[4] Snohomish Fish Plan Moves Forward, But Harvest Issues Remain
The 38-person forum created for recovering salmon in the Snohomish Basin north of Seattle voted unanimously last week to support a $134 million, 10-year effort to improve habitat for the benefit of ESA-listed chinook and bull trout. But the continuing interception of Puget Sound stocks by Canadian fishermen may put the ambitious effort at risk.
State fishery officials say the overall harvest of Snohomish basin chinook will be more than anticipated, mainly due to increased fishing by Canadians. After several years of reduced catches out of concern for their own weak fish stocks, the Canadians are back to catching their limits allowed under the salmon treaty signed by both nations.
Pat Patillo, a biologist with WDFW, told NW Fishletter that the Snohomish plan calls for a maximum exploitation rate (ER) of that watershed's chinook populations of 24 percent, but the stepped-up Canadian harvest will likely boost the overall ER to about 33 percent this year. With U.S. fishers accounting for about half the catch, it will take more reductions on the U.S. side to stay within the guidelines of the Snohomish plan.
The Snohomish plan says annual harvest rates below 24 percent will help fish numbers increase to recovery targets if fresh water and estuary habitat is improved. In the 1970s, nearly 80 percent of the returning fish were caught every year.
The plan's goals are pretty much the same as those outlined in a draft released last fall, with recovery actions hoping to improve fish numbers enough to reach 80 percent of the estimated historical chinook population--20,000 to 50,000 fish.
In 2003, about 5,500 chinook returned to the Basin. In 2002, about 7,200 fish showed up. In 2001, nearly 8,200 chinook spawned in the system, about twice the 1987-1998 average.
The plan calls for restoring a mile of shoreline and 1,200 acres of tidal marshlands, fixing 11 miles of riverbanks, and adding to the 236 miles of intact banks in the basin. It also suggests adding a couple hundred acres of riparian habitat to the 6,000 acres already designated as such. Capital costs of $82 million would make up the largest part of the 10-year budget, with another $31 million designated to pay for land acquisitions and $23 million allotted to run the programs.
The Snohomish plan is just part of an overall Puget Sound recovery plan that's expected to be finalized by the end of the month and rolled out for public comment by early fall. However, other chinook stocks in the Sound face the same dilemma over harvest.
In the Skagit watershed, where a recent agreement was signed by both tribal and agricultural groups to restore runs, harvest interception by Canadians plays an even larger role. WDFW's Patillo pointed out that about 40 percent of returning Skagit River chinook are expected to be harvested this season, with about 29 percent of them caught in Canada.
About 26 percent of the Stillaguamish River chinook are expected to be caught, with Canadians accounting for about half the harvest. A $44-million, 10-year plan was just announced for the Stilly, with an escapement goal of 6,000 spawners. The average spawning escapement for the past eight years has been about 1,300 chinook.
As for the Nooksack stock, Canadians are expected to catch about 24 percent of the stock, while U.S. fishers only land about 5 percent. The ER goal for restoring the Nooksack stock is 7 percent.
Listed chinook stocks in the Seattle-Tacoma area will also face major harvest restrictions to improve their chances of recovery. The Lake Washington chinook run that returns to the Cedar River is expected to get whacked at about a 36 percent rate this year, split about evenly between U.S. and Canadian fishers. The management goal for that stock calls for only 15 percent (pre-terminal) ER on the U.S. side.
It could be years before the Canadians back off. Future negotiations over southern interceptions are not scheduled until 2008 and the U.S. is running out of bargaining chips. In 1999, the treaty was re-negotiated with the U.S. reducing impacts on Fraser River sockeye in return for reduced Canadian effort on U.S. chinook and coho and a mutual call to improve fish populations by both countries.
But after Puget Sound chinook were listed for ESA protection in 1999, the treaty fishing regimes were still pegged too high to recover the Washington stocks, according to the latest analyses by recovery planners. However, questions still remain about just how accurate the modeling effort is that has guided efforts like the Snohomish plan. The plan itself reports that "NOAA Fisheries recommends using the results with caution, because while an important tool to aid decision-making, they do not provide an absolute answer." -B. R.
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