[4] 2006 Fish Forecasts Reflect Changes In Ocean Conditions

Columbia Basin fish prognosticators have warmed up their crystal ball for the coming season and are calling for more of the same moderately successful chinook runs as appeared in 2005. Only this time, they don't expect to be blind-sided by the 2005 spring run that came in at about 107,000 fish, 42 percent of what they expected to show. For the coming year, they expect about 88,000 springers.

Very warm ocean conditions off the Northwest Coast and the lack of upwelling likely played a large role in reducing ocean productivity. The good news is that oceanographers now say that the ocean may have turned around once again as it did in 1999. Colder water seems to be heading north, which should improve returns, maybe for several years in a row. University of Washington climate researcher Nate Mantua said the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index has gone negative for the third month in a row, which shows a definite trend toward improving conditions for salmon off our coast.

The Snake River spring/summer component is expected to make up about half of the overall run at 46,000 fish. More than 51,000 were counted in 2005, but that was way short of the 128,000 prediction as well. The wild part of the Snake run is estimated at 14,600 fish, about 1,500 fish higher than this year's number.

The upper Columbia spring chinook component is expected be made up of 12,600 chinook, down from the 19,700 that the harvest managers estimated to have actually appeared. The wild part of the run is only predicted at 1,600 fish in 2006, down from the 2,500 that showed.

Summer chinook should appear in somewhat smaller numbers than last year's 60,000 fish, which the managers had pegged nearly perfectly in their pre-season prediction.

As for sockeye, managers expect about 31,000 fish, less than half of this year's return, and they are only counting on 21 Snake River sockeye to enter the Columbia next summer, the same number that they estimated made it back this year.

Fall chinook numbers may be down too from previous high returns as already seen in 2005 numbers. Managers said 2006 is likely to produce less fall chinook than this year's 561,000 return, and could drop below 500,000 fish.

Jack counts of upriver brights in 2005 were the lowest since 1994 (Jacks are precocious males that return a year ahead of the main part of the run). The 2006 return is expected to be less than the nearly 300,000 upriver brights that came back in 2005. The managers say preliminary estimates may put the run size below the 200,000-fish mark. Biologists conducting aerial surveys in the Hanford Reach in October and November found nearly 7,900 salmon redds were dug by spawners this past fall, nearly as high as last year's 8,500 redds.

Bonneville Pool hatchery returns are expected to be less than this year's 102,000 fish, since the jack count for the stock is the lowest since 1997.

Lower Columbia hatchery fish are expected to return at less than 2005's 70,000 number, but the wild stock may be similar to this year's 20,000 fish return.

Mid-Columbia brights should return in numbers close to this year's count of 73,000 fish.

Coho returns are expected to follow close to 2005's return. Managers said the jack returns are similar to 2004 numbers, when the adult return came in around 300,000 fish. -B. R.

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