[3] Puget Sound Stocks Still Doing OK

The extremely poor forecast for California's largest salmon run doesn't mean Puget Sound stocks will tank this year. Nearly 245,000 hatchery and natural fall chinook are expected to return, with more than 59,000 of them natural. And some of the Sound's biggest runs, like on the Skagit River, are expected to be exceptionally healthy, according to the late February forecast from the Pacific Fishery Management Council.

The Skagit should produce nearly half of the Sound's natural run with a forecast of about 24,000 fish, which would compare to the 2004 and 2005 returns, two of the highest counts since the mid-1980s.

More than 35,000 hatchery chinook are expected for the Nooksack/ Samish watersheds.

Another 6,500 naturals are predicted for the Snohomish River, along with about 9,000 hatchery chinook.

South Puget Sound is expected to produce about 21,000 natural chinook and 101,000 hatchery chinook, with another 34,000 headed for Hood Canal hatcheries.

WDFW managers expect the Sound's coho runs to come in around 614,000 fish, about 16,000 less than last year's prediction, but they aren't optimistic about Columbia River coho returns, where they have predicted about 196,000 coho to show up. That's nearly 266,000 fewer than last year's run.

"We haven't seen a Columbia River coho salmon forecast this low since the late 90s," said WDFW deputy director Phil Anderson. "Poor ocean conditions that persisted off the West Coast in 2005 and 2006 appear to be the primary factor in the dramatic decline of Columbia River coho, as well as chinook originating from central Oregon and California river systems."

The poor forecast is likely to seriously constrain the recreational coho fishery off the Washington and Oregon coasts this year.

But chum salmon returns to Hood Canal and other parts of the Sound should be strong, say fish managers. They are expecting close to 2 million of them this year. -B. R.

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