[1] OCEAN BIGGEST SALMON ABUNDANCE DRIVER?

Scientists and policymakers gathered in Portland July 1 to hear about the ocean's effects on salmon populations and the implications for the Power Planning Council's Fish and Wildlife Program.

The gathering included well-respected Canadian biologist Richard Beamish. "Overall," Beamish said, "we've been good managers of salmon." But he said managers got off track in the 1970s and 1980s by focusing too much on assessment. Now, as fish populations have declined over the last decade, most agency focus is on wild salmon, he said.

"Really, we never were in charge in the first place," he said, "and we must recognize a large amount of uncertainty and doubt about what is really going on."

Beamish, who works out of the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans' Pacific Biological Laboratory in Nanaimo, BC, said looking at the ocean has created a new way of thinking in fishery science--"changes in abundance can occur for natural reasons"--and he cited evidence of a new ocean climate regime that could have positive effects on Northwest salmon populations.

Beamish pointed to movement of high pressure patterns in the Arctic, a more intense Aleutian low pressure area, more westerly winds, and a huge increase in sea ice last winter in the Bering Sea as signals of a change that could spell another 20 years of wetter, colder weather for the Northwest. "There's little doubt that something's changed."

Beamish said great changes are evident in the western Pacific as well. He said the sea off Russia's Northeast coast was nearly completely covered by ice this past winter, and the cold temperatures have brought back herring populations but led to a decline in chum salmon stocks. There may be less salmon, he said, but they are returning to spawn younger and healthier than before.

He looked at historical records for evidence of previous declines and mentioned a correlation between Alaska and Canadian fish returns from the 1820s. Records from the Hudson's Bay Company noted that Indians on the Fraser River at that time were too sickly to be hired; they were starving because sockeye returns were so poor.

Examination of a nitrogen isotope in sediments in a Kodiak Island lake showed a similar decline in fish stocks in the 1820s. The nitrogen isotope is only picked up by fish in the ocean and left in the freshwater habitat after spawning, serving as a marker for the size of fish runs that go back hundreds on years, a record that shows huge variability in abundance.

Beamish said the climate regime has oscillated between warmer, drier periods and cooler, wetter periods that average about 20 years long. He thinks things moved back into a wet phase in 1996. "Does that mean we have to change how we manage salmon?" Beamish asked.

He said a priority should be protection of freshwater habitat--to protect the "evolvability" of salmon, which will enable them to endure "extreme" climate events that are bound to occur over the next 100 years.

Though Beamish said it looks like the earth is warming, there is good evidence for a natural component to the phenomenon. And even if temperatures don't reach the 3 degrees C. increase that some predict by 2050, he said to expect extreme changes in salmon habitat on the West Coast.

Oregon State climatologist George Taylor agreed that the climate has shifted gears. "I'll stick my neck out. I think the regime [shift] occurred about four years ago." He pointed to other signals, like changes in ocean currents, and said salmon could benefit from some "double barrel" effects if onshore and offshore fish habitats improve at the same time with a cooler, wetter climate.

Taylor isn't much of a global warming fan, either. "Long term, it looks like we're heading for an Ice Age," he explained, and said the hot side of this cycle may have peaked about 2,000 years ago. He showed a graph that linked spring chinook abundance to the cold, wet cycles.

Researcher Dan Bottom from Oregon State University said a conference such as this would not have occurred five years ago. The emphasis on the importance of ocean effects is a new approach to looking at fish and their habitat.

Through the 1920s, Bottom said, salmon biologists considered the ocean "irrelevant." From then through the 1970s, it became a "benign" presence; through the 1980s and 1990s, biologists characterized it as "dynamic." From there, Bottom said, the next step may be to consider the ocean and its influence on salmon abundance "as paramount."

Bottom said estuary conditions are important because "nearshore" conditions for fish during their first week in the ocean may be critical to their survival. He said it is important to improve established habitats that support juvenile salmon to restore and maintain the life-history diversity of the stocks.

At an afternoon panel discussion with the scientists, NMFS policymaker Donna Darm asked if the Columbia system has been overloaded with hatchery fish--"Have we harmed wild fish?"

Beamish said yes, noting that the region should probably adjust hatchery production to predictions of ocean conditions.

Darm suggested "there's not a lot we can do about the ocean but we can in the estuary," noting a real return in improved habitat would come from the region's investment in such a strategy.

Climatologist Taylor summed up the state of affairs at the end of the day. "We're dealing with a complex world we don't know much about." A few days after Taylor made his remarks, the sockeye run in Alaska's Bristol Bay overwhelmed processors and fish managers were boosting their forecast to a 40-million fish run, reversing trends in the Bay over the past two seasons when salmon returns were only about half as strong as predicted. Some biologists and climatologists have said that declines in Alaska production could mean that stocks in Washington and Oregon would improve-a trend that has been seen before. What biologists know for sure this year is the unmistakable signal from the Columbia River that spring/summer salmon runs are improving. The chinook jack returns at Bonneville Dam remain the highest (11,684) since biologists began keeping track of them in the 1970s. Counts past Lower Granite Dam on the lower Snake are amazingly good as well, with 3,663 counted as of July 11, which is about 12 times more than 1998. Strong jack returns usually signal strong adult returns the following year or two, because jacks are sexually precocious males which return after only one year in the ocean.

A small media frenzy passed through Portland last week after biologist Phil Mundy and Trout Unlimited released a report (can be downloaded from TU's Web site) that says Snake River spring chinook will be functionally extinct by 2017. Mundy analyzed trends in spring spawner numbers returning to certain Idaho and Oregon streams. "Unless current conditions change for the better," said Mundy's report, "it is expected that only the strongest of the 13 demes studied will have spawners after 2023." Mundy, an independent fisheries consultant, has served on the independent science panel that works with the Power Planning Council and NMFS.

At a meeting in Seattle with federal scientists last week, when asked what he thought of the high jack counts this year, Mundy answered with a "No comment." -Bill Rudolph

[2] POWER COUNCIL TAKES TERN PROBLEM TO HEART

Members of the Power Planning Council turned their attention toward the bird predation problem in the Columbia estuary and got a first-hand lesson about the nesting instinct. Meeting June 30 in Astoria--just a few miles down the river from Rice Island, where the largest colony of Caspian terns in the world is now ensconced--the group heard from scientists about a pilot project designed to move the birds downriver to another location, a place where availability of a more varied diet would reduce the birds' intake of juvenile salmon, especially ESA-listed varieties. Research over the past two years has shown the terns consume up to 25 percent of the 100 million salmon and steelhead smolts that make it to the estuary.

Researcher Dan Roby of Oregon State University said the pilot project successfully lured about 1,000 pairs of terns to a new nesting area at East Sand Island by using bird decoys and loudspeakers playing what he called "Caspian Terns' Greatest Hits." After the birds were relocated, Roby said their diet contained only 55 percent juvenile salmonids, instead of the 85 percent consumed further upriver.

Though an attempt was made to reduce the sandy seven-acre Rice Island nesting area by fencing off large spaces (the birds like to nest in open, visually unobstructed areas) and planting winter wheat, about 7,000 pairs of terns jammed into one single acre and began to lay eggs on April 30. Roby said the nesting density is about three times higher then ever observed there before.

By radio-tagging some terns from the new nesting spot at East Sand Island, researchers found the birds ranging into nearby marine areas, including up the Washington coast as far as Willapa Bay.

Roby said the region's next task is to come up with tentative proposals for next year's program, including plans for re-locating the birds to other places like Willapa and Grays Harbor.

Power Council member Tom Karier questioned whether re-locating birds would cause problems for salmon in other places.

Carol Schuler of the USFWS said her agency did not support moving all the terns from the Columbia estuary, reminding the Council that there is a natural salmon mortality through predation that is "normal to the system." But Roby said the pilot project begun on East Sand Island could be used as a step towards moving the birds out of the estuary.

In other business, the Council heard from the Independent Scientific Review Panel, which has just completed its evaluation of all the proposals for next year's fish and wildlife program. The group has recommended not funding some large hatchery projects, including the Nez Perce' $20 million project on the Clearwater River. Some Council members expressed concern about how to deal with the hatchery funding issue, but ISRP member Rick Williams said there's a lack of scientific evidence that such large-scale supplementation efforts really work.

Brian Allee of the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Authority said his members will respond "technically" to the ISRP's concerns and develop responses. The ISRP recommended against funding about $30 million of the $66 million in hatchery and other supplementation efforts OK'd by CBFWA fish managers in their earlier review of the proposals in next year's fish and wildlife program. He called the effort "applying triage" to next year's budget. -B. R.

[3] BACK TO THE FUTURE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION TEAM

Policymakers on the Implementation Team met last week in Portland to discuss everything from the Framework to more flows for fall chinook and the future of the PATH Process (Plan for Analyzing and Testing Hypotheses).

Plagued with a phone line that was mostly on the fritz, the day-long session was notable for at least one thing--the gumption of salmon policy wonks. One remark from BPA representative Dan Daley was especially notable. He told the group that the power agency would decline to recommend continued funding for the PATH process, the regional group of salmon modelers that has created a ponderous decision analysis process for salmon recovery strategies and whose value is still hotly debated throughout the basin.

A recent review by the Power Planning Council's Independent Scientific Review Panel recommended that PATH funding for next year--nearly $2 million that supported analysis by consultants and state agencies--be ended.

PATH reported last year that its analysis of spring chinook stocks showed the fish had a much better chance of recovery if the lower Snake dams were breached. But some PATH participants said the analysis was littered with questionable assumptions and shaky data. And two of the four independent reviewers of the results has serious doubts about the analysis as well. One even said he didn't trust the optimistic prognostications about dam breaching.

But some IT members, like Oregon Fish and Wildlife's Tony Nigro, supported the regional effort, noting that recent NMFS efforts to go on its own with a new salmon recovery modeling exercise will "put the rest of us in a reactive mode." He said PATH's main virtue was as a collaborative process that got regional scientists around the same table. Through PATH, Nigro said, "We've reached a lot more common ground than uncommon ground."

But Corps of Engineers spokesman Doug Arndt said as long as there are "two drill teams" in PATH, the results will only continue the regional debate about salmon recovery strategies. Arndt was referring to the two main camps in PATH, based around competing juvenile passage models, and the different results from each group--one, based on the states' and tribes FLUSH model, supports dam removal on the lower Snake; the other, the BPA/UW CRiSP model, maintains that status quo operations, including fish barging, would be nearly as effective at recovering endangered fish runs.

The discussion on ISRP recommendations in general was another topic. Brian Allee of the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Authority said his group would be working constructively with the Power Planning Council to resolve differences between his group's fish and wildlife funding recommendations and the ISRP review, which also came down hard on funding for new hatcheries and other fish supplementation efforts in the basin.

The Power Council's new fish and wildlife head, Bob Lohn, reminded the group that BPA, which foots the $127 million bill for annual fish programs, is not bound by project funding ecommendations from either body. But he was notably conciliatory, reminding IT members that most of next year's proposals were OK'd by both groups, and that others in question would likely pass ISRP muster once the reviewers received the necessary information. Lohn said the ISRP was charged with making scientific judgments, but judging risks of certain strategies was a policy call that must be made by the Power Council.

PATH facilitator Dave Marmorek stumped for continued participation, noting that the group could revise FY 2000 proposals based on feedback. He proposed that PATH members could serve as a good source for offering strategic levels of advice in the development of monitoring and evaluation of recovery strategies. In a letter to IT members, the PATH planning group said it "is committed to rethinking and reshaping PATH, and if necessary its budget. We are even committed to finding a new acronym more consistent with a revised mission!"

PATH wasn't the only group searching for a new identity. More soul searching was in evidence as IT members began discussion of the IT's future mission. One potential role would be to develop and coordinate ESA-related studies on the mainstem, but talk has barely begun. The IT is a creature of the 1995 BiOp, formed to serve as a monthly meeting for policymakers to decide issues unresolved by fish managers at the weekly Technical Management Team level where ongoing river operations are managed. -B. R.

[4] CLEAN WATER ACT SUIT HEATS UP A NOTCH

The lawsuit filed by environmental and fishing groups against the Corps of Engineers last March has drawn regional economic interests into the ring. Some are filing motions to intervene in the case. The suit charges that the Corps' actions in operating the four lower Snake dams violate terms of the Clean Water Act, its implementing regulations and the Administrative Procedure Act, mainly over issues of water temperatures and dissolved gas standards that hurt fish.

Potlatch Corporation of Lewiston, Idaho, which owns 600,000 acres of timberlands in Idaho, filed a motion to intervene last month. Potlatch lawyers explained the plaintiffs' strategy this way: "Plaintiffs clearly are dissatisfied with the Corps of Engineers' operation of the dams, the transportation system created by those dams and the impact of the dams on threatened and endangered salmon...While the complaint does not specifically request the Corps to operate the dams in any particular way, it is no secret that the plaintiffs really seek an order requiring the Corps to remove or substantially modify operations at each of these dams."

The company's motion says if the suit is successful, Potlatch's ability to do business in the Northwest will be "significantly threatened" because it will end the barge transportation system the company uses to move both raw materials and finished products. The motion also mentions that lowering the river would impair Potlatch's ability to use river water and could eliminate use of its wastewater discharge diffuser. The company said it also owns several private dams that could be adversely affected if plaintiffs are successful.

The Northwest Pulp and Paper Association joined the motion in an affidavit that pointed out other companies directly affected by this lawsuit include Boise Cascade, Fort James Corporation, Longview Fibre, and Weyerhaeuser.

Other motions to intervene have been filed by the Columbia River Alliance, a group of river-oriented business interests; the Inland Ports and Navigation Group, made up of several ports along the Snake and Columbia Rivers, including Lewiston; as well as the Shaver Transportation Group.

Attorney Kristin Boyles of the Earthjustice Legal Defense Fund said plaintiffs oppose the intervenor motions because the business groups have neither the right to intervene, "nor are they entitled to permissive intervention," as the group's latest motion, filed on June 28, states.

But Boyles said last week that even though her group "officially" opposes the business's motions, if the economic interests work together, plaintiffs wouldn't oppose a single motion, where the corporate interests could coordinate and file joint documents. "This case is going to be flooded with paperwork," she said. She thought the court should rule on the motions within another month.

The July 1 motion by Earthjustice said, in part, "...if the Court allows movants to intervene, it could 'open the floodgates' to all persons who claim some kind of indirect or tangential economic interest in the existing configuration of the lower Snake River and the operation of the four dams--a potentially vast number of entities and individuals across several states. This would make the litigation cumbersome and unmanageable and would unduly delay resolution of the merits."

Government lawyers have already filed a motion to move the case to federal judge Malcolm Marsh's Portland courtroom because the issues are "intricately related" to other litigation before Judge Marsh. The June 17 motion pointed out that Marsh has already addressed claims concerning spill, gas and temperature in his American Rivers II opinion. Many of the same environmental and fishing groups represented in the current complaint lost that case, which took issue with many of the elements in the 1995 BiOp. They ultimately appealed and lost again in the Ninth Circuit Court. -B. R.

[5] BPA'S JOHANSEN SPEAKS OUT

The biggest problem BPA faces is the potential that divisiveness on regional issues will create an opening for "outside interests to come in and take the benefits of the federal system out of the region," says administrator Judi Johansen.

In a recent interview marking the end of her first year as BPA Administrator, Johansen cited Oregon governor John Kitzhaber's recent comments on the federal Columbia River power system to the Northwest Power Planning Council. "He said if we don't get our act together we will lose it. and he is right on. The region has to act in a self-enlightened way, meaning there must be compromise and trade-offs." She said the Northwest must work over the long term to fend off attacks from outside to protect the region's resources--"not just federal power and transmission benefits, but the river and how it is used.

"People are so rigidified on issues," Johansen lamented. "Just look at the debate" on BPA's recent offer to the DSIs--how strong a negative reaction there was to doing something that after all is "not nearly" what the big industrials wanted. "Look at the fish debate," she continued. "People are definitely dug into their foxholes on that issue. You can pick a whole list of issues."

One approach to securing against a take-over from outside interests is the "regionalization" concept that has been floating around. According to some, regionalization could mean the four PNW states buying out BPA to make it a four-state public agency.

Johansen, who did not advocate a particular approach, said regionalization--which she prefers to refer to as "regional self-determination" over the use of the NW's natural resources and allocation of power benefits--is something that must be approached through the leadership of the governors, tribes and other key stakeholders. She said she neither advocates nor hopes for a "regional consensus" on regionalization. "That's not worth the effort." The key is achieving agreement "among a critical mass of the people who lead the region."

Overall, Johansen said she feels good about the progress made on a number of issues. Besides getting the rate case going, subscription will soon be well under way. She is pleased with BPA's approach to separation of its transmission and generation sides, believing the agency has lived up to the goal of making BPA's system "an open freeway for wholesale power markets."

Johansen also cited cost cutting as an accomplishment. "We will have new staffing plans soon," she said. "In the rate case, we'll have new budget targets. You'll see we are living up to our commitments to the Cost Review targets. We are not going to mimic the Cost Review in every detail, but we are going to hit the $130 million target through cost savings and efficiency improvements."

But the Cost Review went too far in some areas, she added. "The Corps and BuRec budgets are good examples. If we cut them to the levels they recommended, we cut our seed coat." The two agencies have already committed to significant cost savings, she asserted.

Johansen complimented WNP-2 management on its cost cutting efforts, but said she still wants Energy Northwest (formerly WPPSS) "to come up with the cost saving levels" they talked about during the Cost Review.

Besides the rate case, Johansen said her near term goals include making progress on the "unified fish plan" and coming to closure on BPA's role in the RTO by the end of the calendar year. She said there are also a number of important internal projects, including implementation of enterprise software and enhancements to the agency's capitol budgeting process.

For the long term, the administrator said she wants to make sure the region takes advantage of the period of stability that will settle in once subscription is in place and "we can focus on how we retain the value of the federal power system for the region."

As for the fish plan, Johansen is angling for something in which a "critical mass of stakeholders agree on how to proceed on a framework" with a shelf life of 10 years funding priorities and a balance between resident and anadromous fish. She said river governance is a component of such a plan, and that while BPA "has a dog in that fight, we are not wedded to a particular model." Working out a fish governance model is "more in the governors' court." -Ben Tansey

[6] NORTHWEST GOVS CALL FOR ANNUAL BPA F&W ASSESSMENT

The four Northwest governors have sent a letter to the Power Planning Council that asks for an "ongoing accounting and assessment of Bonneville's expenditures." The letter says such steps can achieve greater accountability for fish and wildife expenditures that began with passage of the 1996 Gorton amendment to the Northwest Power Act which spelled out a scientific review process for all F&W proposals.

"The first report should also summarize to the degree possible, historical documentation on past expenditures, program successes and failures. Only through this type of consistent, methodical reporting can the region be assured it is receiving the best results for its significant investment in the Columbia River Basin."

The governors' July 2 letter praised the Power Planning Council for its past efforts, but they said, "We understand that improved evaluation and reporting procedures are necessary to further the public's understanding of Bonneville's significant annual expenditures." -Bill Rudolph

[7]SEATTLE OK'S WATERSHED PLAN

Five years in the making, a 50-year plan designed to protect fish, wildlife, and forests in Seattle's 90,000 acre Cedar River watershed was passed by the city council earlier this week. It's going to cost taxpayers $83 million if the plan goes into effect, but some environmental groups and the Muckleshoot Tribe have taken issue with certain elements.

Some have argued against the sockeye salmon hatchery that's in the works, arguing that such a facility would be detrimental to wild fish populations. The Cedar is home to a sockeye stock, planted back in the 1930s from Baker Lake, near Bellingham; the river occasionally produces more than half a million fish a year. A run of fall chinook spawn in the lower river, within the Renton city limits, between the Boeing plant and the city library.

The Muckleshoots have raised questions over water rights in the Cedar, where the city of Seattle gets 100 million gallons a day for its citizens, about 70 percent of the amount used by city dwellers. The new HCP (Habitat Conservation Plan) calls for using 150 million gallons a day for fish benefits, leaving another 50 million gallons a day the city could tap in the future.

The plan also puts an end to all commercial logging in the watershed.

Groups who have appealed the study that is the basis for the new HCP will have a chance to speak in front of a hearing examiner in September. -B.R.

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Link/Document Annex
Works Cited

LINKS/DOCUMENTS FROM NW FISHLETTER 084:: Below are listed links and documents referred to in the text of NW Fishletter issue 084.

• Long Term Wet-Dry Cycles in Oregon, George Taylor, Oregon State Climatologist, March, 1999
• Trout Unlimited Home Page

THE ARCHIVE :: Previous NW Fishletter issues and supporting documents.

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