[6] El Niño Still Growing

The temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are growing, said the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, in a Dec. 7 El Niño update. They now expect the warming phenomena to last through next May, peaking in December and January.

Despite record rainfall in much of the Northwest last month, many parts of the region should still expect a warmer and drier-than average period between January and March.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported that in the latest survey of a dozen international computer models, five of the twelve models predict warm conditions, consistent with an El Niño event, continuing until April 2007, with only two of these showing El Niño conditions persisting until July 2007. Their own model shows a steady decline in warm conditions.

A series of oceanic heat waves have moved eastward toward South America. The largest was expected to reach the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru by mid-December where substantial warming of coastal waters is expected.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean off Washington, water temperatures are about average, with a large area off central Oregon that is a degree or two F below average for this time of year.

On Nov. 16, the Climate Prediction Center called the El Niño event "on the border between weak and moderate--since the coupling of the unusually warm SSTs [sea surface temperatures] near the date line with the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific has not yet become fully established. This coupling is expected to occur during the next month or so."

On Dec. 6, the Aussies said this coupling had occurred.

"The 2006/07 El Niño is entering its mature phase, when the Pacific ocean temperatures, winds and cloud patterns reinforce each other. Computer model guidance continues to suggest that Pacific Ocean temperatures, and hence the El Niño, may peak around January or February 2007. This timing would be consistent with the breakdown of past El Niño events."

On Dec. 20, the Australians said there were a few signs the event had already started to weaken.-B. R.

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