[1] WASHINGTON HABITAT AGREEMENT CLOSE AT HAND

The salmon habitat plan for Washington's private forest land is nearly out of the woods after months of talks with federal and state officials, tribes and environmental groups. Timber industry types heard an update on the subject at the Washington Forest Protection Association's day-long meeting in Seattle last week.

After being whipped in court on the spotted owl issue, the industry has been eager to reach an agreement with federal and state officials, tribes and environmentalists over far-reaching changes that are designed to protect and restore salmon habitat on private forest lands, while also satisfying present and future ESA fish concerns.

Negotiations have been long in coming, but most players say an agreement is near, even though environmentalists walked away from the table in September because they were unhappy with a growing federal and private consensus.

State Commissioner of Public Lands Jennifer Belcher told the group that it was essential to get environmental organizations back to the table. "Don't assume you can get consensus without them," she said. Otherwise, she told the forestry group to expect fights over every detail in the plan. She told them they were close enough to get a "true consensus," but tribes would have to once again be "engaged" in the discussion.

The environmentalists' departure (led by the Washington Environmental Council and the National Audubon Society) was described by timber industry officials in the association's annual report as mainly determined by money and time constraints.

However, Becky Kelley of the Washington Environmental Council said that was an unfair characterization. She said federal officials and timber interests were getting close to agreement on new forest practices, but didn't go far enough to save fish habitat.

Kelley said the environmentalists will take the beginning of their own proposal before the state Forest Practices Board next month, with a fleshed-out version ready for a meeting in December, along with a scientific review.

A big concern of Kelley's--and one echoed by Belcher--is the steady conversion of timber land into real estate development. Belcher said the big companies have been "largely silent." She said the question is "What would keep people growing timber?"

An agreement without environmentalist input may be complete "with conceptual bones" by the end of the year, for presentation to the Forest Practices Board, said WFPA spokesman Mike Munson. But he said his group hopes the environmentalists re-join the discussion.

Sen. Slade Gorton (R-WA) said the talks are "vitally important," and the big challenge is getting participation of environmental groups and the tribes. He described his efforts at improving accountability for salmon recovery measures in the Columbia Basin by creating a science group to oversee fish and wildlife managers--"people who spent the money on themselves." He said legislation that would have allowed for even more scrutiny of BPA's fish and wildlife budget died in the recent marathon budget exercise in DC.

One thing was perfectly clear. Salmon listings will soon become a fact of life from one side of the state to the other. According to Gov. Gary Locke's salmon advisor, Curt Smitch, "just about every watershed in the state will have a listed species by next year." Smitch gave the group an update on progress with Washington's infant salmon recovery plan.

Smitch said negotiations over forest practices will be part of a new policy he called "a test case for reconciling growth and the environment." He told the group that good intentions aren't enough to

Rotting sockeye may be violating the Clean Water Act

deal with the ESA, but performance measures are necessary, along with stronger political will to call for the enforcement of existing laws. Smitch said up to now, strict enforcement of environmental regulations has given the legislature an excuse to cut funding in those enforcement areas.

"We have to demonstrate we're actually serious about it," he said, speaking of salmon recovery. He praised the industry for working to bring about changes that improve conditions for fish, and called for better collaboration between the two federal statutes that are driving these changes, the Clean Water Act and the ESA.

Bill Wilkerson, the Forest Protection Association's executive director, said he was more afraid of the implications of the Clean Water Act, but said industry is close to agreements with EPA, NMFS and USFWS officials about meeting federal mandates for clean water and fish habitat.

Smitch had less enthusiasm for the other H's in the salmon recovery equation. He said so far the state's draft plan for hydropower is "weak," and expressed concern that dealing with the Columbia Basin could "swamp the whole thing." He called the basin the "black hole" of salmon recovery and told the foresters that "people never come back once they get involved in it."

As for harvest and hatchery issues, Smitch said those are also weak areas in the plan. He said the state fishery agency and the tribes took the lead in those areas, "but that's about as far as we got."

Smith also stressed the need for an agreement with Canada over the Pacific Salmon Treaty, but he implied that would mean more compromise by the state of Alaska over their fishermen's catch of BC-bound stocks. Smitch said Alaska was quite comfortable to go fishing without any agreement. Canadians have complained about Alaska's interception of weak northern BC coho and sockeye runs, but Alaskans say stocks are better off than BC politicians think, and proof of that was the good coho season for Southeast Alaska fishermen this past summer.

Other speakers stressed the need for real goals and the importance of working together. Marc Crisson, head of Tacoma Public Utilities, said there are reasons for optimism about development of a state plan because the governor and state agencies have pulled together and haven't polarized into factions in the manner that led to spending billions in the Columbia Basin "with little impact on recovery of wild stocks."

Others stressed the need for the feds to set numerical recovery goals, but resource economist Darryll Olsen said such goals set for recovering Snake River salmon like fall chinook are unrealistic. "I have no faith that fall chinook goals will ever be met," he said.

Wheat grower Alex McGregor said baseline levels for recovering stocks must be developed, though, to achieve "economic certainty" for his segment of the economy.

Mike Poulsen of the Washington Farm Bureau said his group is skeptical about the state's effort--"they plan a volunteer program they will force us to comply with"--but "maybe a plan can be created from it." As for goals, Poulsen said, "Don't ask us to commit to numbers we have no control over."

Another issue that came up was equity--the costs to be borne by those under the umbrella of the big H for habitat, as opposed to harvesters, hydro operators, or hatcheries. The timber industry expects to spend tens of millions of dollars annually to restore habitat and improve roads, as well as taking 10 percent to 20 percent of its land base out of production forever, and urban watershed owners may have to spend more than their rural counterparts to comply with new standards.

But Tacoma Utilities head Crisson told the group that it has been his experience that achieving "equity is not a big part of the effort" when it comes to salmon recovery.

WFPA director Wilkerson said his group is ready to pay for stability and "avoid another owl experience." He said the agreement, which has involved the governor, the state legislature, the land commissioner and the president and vice-president, will change the way his members operate. It will cost money, but provide a benchmark for the future. "A year and a half ago, we made a choice to avoid another train wreck," he observed. -Bill Rudolph

[2] NMFS ORDERS MORE WATER FOR SPAWNERS BELOW BONNEVILLE

Columbia River salmon managers accused BPA last month of deliberately operating Bonneville Dam "to limit access of fall chinook adults to the spawning area in Hamilton Slough by reducing flows during the daytime" and asked NMFS to provide more water for the fish. But on Oct. 21, the agency turned down the managers' operational request because it was unwilling to accept the risk of not meeting the BiOp's mandate for water levels next spring.

However, after an optimistic analysis of flow outcomes by the power agency, NMFS changed its mind last week and ordered outflows of at least 125 kcfs at Bonneville Dam, starting Nov. 2 and possibly lasting as late as next April 30--barring flood control or power emergencies, or power operations during arctic outbreaks. At press time, all parties were waiting for fish managers to OK the agreement in writing to acknowledge the potential risk of dewatering the redds later this winter.

The Oct. 30 NMFS letter to fish managers said neither the fall chinook nor chum in this part of the river are listed under the ESA. "However," the letter goes on, "there is some question whether this specific group of fall chinook are a part of the evolutionary significant unit (ESU) proposed for listing."

The fish in question have colonized an area 60 miles upriver from Portland, where as many as 5,000 spawners have been observed in recent years. The strategy salmon managers have called for is exactly opposite the strategy that's being implemented upriver at the Hanford Reach, where Grant County PUD announced Oct. 15 that it is adjusting flows to keep the river level low at Vernita Bar so salmon will not spawn in areas that could be de-watered later.

The fish managers argued in a letter to NMFS that the risk of not meeting reservoir elevations can't be "specifically defined" until next January, when the runoff volume forecast becomes available. The Oct. 14 letter, signed by representatives of both states' fisheries departments and USFWS, points out that both the Power Planning Council's science panel and salmon managers "have placed a high priority on the protection, enhancement and management of naturally spawning salmon, including mainstem fall chinook." Noting that construction of the hydro system destroyed most of the mainstem spawning areas, they said "the few remaining spawning areas require protection."

But the salmon colonizing the area in question have been genetically linked to hatchery fish, according to BPA biologist Dan Daley.

And wild fish advocate Bill Bakke, director of the Native Fish Society (and contributing NW Fishletter editor) wasn't upset about the situation, either. "Why protect them when they're all hatchery fish?" said Bakke.

The original request had asked for an instantaneous minimum dishcharge of 125 kcfs from Bonneville Dam beginning Oct. 23 and continuing through Nov. 15.

BPA's Robyn McKay was somewhat sympathetic. "Ideally, I would like to run more water in the fall," she said, but noted that the 5,000 fall chinook returning this year came from a brood year "when there was not a lot of water."

In fact, according to Daley, during the spawning season of 1994-1995, when this year's return got its start, the spawning habitat in question was uncovered.

McKay said that such a strategy "has the potential of not being at upper rule curve" for the spring, when more flow is being called for than before under the supplemental steelhead BiOp written this year. Neither upriver nor lower river tribes supported the operational request, either.

But an analysis prepared later by BPA found only a 17 percent likelihood of having insufficient water to continue the operation if adjusted to reflect a La Niña condition this winter (Jan.-July runoff for The Dalles 85 MAF or more) rather than a 32 percent chance of running out of water if the entire 60-year water record is used. -B.R.

[3] MORE FUNDING FOR SALMON NET PENS

The Power Planning Council has approved funding to expand fishing opportunities in the lower Columbia. At their work session in Pendleton on Oct. 14, Council members approved money for more net pens to raise coho salmon at several sites near Astoria on both the Washington and Oregon shores. The fish are now raised at several places near the mouth of the river, and fed until they are old enough to be released.

Returns have been mixed over the past few years. But this fall, cohos released from the Youngs Bay net pen site have produced more than 15,000 adults for commercial gillnetters while another 3,330 fish have been produced at the Tongue Point site, according to Astoria fisherman Don Riswick. Riswick said that's almost five times the number predicted for the Youngs Bay harvest this year. Buyers were paying 40 cent a pound for the fish.

Just west of Astoria, Youngs Bay is one of the four sites where fish are raised to provide a harvest area for lower river fishermen, allowing them to fish in places where it is difficult to intercept ESA-listed salmon heading up the mainstem Columbia.

"In addition to valuable research, the program provides an economic benefit to the lower Columbia area through enhanced sport and commercial fishing opportunities," said Council chair John Etchart of Montana. The program is a joint effort of the Washington and Oregon Fish and Wildlife Departments and the Clatsop County Economic Development Council.

About $158,000 would be allocated for 12 new net pens, which would allow another 200,000 coho to be raised at each of the two sites. The total budget for the five-site project is expected to be about $1.4 million for 1999.

By the end of October, commercial fishermen had netted about 24,000 coho and 2,000 chinook created by the project, worth about $30,000 altogether.

Currently, the project releases about 600,000 coho and 1.75 million spring and fall chinook. For 1996, adult harvest totaled over 22,000 coho and 1,600 chinook. According to Council staffer John Marsh, that means, statistically, that only one endangered Snake River fall chinook was harvested by the fishery.

The net pen project is being monitored for its effectiveness, as part of a 10-year research project that began in 1993 to evaluate strategies, sites and harvest strategies designed to allow harvest by commercial and sport fishermen while protecting weaker runs. -B.R.

[4] HATCHERIES AND ENDANGERED FISH: A PERSPECTIVE

In the November 1998 issue of Fisheries, biologist Paul Anders provides a perspective on the use of hatcheries for fish recovery. "The goal of conservation aquaculture," says Anders, "is to conserve wild fish populations along with their locally adapted gene pools and characteristic phenotypes and behaviors."

Anders warns against waiting too long before applying recovery efforts. The "overwhelming superiority of large populations argues strongly against fisheries management policies that consider aquaculture as a last resort" to recover endangered populations.

His analysis distinguishes between conservation aquaculture and the production hatchery, which is fish agencies use to provide a supply of fish for their customers, the license buyers and poundage fee folks.

He points out that risks associated with hatcheries, such as inbreeding, fitness depression, and domestication, are readily observable and have been well documented. They must be controlled or avoided in the conservation hatchery.

Anders allied himself with Idaho biologist E.L. Brannon, who said hatchery programs will fail if they "neglect the requirements of natural populations and, therefore, the traits they possess that allow them to synchronize their life history with specific environmental constraints."

Fish managers must follow two roads of conservation at the same time, Anders stats. Native fish population must be brought under protective management through the conservation of gene pools, but habitats that support this genetic diversity must also be protected and restored in order to recover the populations. He says these two strategies are often overlooked.

While Anders admits that conservation aquaculture is no panacea for recovering endangered fish, it may sometimes be the only way to maintain an effective breeding population and preserve genetic diversity within a population two requirements for long-term persistence of any native, wild population. -Bill Bakke

[5] OCEAN CLIMATE REGIME MAY BE SHIFTING GEARS

With fall runs of coho and chum salmon nearly over, sports fishermen in Puget Sound have seen some great fishing lately. Just last week, commercial fishermen with unexpected success catching chum salmon were madly calling about on their radios looking for buyers. That same day, state politicians like Public Lands Commissioner Jennifer Belcher told the timber industry that "it's not too late for our ecosystem, but time is growing short."

Two things are abundantly clear. Salmon runs display a high degree of variability, and at election time, they may be worth more as political footballs than as a food source.

With many runs in Washington experiencing modest gains despite last year's intense El Niño, the region may be on the rebound for salmon productivity. Evidence continues to mount that Alaska and Northwest salmon runs are collected at the atmospheric/oceanic hip in a seesaw relationship. If Alaska's salmon runs are declining, that could be great news for runs in the Lower 48. Some say it's part of a natural oscillation in the North Pacific. (See related stories in NW Fishletter 20, 39, 42, 58, and 62.)

Congress recently agreed to a $50 million assistance package for western Alaska after the famous sockeye run returned to Bristol Bay at about half predicted levels for the second year in a row. With two years of declining runs under their belts, scientists from the University of Alaska have been watching carefully. Fisheries professor Milo Adkison had predicted a much larger run. When it failed to materialize, he admitted it was not totally unexpected.

In a recent interview with Alaska Sea Grant writer Doug Schneider, Adkison said, "I'm not saying that we've entered a new regime, but the problem is that you have shifts that

Bumper crop for fall fishermen

occur every 15 years or so. On top of that you have this huge year-to-year variation. So it's really hard to look at a year like last year and say 'Okay, things were lousy this year and so they're going to be lousy next year.' It's very common to have things be lousy one year and good the next year. Because there's this large interannual variability, you have a hard time deciding that you're in a new regime until you've seen five years of bad returns in a row or five years of exceptional returns in a row."

Other comments of University of Alaska researchers show they are still not totally convinced such a change is on the way, but they have measured large changes in primary plankton productivity, which is a pretty good clue.

The debate over oceanic regime shifts became murkier last month after a panel of four well-known scientists gave little weight to the notion of either periodic cycles in the ocean or their effects on fish, after examining evidence collected during the PATH process for evaluating the major uncertainties surrounding fish recovery actions in the Columbia Basin.

But two earlier salmon studies, the National Research Council's Upstream (1995) and the Independent Scientific Group's Return to the River (1996), found that oceanic regime shifts correlated with changes in salmon abundance. Moreover, the two studies reported an out-of-phase relationship between Alaska stocks and those in Washington and Oregon.

The latest analysis of the situation by Northwest scientists comes in a paper slated for publication in the January 1999 issue of Fisheries called "Inverse Production Regimes: Alaska and West Coast Pacific Salmon," by Steve Hare of the International Pacific Halibut Commission and University of Washington scientists Nate Mantua and Bob Francis.

The paper looks at differences in salmon productivity between the two regions and assesses the different atmospheric and oceanic phenomena that may be responsible for such a state of affairs.

"According to our conceptual model," they said in their latest "in press" draft, "the Alaska and West Coast Pacific salmon populations are both responding to ocean climate conditions. For most of the past 20 years, conditions have favored Alaska Pacific salmon and have been unfavorable for West Coast Pacific salmon. A significant shift in zooplankton biomass as well as its distribution around the subarctic gyre has apparently provided favorable feeding conditions for migrant Alaska-origin smolts during a critical stage in their life history. Conversely, the dramatic decrease in zooplankton production off the West Coast due to tratification of California Current waters and decreased primary production has created a relatively barren ocean environment for West Coast smolts. As adults, many West Coast Pacific salmon migrate to and spend considerable time in the Subartic Gyre, which they co-inhabit with adult Alaska-origin Pacific salmon. However, because it is during the early ocean near shore phase of their life history that we hypothesize the oceanic influence occurs, we would expect these two populations to show inverse trends in production."

The researchers see salmon recovery efforts seriously hampered by the relatively unproductive ocean pastures off the West Coast, but they counsel patience. "Unfavorable ocean conditions are likely confounding recent management efforts focused on increasing West Coast Pacific salmon production. Recovery of at-risk (threatened and endangered) stocks may await the next reversal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Managers should continue to limit harvests, improve hatchery practices and restore freshwater and estuarine habitats to protect these populations during periods of poor ocean productivity. -B.R.

[6] FERC GRANTS PARTIAL STAY OF CUSHMAN RELICENSE

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission decided last week to separate out the minimum flow conditions from a stay it granted against the new license it recently issued for Tacoma Power's 124 MW Cushman hydroelectric project. But while Tacoma may still incur expenses developing plans to accommodate higher flows by the January deadline, the utility expects the case will be at the court of appeals before the new facilities can be built or the flows implemented.

"When the releases would have to be put in place is unclear, as FERC must approve the plan," said Tacoma attorney Mike Swiger. In addition, "The spillway must be constructed and that would take time." An even more immediate problem is that the utility cannot design the new facilities until it knows what the final decision on the minimum flow will be.

"If they need to modify [facilities], then they should modify," said Victor Martino, consultant to the Skokomish Tribe of Indians. But he said agencies such as the Washington Department of Ecology don't agree that modifications are necessary to increase minimum flows. He said the tribe is still asking for immediate interim relief, including a 240 cfs minimum flow level, even if that means new facilities must be built first.

Under the stay, Tacoma's actions "will continue to do harm, and won't reduce the damage to the tribe from the Cushman project," Martino added.

Jeff Marti, environmental specialist at the Department of Ecology, said his agency does not think Tacoma "has proven they have to modify their facilities" to increase flows. He said during a dam safety evaluation last year, "the gates appeared to in proper working order and capable of releasing more [water]."

Tacoma, which had proposed a new minimum flow of 100 cfs, is currently operating the project at 30 cfs under an agreement with Ecology. It says to operate the project at anything much above that would require structural modifications to ensure safety and reliability. "Anything higher is too risky," Swiger said.

FERC cited earlier cases involving EWEB and Montana Power in deciding that it was just to stay some costly license articles that might be overturned on rehearing or appeal.

The Oct. 28 FERC order came in response to Tacoma's motion for a stay of the July 30, 1998 relicense FERC issued for Cushman. The new license conditions, which include a 240 cfs minimum flow provision, mean the annual cost to operate the project would be $2.5 million more than the cost of replacement power, according to both Tacoma and FERC.

The Department of Interior, NMFS, EPA, the Skokomish Tribe and Washington Depts. of Ecology and F&W opposed the stay request, some noting that the $630,000 Tacoma estimated it would have to spend during the first six months to comply with the license would not cause the utility "irreparable harm." They argue, according to FERC, "that after some 74 years of operation of Cushman without any meaningful environmental mitigation measures...there is a great need for definiteness and finality in this proceeding" and that "a stay will cause irreparable harm to the environment and the Tribe's treaty-protected interests..."

FERC noted that some opponents, including NMFS and the Washington Department of F&W, also argued that conditions such as new minimum flow levels will be required regardless of whether the project continues to operate or is decommissioned.

FERC also denied Tacoma's motion for a clarification that the original license for Cushman remains in effect pending rehearing and judicial review of the new license. Tacoma has not accepted the new license terms, and maintains that unless the old conditions pertain during its appeal, its right to seek modification of the new license is effectively nullified. But FERC pointed out the project has been operating under annual relicenses for 24 years and that the Federal Power Act does not authorize "indefinite annual licensing until after completion of rehearing and judicial review."

FERC did allow, however, that operating Cushman under the new conditions "will not be construed as acceptance of the new license pending rehearing and judicial review." Tacoma can defer a decision on whether to accept or reject the license until appeals play out, but until then, "Tacoma must either operate the project in accordance with any non-stayed provisions of the new license or stop generating electricity at the project..."

But as for the stay, FERC said "there is a need for minimum flows in the North Fork Skokomish River, and Tacoma will have to modify the project to allow for those releases." Accordingly, it said "justice requires" a partial stay during rehearing (but not, at least for now, during judicial review) and ordered "immediate implementation" of license articles related to the new minimum flow level.

Tacoma's Swiger said the utility has not yet decided how to respond to the partial stay order, though a rehearing request is a possibility. The utility filed in August for rehearing of the license order itself. -Ben Tansey

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Link/Document Annex
Works Cited

LINKS/DOCUMENTS FROM NW FISHLETTER 070:: Below are listed links and documents referred to in the text of NW Fishletter issue 070.

• NMFS letter to fish managers, Oct. 30, 1998
• NW Fishletter 20
• NW Fishletter 39
• NW Fishletter 42
• NW Fishletter 58
• NW Fishletter 62
• Alaska Sea Grant Web Site
• Inverse Production Regimes: Alaska and West Coast Pacific Salmon

THE ARCHIVE :: Previous NW Fishletter issues and supporting documents.

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