep the gillnet fleet on the water, despite their non-selective fishing methods. Other groups would just as soon see the fleet outlawed.

Another sport-based conservation group called the Coastal Conservation Association has signed up hundreds of new members in the Northwest over the past few years. One of its prime objectives is to get all non-Indian gillnets out of the Columbia River, even though a public initiative in Washington to ban all non-Indian nets failed to garner enough votes to pass in 1999.

It's also likely that a proposal to ban gillnets from the Columbia will be introduced in the coming session of the Oregon State Legislature. -B. R.

[4] Niners Reverse District Court Ruling Over Harvest Lawsuit

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court has overturned a district court ruling that found several fishing conservation groups did not have standing to sue the federal government over its support of Canadian harvest levels allowed under the Pacific Salmon Treaty between the U.S. and Canada.

But the case has taken so long, the original reason for filing the lawsuit has pretty much become moot. Treaty talks between the two nations scheduled for 2008 have been completed and harvest cuts are planned.

The groups argued in 2005 that the agreement allowed for catches of ESA-listed stocks that were too high for stocks to recover, and that reconsultation should begin between the two countries under terms of the treaty "in the light of new information about listed salmon."

The three-judge panel found Oct. 8 that the groups do have standing to bring their third claim for relief, but not two others, reversing a decision [Salmon Spawning & Recovery Alliance v. NMFS] in Western Washington District Court that ruled the groups had no standing under any of their three claims. But the point is moot since the U.S. and Canada have completed new talks over harvest issues.

The Niners said no to the groups' first claim--that the harvest BiOp which authorized U.S. entry into the treaty was "arbitrary and capricious."

The groups' second claim asserted the participation of agencies and officials in the continued implementation of the treaty jeopardized listed salmon and was a violation of the ESA, and that such participation was "arbitrary and capricious" in violation of the Administrative Procedures Act.

Their third claim, which the panel upheld, was based on the groups' claim that consultation had to be reinitiated because new criteria developed by NMFS showed that Canadian harvesters were taking more Puget Sound fish than the BiOp had anticipated.

But the point is moot since the U.S. and Canada have completed new talks over harvest issues, including ESA interceptions, and the two countries have agreed to settle the issue. The U.S. will provide $30 million to reduce the size of the Canadian fleet off Vancouver Island and pay for impacts to coastal economies. In return, the Canadians have promised to reduce their impacts on U.S. stocks by 30 percent.

The U.S. will also pay Alaska fishermen $7 million to reduce their impacts on listed salmon from the Lower 48 by 15 percent.

Attorney Svend Brandt-Erichsen said he hadn't yet conferred with his clients, which also included the Native Fish Society and the Clark-Skamania Flyfishers.

He agreed that the action they had wanted had already occurred, so the issue "is pretty much moot." But he said the decision was likely to help his clients during the appeal of another case that has specifically targeted salmon harvest levels in Puget Sound. His clients in that action allege that NOAA Fisheries didn't follow its own criteria when it determined that harvest levels for ESA-listed salmon stocks in Puget Sound did not jeopardize efforts to recover the fish.

In the Puget Sound litigation, federal judge Robert Lasnik sided with the feds in a Mar. 20 decision, even though they admitted that the management plan put together by Sound-area tribes and WDFW, and approved by NOAA Fisheries, was less than ideal, but managers were faced with competing mandates of upholding tribal harvests and starting recovery efforts. They felt current harvest rates wouldn't really harm recovery because so little improvement in salmon numbers would occur from few habitat actions during the short, five-year life of the plan. -B. R.

[5] BiOp Judge To Go On Tour

The federal judge in the long-lived BiOp case, James Redden, has accepted an invitation to tour salmon-enhancement projects sponsored by three Columbia River tribes.

Last April, the Warms Springs, Umatilla and Yakama tribes all agreed to support the new hydro BiOp in return for millions of BPA dollars for salmon recovery. The new agreements are designed to show the judge that the recovery projects will definitely be funded.

One of the judge's principal reasons for throwing out the 2000 BiOp was his finding that the habitat projects were not "reasonably certain to occur."

The tribes will be working with their action agency partners to develop the specifics of the tour, which is open to all parties in the new round of litigation.

Plaintiff environmental and fishing groups, Oregon and the Nez Perce tribe have already filed their motions for summary judgment. Defendant federal agencies and intervenors must have their responses filed by Oct. 24. Oral argument is scheduled for January.

The state of Oregon sent an Oct. 17 letter to Judge Redden that said it supported the tour and "were also confident that the court will not be unduly swayed in its comprehensive review of the biological opinion by the focus of this visit on particular beneficial actions." But the state also said it was apprehensive that the selection of projects for funding will be based on whether the party advancing a particular project had signed an MOA with the feds, rather than the project's merits.

Plaintiffs are arguing that the new salmon plan is really nothing new at all, that its jeopardy analysis is flawed, and habitat projects intended to boost fish runs are not a guarantee that fish numbers will improve. -B. R.

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