[1] BPA Working On "Secret" Drawdown Deal With Oregon
The Bonneville Power Administration and the state of Oregon are reportedly working on a deal to speed up fish passage this spring by dropping the elevation of the John Day Pool, the biggest reservoir in the lower Columbia.
In return, Oregon would support the upcoming hydro BiOp that should be completed by federal agencies by the end of July, sources said.
Some even say the drawdown strategy is a "deal breaker," and unless it happens, Oregon will walk away from a new BiOp, likely followed by lower Columbia tribes.
Mike Carrier, Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski's natural resource policy director, said he couldn't talk specifically about the drawdown issue, citing confidentiality issues over the BiOp remand.
"But I will say, with regard to all the hydro measures that could be included in a proposed action to be evaluated in the next biological opinion, Oregon continues to advocate that the federal agencies look hard at all the possible measures, including flow and spill measures and reservoir operations that would increase the survival of fish. We need to press them to evaluate those and provide us good justification as to why they would be included in a proposed action," Carrier said.
A new analysis of potential drawdown benefits used by Oregon for spring chinook estimates a 2-percent to nearly 6-percent improvement in the smolt-to-adult return rate on the inriver migrating component of the run.
However, the COMPASS model used by remand participants to estimate fish survivals through different BiOp hydro scenarios came up with a 0.33-percent to 2.7-percent benefit.
Those familiar with the models say Oregon is using a tool developed by IDFG biologist Charlie Petrosky, which has a factor for "latent mortality" that bumps up the SAR compared to the COMPASS model.
One big factor that seems to be missing from Oregon's analysis is that most ESA-listed spring chinook and steelhead from the Snake are barged through the hydrosystem and don't swim through John Day Pool at all (92 percent of the springers were transported in 2005, and 87 percent in 2004, according to the Fish Passage Center).
But Upper-Columbia-listed spring chinook and steelhead are not barged at all, and should gain more benefit from the strategy, if any exists.
However, earlier studies showed even fewer benefits to fish, or actual declines, although they were conducted when PIT-tag data were skimpy. It was reported that COMPASS shows benefits to spring chinook because fish would reach the estuary a little earlier than otherwise, not because of any benefit from a flow/survival relationship.
When irrigators got wind of the possibility that the John Day drawdown issue might be back on the table, they fired off letters to both federal agencies and the Oregon governor's office expressing their displeasure with the idea.
"This is chronically foolish," said Darryl Olsen, representing the Columbia-Snake Irrigators Association. He told NW Fishletter that it would cost millions to modify the 21 or so large pumps used by irrigators to water more than 150,000 acres on both sides of the Columbia, with unproven benefits to fish.
"We are told the analysis claims that shortening juvenile salmon residence times in the reservoirs by a few hours will result in dramatic increases in adult returns of endangered spring chinook of up to 5.79 percent. ODFW refuses to release the proposal (analysis?) claiming that because the state of Oregon has determined to advance its policy objectives with respect to dam operations, in private settlement negotiations under the auspices of Judge Redden, it may operate in secret," Olsen said in his letter to Gov. Kulongoski.
Olsen said his group was confident that if the proposal were released, "its shortcomings would be easily demonstrated," since similar prior efforts have ignored compensatory mortality downstream, increased predator concentrations, and interference with dam passage in claiming asserted benefits, "along with discredited notions of a causal relationship between river flow and salmon survival in the John Day Pool."
Others said the drawdown could negatively affect fish survival at the dam because fish screens would probably not operate as effectively, and would send more smolts through turbines unless spill was boosted.
Steve Eldrige, general manager of the Hermiston, Oregon-based Umatilla Electric Co-op, was also astonished about the latest drawdown proposal. When drawdowns at McNary and John Day Pools were proposed 15 years ago, he said, a study found that "there was one pump station specifically that cost $5 million in and of itself to modify."
In addition, annual operating costs to pump water would go up significantly. "And for what?" he asked. The Corps couldn't establish any benefits for migrating salmon, but the drawdown would hurt resident fish and wildlife, Eldridge said.
"Finally," he said, "it puts the intakes in the navigation channel, which we think would be problematic for barge traffic."
Drawing down the pool from the normal operating level of 267 feet or the minimum irrigation level (262.5) to minimum operating pool (MOP; elevation 257) would leave most pump intakes about 5.5 feet above the level of the pool. In its 1994 evaluation, the Corps said MOP operation at John Day would also "likely require" modification to fish ladders at the dam and to ladder entrances at McNary Dam.
The Corps said a MOP operation would also affect more than 8,000-acres of shallow-water habitat used by resident fish and wildlife, and could block the mouth of the Umatilla River to migrating adult salmon.
The 1994 analysis found that water-particle travel time (WPTT) through the reservoir would be reduced by about 12 percent to 15 percent, but the net change from Lower Granite to Bonneville was only in the 2-5 percent range in the spring.
The Corps estimated that WPTT would be reduced by about one-half day over the 15-day trip a water molecule took to get from Lower Granite to Bonneville Dam. But passage modeling by the 1994 University of Washington CRiSP model estimated that spring chinook survival would actually decrease by 2 percent through the reservoir at MOP.
During the latest round of litigation over the 2004 BiOp, Oregon intervened on the side of plaintiff environmental and fishing groups and supported a John Day MOP operation for the summer in 2005, when plaintiffs called for more spill and flows throughout the hydro system.
Corps of Engineers' biologist Dave Ponganis pointed out impacts of a MOP operation at John Day in a declaration filed at the time. Noting that his information was based on the Corps' 1994 report, he said the water supply at fish ladders would have to be modified, but bypass system passage efficiencies "would be expected to result in more juveniles passing the dam through the turbines."
Sources said that the agreement for the MOP operation could be announced soon, and may come in the form of a "study" that would analyze results from the changes.
But it would be difficult to see any benefits unless the dam modifications are completed first. In 1994, those costs were estimated at $65 million, along with $10 million to modify pumps. Adding inflation and lost hydro puts the potential tab in the $185-million range, according to sources.
Irrigator spokesman Olsen promised a full-scale war in the courts over tribal harvest in the Columbia River if the John Day operation is OK'd.
In his letter to Gov. Kulongoski, Olsen said, "It is also disturbing to see Oregon's lack of understanding surrounding the fragile political dynamics of the Columbia River system, relative to Tribal fisheries and their empirically measurable impacts to ESA-listed stocks. An attempt by Oregon to establish a John Day Pool drawdown will cast greater light on the impacts of the Columbia River fisheries and quickly lead to a much broader litigation front, well beyond the existing BiOp remand parameters."
But are irrigators out in the cold all by themselves over this issue? Not according to Olsen, who said he had been told by Washington Department of Ecology staffers that the state would not support a John Day drawdown.
Bob Nichols, Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire's chief salmon policy advisor, did not return calls by press time. -Bill Rudolph
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