[1] Fall Chinook Count Climbing Fast
Cool weather and a hard rain likely played a large role in this year's early return of fall chinook to the Columbia River.
Harvest managers had hoped to keep the popular Buoy 10 fishery in the lower river open through the Labor Day weekend, but anglers had caught their 6,500-fish quota by Aug. 25 and the area was shut down for chinook, though it remained open for hatchery coho and hatchery steelhead a few days longer. High catch rates for coho made them shut it down Aug. 31, after more than 10,000 coho were hooked.
"We really haven't seen catch rates like these at Buoy 10 since the late 1980s," said Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife's Cindy LeFleur, in an Aug. 25 press release.
She noted some chinook caught in recent weeks weighed nearly 50 pounds. "We have to make sure we leave enough harvestable chinook for sport fisheries further upriver," she said.
Upriver to Bonneville Dam remained closed to chinook fishing until Sept. 1, then was opened for two weeks.
"Data from coded-wire tags indicates the concentration of upriver bright chinook in the catch is much higher than expected," LeFleur said. "That's significant, because a portion of that stock is made up of federally protected chinook bound for the Snake River, and we need to minimize interception of those fish."
On Aug. 24 nearly 15,000 chinook scrambled past Bonneville Dam. After a few days with counts dropping by two-thirds, chinook began charging past the dam once again--more than 13,000 a day. And yesterday, turned out to be the best day so far this year, when 15,301 were counted.
Nearly 148,000 had passed the dam by Sept. 3. Managers expect about 377,000 to reach the river mouth this year. The University of Washington's Inseason Forecaster on the website at Columbia Basin Research has boosted its estimate from 254,000 preseason (to Bonneville) to nearly 400,000, and says the run is about 38 percent completed.
The harvest managers cut the commercial gillnetters' last fishing period in August, because their catch had exceeded guidelines. Netters landed more than 14,000 chinook during the month. They will be allowed more fishing time in mid-September.
Tribal gillnetters in Zone 6 (above Bonneville Dam) are expected to catch about 32,000 chinook in their platform and gillnet fisheries by Sept. 6, including about 11,600 upriver brights. Managers said that would equate to a 7.1-percent harvest rate "which provides ample room for additional fishing opportunity even if the run size is less than the preseason forecast."
In a Sept. 3 TAC [technical advisory committee] update, the tribal catch was expected to reach 86,400 by Sept. 12, and included 36,000 upriver brights. TAC said that equated to a 21.8 percent harvest rate.
The tribes are allowed up to a 23-percent harvest rate on the upriver bright run size (to the river mouth), as part of the constraints on harvest of ESA-listed fall chinook heading for the Snake River.
The tribal take of B-run index steelhead through Sept. 6 was estimated at 1,490 fish, which is less than a 4-percent harvest rate, while the limit imposed by the latest harvest agreement caps the rate at 15 percent at these abundance levels. The TAC update pegged a 3,700-fish catch by Sept. 12.
But just how accurate are these preseason run estimates used to peg initial harvest rates for the inriver harvesters and sports fishermen?
The technical advisory committee to the U.S. v. Oregon process that analyzes fish returns and makes the harvest calls, released its annual report July 18, including its accounting of last year's wild fall chinook run that made it to Lower Granite Dam on the lower Snake.
The report said 2,016 adult wild fall chinook made it past the dam, from an initial estimate of run size to the river mouth of 7,600 fish. They estimated the Zone 6 harvest rate at 22 percent, based on landings--which means that more than 3,800 wild fall chinook (66 percent) didn't make it through the hydro system.
The 34 percent that did make it from Bonneville Dam to Lower Granite, according to the TAC report, is called the "conversion rate."
But according to data in the latest hydro BiOp, the Bonneville-to-Lower Granite conversion rate for fall chinook in 2007 was around 75 percent, based on the PIT-tag analysis of returning adults.
Debbie Milks of WDFW told NW Fishletter the 2007 wild fall chinook return was more like 3,033 fish, jacks included. But she said that jacks (age 2) only accounted for 11 percent of the run, while 45 percent were age 3s, 27.5 percent were age 4s, and 16 percent age 5s.
Simple math shows the WDFW estimate is 2,697 fish, or about 33 percent higher than the TAC estimate, and once again, beyond the level of the interim recovery goal for the Snake fall chinook.
CRITFC's Stuart Ellis said the TAC number is still "somewhat preliminary," and could be subject to change if all parties agree. He said the committee has been trying harder to come up with timely run estimates for the Snake fish, and the process is getting better.
In previous years, it took TAC several years to get a final count, after sorting out harvest rates and dam count data of hatchery and wild fall chinook at Lower Granite, which is complicated by fish sporting different marking schemes used to identify their origins. -Bill Rudolph
[2] Judge Says No To BiOp Science Review
Federal District Court Judge James Redden ruled Aug. 21 that the new BiOp will not get any independent scientific scrutiny before he decides whether to throw it out.
Plaintiff environmental and fishing groups are mounting a challenge to the new salmon plan and have asked for such a review. Redden spent the afternoon of Aug. 21 listening to the pros and cons of putting together an independent panel to weigh in on the salmon science used in the hydro BiOp released last May.
But attorneys for the defendants, especially Coby Howell from the Department of Justice, evidently swayed the judge. Redden had posed a few questions to all parties, including whether it was even legal to convene such a panel before he had ruled on summary judgment.
Even Earthjustice attorney Todd True admitted there was no precedent for such an action. Others pointed out that if such a course were followed, there was a good chance it would be reversed since it raised serious issues of legality.
But Redden left the door open for the possibility that a panel of independent scientists, likely picked from former ISAB members, could be used to answer narrow, technical questions during litigation over a preliminary injunction. However, federal attorneys argued the timeframe for injunction proceedings was too short to institute a panel. Besides, they felt the main issues in the new BiOp had already been vetted by the ISAB or were in the process thereof (the ISAB is expected to release its review of the new BiOp's fish transportation strategy at the Sept. 17 meeting of the Northwest Power and Conservation Council).
Plaintiffs are expected to file a motion for preliminary injunction by Oct. 1 challenging current reservoir operations--especially flood control constraints--because they want more water for fish flows.
They were joined by the state of Oregon, whose attorney, David Leith, also argued for a science review before the judge rules on summary judgment.
The Nez Perce tribes weighed in with plaintiffs in the call for more review. Tribal attorney David Cummings said the tribe was still committed to the Upper Snake BiOp agreement, but was maintaining its position as a leading advocate for breaching the four lower Snake dams.
The other three lower Columbia tribes, along with the Colvilles, have now joined defendants in support of the BiOp and said no further review was necessary. The Salish-Kootenai tribes also voiced support for the new salmon plan.
The Spokane tribe has switched sides since the litigation over the 2004 BiOp, and now supports the plaintiffs' challenge. They said it would take an independent review to ensure the BiOp used the "best, available science."
The other three Northwest states expressed support for the feds' position. Mike Grossman, from Washington AG's office, said his state biologists just "rolled their eyes" when he asked them about using an independent panel. He said the region has argued for decades about the science and the region needs a decision with NOAA as the final decision-maker. "To referee the referee is inappropriate," he said.
Representing Montana, attorney Mark Stermitz said the new BiOp is nothing like its predecessor. He said it takes an ESU-by-ESU approach, "doing what the judge wants," and its efficacy will be decided by its All-H approach [improvements to habitat, hatcheries, harvest and hydro], rather than more debate on flow and spill issues.
Near the end of the hearing, Earthjustice attorney True argued that the new BiOp was not really a product of collaboration, since debate over science issues had been elevated to a policy workgroup.
He was doing his best to counter the feds' characterization of the new salmon plan, with its hundreds of millions of dollars in extra projects for tribes to improve fish habitat, as a product of years of meetings and representing a new paradigm for parties in the region.
DOJ attorney Howell said the latest BiOp collaboration was maybe the first time that federal agencies really listened to the other sovereigns.
"We did that at your order," he told the judge.
Redden said he would deny the motion to form a science panel, though no party had actually filed one, and told the litigants to get on with their briefing over the new round of litigation.
He complimented the BiOp parties for "a remarkable effort," but cautioned that very likely there will be "holes" in the new BiOp.
However, he wondered out loud whether that would be enough to "throw the whole thing out." -B. R.
[3] La Niña Lingers, But For How Long?
La Niña is lingering, but that part of the world where El Niños are born is warming once again. In the equatorial Pacific, waters have warmed to above-average temperatures in some places, from several degrees below average last winter.
The waters off Washington and Oregon have remained 2 degrees F. below average. How long that will last is anybody's guess.
The Sept. 2 update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center says El Niño/Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the fall.
The University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group reported that 14 of 20 climate models predict neutral conditions through February.
The Climate Prediction Center also calls for a greater-than-33-percent chance of below-normal August-October temperatures for western Oregon and Washington; more than a 40-percent chance for below normal temperatures at the Oregon coast; and an equal chance of below, equal to, or above-normal temperatures for the rest of the Northwest.
As for August-October precipitation, the center calls for a greater-than-30-percent chance of below normal in many places, exceeding 40 percent in eastern Oregon and Washington and western Idaho. Southeast Idaho, northwest Oregon and western Washington are forecast to have an equal chance of below, equal to, or above-normal precipitation.
But you may want to take the CPC's forecast with a few grains of salt. According to a June report in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, cited in the Aug. 15 issue of Science, "About the only time forecasters had any success predicting precipitation was for winters with an El Niño or a La Niña." But even when they included years with an ENSO event from 1994-2004, the study authors said the CPC predicted precipitation levels only a few percent above mere chance.
The CPC did better with temperature predictions, according to the study, boosting its skill level to 13 percent from 8 percent for the decade before (100 percent is a perfect prediction). During El Niño or La Niña events, the forecasters' skill level at predicting temperatures out eight months exceeded 85 percent across the eastern United States, and was also high out to a year for temperature forecasts in the West.
With ocean temperatures 2 degrees below average for Oregon and Washington coastal waters in July, conditions for salmon have remained good, and while the La Niña lingers, conditions for forecasters' predictions may be better as well. -B. R.
[4] Power Council Finishes Draft 2008 F&W Program
The Northwest Power and Conservation Council voted Aug. 28 to release its latest draft of the region's fish and wildlife plan for public comment. Staffers were finishing up final edits and expected to have the plan posted on the council's Web site by Sept. 2.
The council voted 6-2 in favor of releasing the document, the latest step in an amendment process that began last October. Oregon members voted against releasing the document. A final version will be released after a 60-day public comment period.
"In this draft program, the Council brings together federal, state, and tribal actions to protect and enhance fish and wildlife in the Columbia River Basin," Council Chair Bill Booth said. "This will ensure that the region's significant investment in fish and wildlife is focused, coordinated, and scientifically credible."
According to an Aug. 29 Council press release, the latest plan will emphasize the implementation of fish and wildlife projects based on needs pointed out in subbasin management plans and also on recent BiOps dealing with hydro, harvest and hatchery operations, along with a commitment for the scientific review of all projects, including those included in the recent agreements between federal agencies, Indian tribes, and the states of Idaho and Montana.
Oregon members declined to support the draft because their state is entering litigation that opposes some of the dam operations outlined in the recent 2008 hydro BiOp. They also said the draft doesn't defer enough to recommendations from the region's fish and wildlife managers.
BPA and other action agencies released a Record of Decision Aug. 13 for the new hydro BiOp that included the expanded costs of the new fish and wildlife plan, beginning in 2010. BPA expects the annual cost of the direct program to rise to about $233 million from around $140 million, once costs to fund BiOp actions and fish agreements with states and tribes are included.
BPA also estimated that annual costs of power purchases and foregone revenue from the new BiOp actions would add up to $354 million a year.
Other annual costs associated with implementing the new BiOp included: $5 million for the NWPCC; $24 million for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; $41 million for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; $8 million for the Bureau of Reclamation; and $137 million in depreciation and interest on capital investments. It all adds up to $802 million a year. -B. R.
[5] Deal Reached Over Flows For Kootenai Sturgeon
All parties in litigation over the USFWS' 2006 sturgeon BiOp have reached an agreement that calls for extending interim operations at Libby Dam to help the ESA-listed sturgeon spawn in the Kootenai River below the dam. If these attempts at mimicking spring flows and reducing temperatures don't work, the Corps of Engineers will then boost spillway flows to see if that helps the sturgeon to reproduce.
Successful spawning by the wild population hasn't been documented since the mid-1970's, when the Libby project was completed.
"The Kootenai River white sturgeon is on the brink of extinction," said Noah Greenwald, science director for the Center for Biological Diversity. "This historic agreement helps give the sturgeon a shot at survival."
The Center for Biological Diversity, the Kootenai Tribe, the state of Montana, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Bonneville Power Administration submitted the agreement to the District Court of Montana on Sept. 2 for approval.
The Corps is also committed to considering modifications to the selective withdrawal system at Libby Dam to better manage temperatures of released water. With federal support, the Kootenai Tribe will begin a project to improve sturgeon habitat.
"Montana will do all it can to protect our fish and people above and below Libby Dam," said Bruce Measure, a Montana member of the Northwest Power and Conservation Council. "This agreement provides a base to help the sturgeon, protect other resident fish in the process, and allow actions and operations to proceed that local biologists know have the best chance of benefiting endangered white sturgeon. I would like to personally thank Governor Schweitzer whose support and encouragement have been instrumental in helping us get to this point." -B. R.
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