[6] Upriver Columbia Fall Run Gets Severe Downgrade

This year's return of upriver bright fall chinook took a big hit last week as Columbia Basin harvest managers said the final numbers may be only about two-thirds of their preseason estimate of 185,000 (at the river mouth).

The Sept. 12 update said the upriver bright return could range from 121,000 to 151,000, 65 percent to 82 percent of the preseason forecast. On Sept. 17, they dropped it even further, to 105,000.

The latest update said about 77 percent of the brights and 89 percent of the tules have returned.

So far, about 120,000 total fall chinook have made it past Bonneville Dam, only about one-third of the 10-year average. But up the lower Snake, at Lower Granite Dam, the fall count was close to 5,000 fish, about three-fourths the 10-year average.

On Sept. 14, The University of Washington's in-season forecaster was predicting a 131,000-fish return to Bonneville, far below the 231,000-fish preseason prediction based on jack counts. The U.W. model estimated that about 80 percent of the run had passed the dam. By Sept. 19, it estimated that 93 percent of the run had passed Bonneville Dam and lowered the size to 128,600 chinook.

Recreational anglers in the lower river's Buoy 10 fishery caught about 4,000 chinook, only a few hundred shy of preseason expectations, and another 4,300 chinook during the August fishery in the lower river. Managers continued the lower river sport fishery until Sept. 19, when about 12,000 chinook were expected to have been caught by anglers (to Hwy 395 bridge), including 4,460 upriver brights and 3,550 lower river hatchery chinook

Tribal commercial fishers had a three-and-half day opening in Zone 6 above Bonneville Dam last week and were planning on getting another four and a half days this week. Their projected total catch was nearly 30,000 chinook, with about half being upriver brights. They were also expected to harvest 13,480 steelhead, including more than 600 ESA-listed 'B' run steelhead, heading for Idaho.

Commercial non-Indian gillnetters in the lower Columbia have caught about 8,800 chinook, including 701 lower river hatchery fish, 1,898 upriver brights, and another 4,800 chinook caught in select area fisheries outside the mainstem. -B. R.

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