[4] Enviros' Spill And Flow Strategy Could Add Hundreds Of Millions In Power Costs

A preliminary review of a far-reaching proposal by environmental and fishing groups to boost spill and flows in the Columbia River says it would have cost $400 million if implemented this year, according to an analysis released yesterday by the Northwest Power and Conservation Council. And it might kill a lot more chinook in the Hanford Reach than current operations by de-watering salmon redds ten times as often. The proposal is now before BiOp judge James Redden as the plaintiffs' recipe for interim dam operations.

Council senior staffer John Fazio told members that costs would range between $125 million and $560 million, depending on the water year. He said his analysis assumed that the power market would be large enough to absorb the expected changes in generation, which may not be valid under some conditions.

He also said the proposal would increase the probability of power emergencies, with the loss-of-load probability [LOLP] at 7.5 percent, well above the current value near zero and the historical 5-percent standard used by the Council. Fazio said a more liberal allowance for emergency operations would be necessary to restore the LOLP to an acceptable level, which means some reservoirs may not be filled to required elevations by early April.

The analysis noted that the proposed injunction also calls for changes in the operation of Canadian reservoirs, which means the US side would have to send about 800 average megawatts north of the border as compensation, a factor not added to the study.

"Changing the hydro generation pattern, as called for in the proposed operation," says the Council's Nov. 17 memo on the analysis, "would put the power supply into a deficit situation over winter months."

During the summer, when the hydro system is usually in a surplus mode, energy production in July and August would be lower if the injunction is granted, because it calls for higher spill requirements than current BiOp operations. But if fish and wildlife operations were curtailed during power emergencies, then summer LOLP would not likely be affected.

Fazio said an important assumption in his analysis is that the power market will be able to supply the energy needs of the region during deficit months-- January, February, April, July, and the last half of August. The worst hit would come in January, when the change in generation would be the highest, a deficit of about 4,600 mw-months, enough energy to supply four Seattles for a month, that could cost $348 million to replace.

According to the analysis, Columbia river flows would be lower than average in April if the injunction were granted, but more than 44,000 cfs above average in May to 313,000 cfs (at McNary); 17,000 cfs above the 317,000 cfs average in June. Little change would be noticed in July, while the first half of August would see a boost in flows of nearly 18,000 cfs above the 174,000 cfs average, but the second half of August would see a reduction of about 2,600 cfs.

Flows on the lower Snake would increase from April through July, but go down in August.

Since some reservoirs would end up at lower elevations under the injunction, carryover effects would have to be dealt with the following year. Grand Coulee would end up about 10 feet lower than under current operations, and Idaho's Dworshak would end up about six feet below the current end-of-August elevation.

The injunctive changes could have profound effects on fish, according to the Council's analysis, which estimated that chinook redds in the Vernita Bar area of the Hanford Reach would be de-watered in 30 out of 50 years, while under the current BiOp, analysts expect them to be de-watered in only 3 out of every 50 years. Chum redds below Bonneville would get a little more water because of the seasonal shifting of hydro generation under the injunction. -B. R.

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