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[1] POWER COUNCIL VOTES ON PROPOSALS FOR CHANGING MAINSTEM OPERATIONS
Northwest Power Planning Council members heard last week that Montana's recommendations to cut spill and flows throughout the hydro system may not be as bad for migrating juvenile salmon and steelhead as many have suspected. In some cases, it may actually improve fish survivals over operations now mandated in the hydro BiOp, according to a Power Council staff analysis that used NMFS' own tool to estimate fish survivals. The analysis was part of three days' worth of council deliberations over amending the mainstem part of the Columbia Basin's fish and wildlife program.
On the other hand, recommendations from the state of Oregon, which called for boosting spills and flows throughout the system, were estimated to reduce survival of some stocks up to 4 percent, principally from the Snake River, if Oregon's call for more flows and 24-hour spill at the dams was initiated, according to council staffer Bruce Suzumoto, who analyzed the biological effects of the Montana and Oregon recommendations. The increased spill would keep more juvenile fish from entering the bypass systems at lower Snake dams, which route the smolts to barges, Suzumoto said.
The Oregon proposal would also cost the region up to $47 million annually and reduce winter generation by more than 2500 aMW, according to council staffer John Fazio, who analyzed the power effects of the Montana and Oregon recommendations. Fazio said his numbers didn't include the cost of providing 1 million acre-feet of upper Snake water and another 1 MAF from Canadian storage reservoirs for flow augmentation in the mainstem, as recommended by Oregon.
Montana's recommendations, which also called for limiting summer spill and releasing water from its reservoirs to level outflows, were estimated to save the region about $65 million, according to the analysis. Idaho's proposal to limit spring flow augmentation in the Snake was expected to save another $9.6 million over current BiOp operations.
"The table is now set for a good discussion of the recommendations," said Montana council member John Hines.
Suzumoto used NMFS' SIMPAS passage model in his analysis. He said it's the same model the federal agency used in its 2000 hydro BiOp to estimate fish survivals through the hydro system.
Suzumoto also said the survival differences from changes in spill operations reflect the different passage routes taken by fish. As spill is decreased, more fish pass each dam via its bypass system or turbines. Though studies have been conducted at most dams to estimate survivals by the different routes, the model still makes approximations based on "best professional judgment," Suzumoto told the council.
Model Judgment
Just before Suzumoto's presentation at last week's council meeting in Spokane, NWPPC Chair Larry Cassidy announced that he had received a letter from regional fish and wildlife managers at the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Authority, who cautioned against using the model for several reasons.
"The relations and point estimates used in these simple passage models are far too simple to adequately capture the complexity of salmonid survival relations," the Oct. 16 letter said, "and are, therefore, inappropriate as the primary basis for management decisions."
The fish managers did not suggest an alternative, but said the NMFS model did not consider the issue of delayed mortality of fish that either were transported through the hydro system, or that migrated inriver. They said such mortality can occur at higher rates for fish that are either transported or that use bypass systems, rather than fish that pass dams via spillways, a mechanism long considered to be the least obtrusive way of getting them past the concrete. It's a topic of some debate, which may heat up this fall when new research data is expected to be released.
Oregon council member Erich Bloch questioned the use of the SIMPAS model as well, because it contained no direct flow/survival connection with fish. But Suzumoto said any such effects would be indirectly captured by pool survival estimates from PIT-tag studies incorporated in the model.
Both Hines and Idaho council member Jim Kempton told NW Fishletter they welcomed more analysis of the recommendations. Both endorsed using the UW/BPA CRiSP [Columbia River Salmon Passage] computer model to estimate biological benefits from the proposals to change mainstem operations.
CRiSP modeler Prof. Jim Anderson said later that there are three versions of CRiSP: the earliest one actually does contain a flow/survival relationship, but the current one tracks with SIMPAS. Anderson said the newest version of CRiSP, yet to be calibrated, uses distance and fish travel time as major parameters. He said upper and lower estimates of fish survival for different hydro operations could be generated by running different versions of the model.
The Montana recommendations that call for dumping annual flow targets and flow augmentation in the spring were estimated to have the greatest effect on upper- and mid-Columbia steelhead stocks during high flow years, when they could suffer up to 8 percent higher mortality than during periods of BiOp-mandated spill. Current BiOp-mandated spill levels at dams are capped at levels that limit gas supersaturation levels at 120 percent in the mainstem, 10 percent higher than legal limits.
Montana wants to cap spill at 115 percent gas levels, which effectively reduces spill by nearly half. During medium-flow years, the steelhead stocks would suffer about 6 percent higher losses from the Montana option and about 2 percent more mortality in low flow years.
The SIMPAS model showed only marginal fish losses from Montana's recommendations for reduced summer spill. It estimated that mortality of Hanford Reach fall chinook would increase about 2 percent over current operations during high-flow years, with no difference in mortality in low-flow years. That is because most of the fish are barged, Suzumoto told the council. He said the analysis suggested that spill reduction might be focused at dams where fish were collected for barging to maximize the strategy, but that spill could also be optimized at lower mainstem dams.
After devoting more than half of their agenda time to the task, Power Council members finally voted for a list of preferred alternatives for mainstem operation. The results will be presented to the public by the end of this week.
The council accepted the main thrust of Montana's proposals for spring operations, voting 7-1 (with only Oregon's Bloch voting no) for basic changes to current flow augmentation policy, including reservoir refill by the end of June and removal of the April 10 flood control levels at basin reservoirs, to allow additional flexibility in the system, with some possible caveats. Preferred summer operations are based on each state's proposal for more level outflows than called for in the BiOp.
The members were less clear about the future of flow targets. But their final recommendation is likely to downplay the importance of the targets or call for their outright demise. Oregon's request to add up to 2 MAF of additional water from the upper Snake and Canada did not pass muster with the rest of the council. But Montana member Ed Bartlett said the public may still get a chance to comment on items nixed by the Council. That question will be brought up during this week's meeting of the four members charged with editing the results of last week's deliberations for public review.
The council had split evenly over whether to recommend Montana's call for reducing spill to 115 percent gas supersaturation levels, but later Oregon member John Brogoitti said he had misunderstood the situation and "screwed up" his vote. Brogoitti, who has already been very public about his support for Montana and Idaho recommendations, voted with Washington's two members and Oregon's Erich Bloch to keep the council from putting the Montana spill proposal in with their list of preferred alternatives.
Public comment on the council's recommendations will be accepted until the middle of January, with public hearings expected in each state, a final public airing at the council's January meeting and final adoption expected by the February meeting. -Bill Rudolph
[2] LATEST WORD ON MORE FLOW: LITTLE HELP TO FISH
There is no relation between river flows during juvenile migrations and the numbers of returning adults, according to a recent paper by one of the principal architects of a computer model that estimates Columbia River fish survival. The report is just the latest volley in a growing debate over Columbia Basin water use--a topic now under review by the Power Planning Council as it struggles to recommend cost-effective, yet biologically beneficial, changes to federal hydro system operations.
Eastern Washington irrigators submitted the analysis, by University of Washington Professor Jim Anderson, as expert testimony in a lawsuit against the state's Department of Ecology over the issuance of new water permits. The state has maintained a policy based on NMFS' "no net loss" water standard in the mainstem Columbia. The policy is part of the agency's position in its newest hydro BiOp--a document that still supports flow augmentation for migrating stocks of salmon and steelhead listed under the ESA in the face of a growing body of evidence that such a strategy doesn't improve fish survival.
Anderson reviewed the latest NMFS PIT-tag research, which found either no or "statistically weak" relationships between flow increases and improved survival of both juveniles and returning adults when data was averaged yearly. When the data was compared weekly or averaged daily within each year, "no relationships were evident whatsoever," Anderson said.
The author pointed out that NMFS results published after the agency issued its pro-flow/survival hydro BiOp support the conclusion that flow and survival aren't related (Smith et al, 2002), but still pay lip service to its BiOp policy.
"Thus," say Smith et al, "survival benefits to the stocks from increased flow in this stretch of the river were at best minimal; any measurable benefits occurred downstream from the Snake River," further speculating that flow augmentation "might provide survival benefits in other portions of the salmonid life cycle and in free-flowing sections of the river both upstream and downstream from the hydro system."
Anderson said evidence that flow augmentation could improve arrival time of smolts in the estuary was slim. A paper cited by the NMFS authors found such a correlation in only one year, and the opposite was true for smolts barged through the hydro system.
"The question remains, then, does flow augmentation directed at fish migrating through the hydro system improve survival of fish in the tributaries above hydro system, in the estuary, or in the Columbia River plume below the hydro system?" Anderson asked.
He cited other NMFS studies that have found survival of hatchery chinook to the first dam on the Snake related to distance traveled, but not the length of time it took to get there. Also, 10 years of data from spring chinook migrating 116 km from Dworshak hatchery to Lower Granite Dam showed a flat flow-survival link over flows that ranged from 20 kcfs to 140 kcfs. Fall chinook exhibit a flow-survival relationship to Lower Granite, but several years of studies have shown that their survival is also correlated to release date, temperature and turbidity.
If flow augmentation affects fish survival below the hydro system, then adult return data must be assessed, which complicates the analysis because of other factors that come into play, like ocean conditions, which could correlate with wet and dry years. Such a situation would then make it impossible to establish a clear cause-and-effect relationship between flow and survival, Anderson said.
Several studies in recent years have found correlations between flow and adult returns. But NMFS said it couldn't find a relationship, although the agency added that " it is not possible to rule one out."
Anderson said recent data compiled since the BiOp was issued shows that wild spring chinook migrations from 1995 to 2000 exhibit no flow-survival (to adult) pattern within each year or between years for Lower Granite flows that ranged between 50 kcfs and 200 kcfs. A graph that accompanied his analysis showed a relationship of flows to adult returns as random as a handful of pasta thrown against a kitchen wall.
In his paper, Anderson chronicled the modeling wars of the 1990s, when the agencies and tribes' FLUSH model battled his own salmon passage model, CRiSP, built with BPA funds and based on NMFS PIT-tag results. The FLUSH model ended up going down the drain, seriously underestimating fish survival. The feds then developed their own model, called SIMPAS, that contained no flow-survival relationship, though CRiSP and SIMPAS estimated nearly identical hydro system survivals for 1999, 56 percent and 54 percent, respectively.
The irrigators used the CRiSP model in their lawsuit against the state over the issuance of new water permits. The model predicts the impact of a 147 cfs withdrawal in proposed water permits would be less than one adult salmon. The NMFS model indicates no fish would be lost.
The state has rejected the CRiSP results and ignored the NMFS model, said Anderson. Ecology has bought more than $900,000 worth of water rights to make up for the proposed withdrawal on the permit in question because the state maintains the additional water withdrawals "have the probable effect of exacerbating the situation, thus delaying or preventing recovery of listed fish, " DOE Water Manager Bob Barwin said in court documents. -B. R.
[3] TOO MANY STEELHEAD IN UPPER COLUMBIA RIVER, BIOLOGISTS SAY
It's a fish biologist's ultimate nightmare: too many fish coming back, spawning one on top of another, creating crowded conditions when juveniles emerge and the potential for an extremely poor run in the future. For the second year in a row, steelhead are flooding the upper Columbia tributaries.
To reduce the numbers of spawning steelhead, Washington state biologists proposed a winter fishery to target some of the thousands of steelhead that were raised at the Wells hatchery to supplement wild runs. The intent was to help boost the size of wild runs that are listed as endangered under the ESA, and the Wells hatchery steelhead are listed as part of the endangered evolutionarily significant unit and subject to the same protection as the wild component of the stock.
But Oct. 1, when the fishery was scheduled to begin, steelhead managers at the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife were still waiting for the feds' blessing to open a hatchery steelhead fishery on the Okanogan and Methow rivers, the upper Columbia and the Hanford Reach. NMFS officials had promised a settlement by the middle of the month, said WDFW Steelhead Manager Bob Leland.
The fishery opened on Oct. 12, after the feds actually did complete the process for the new federal permit that began in April. The recreational fishery is being called "research;" it's being included as part of a new "direct take" permit for ESA steelhead required by the hatchery operation.
Back in August, the state said it was "blindsided" when NMFS told WDFW it would need an environmental impact statement to go along with the proposal before the feds could issue a biological opinion on the proposed action, said WDFW biologist Heather Bartlett.
"The new permit is more of a recovery and enhancement permit with the recreational fishery in there to control the spawning population," Bartlett said.
Last year, NMFS modified the ESA permit for operation of the Wells hatchery to allow for a winter recreational fishery only in the Okanogan River, where most returning steelhead were of the supplemented variety. But the fishery was too little, too late. Bartlett said the Okanogan has enough room for several hundred steelhead to spawn, but even with last year's recreational effort, several thousand steelhead returned. "The fishery barely made a dent," she said.
In the Methow River, which enters the Columbia upstream from Wells Dam, steelhead escapement goals are about 2,500 fish, said Bartlett. Nearly four times that number filled the Methow last year. She said it was likely that escapement goal would double this year, too. "Twenty years' worth of data indicates we need to remove some fish," she told NW Fishletter.
The big Methow steelhead runs of the 1980s produced much smaller runs, Bartlett said. Biologists think that overcrowded conditions in spawning and rearing areas contributed to the reduced runs. Steelhead typically spend one or two years in fresh water, sometimes longer, before going to sea for two or three years more. Upon returning to spawn, some even migrate back to sea, and spawn again.
Winters in the Methow Basin are harsh. The streams are very cold and unproductive compared to other parts of the Northwest, which limits populations to fairly small numbers. "It'll take five or six years to see what happens," Bartlett said.
But even though the state is awash in Wells hatchery steelhead. it doesn't want to reduce its supplementation effort. "We still need a portion of those hatchery fish; that wild run can't support itself," Bartlett said.
The fish used to supplement the wild runs, which are raised from wild/hatchery parentage, are not marked with a clipped fin like steelhead with both parents of hatchery origin. Steelhead planted in the Okanogan have two hatchery parents as well, to serve as a backup source for broodstock if too few wild and supplemented stocks return to the region.
Last year, nearly 17,000 steelhead returned to Wells Dam, 8,000 of which were wild. This year, more than 5,000 wild fish have returned out of about 8,300 total steelhead so far, a far cry from the 900 or so fish that were counted passing Wells in the dark days of 1995, when stocks were hammered by a combination of El Niņos and poor ocean conditions.
Sports fishermen have been waiting patiently, since the mouth of the Methow was once one of the hottest steelhead fishing spots in the basin. "We are pleased we could work with federal fisheries officials to craft a sound fishery that allows anglers to benefit from a large returning run of hatchery steelhead without impacting wild steelhead recovery," said Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Director Jeff Koenings.
Recreational fishers will be allowed to catch two marked hatchery steelhead a day. Nearly 10,000 marked fish are expected to return to the Methow, Okanogan and Similkameen rivers, with another 6,200 marked steelhead expected to return to Ringold Hatchery near Pasco. Fishing will also be allowed in the mainstem Columbia, in both the Hanford Reach and upstream from Rocky Reach Dam to Chief Joseph Dam, until the end of March.
Last winter, a whitefish fishery in the Methow got out of hand, Bartlett said, when diehard sporties came from as far away as Wyoming to target the off-limit steelhead instead of the smaller whitefish. She said reports indicated that up to 30 steelhead were caught and released during one trip while the fishery was underway.
The state closed down the whitefish season last year as a show of "good faith" to the feds, Bartlett said. The state estimates a 5-percent mortality of wild steelhead hooked during the winter fishery. Typically, many steelhead will overwinter in the mainstem Columbia and head up tributaries the following spring to spawn during high flows. -B. R.
[4] NMFS SAYS 2001 UPPER COLUMBIA SPRING RUN SHOULD BE OK
NMFS scientists have updated a June inter-agency memo that said it was likely that fewer spring chinook migrating from the Snake River during last year's drought died than other agencies suggested. The latest memo, from the Northwest Fisheries Science Center to its hydro operations office in Portland, said that chinook jacks counted at Rock Island Dam this year provide evidence that Mid-Columbia runs will not suffer drastic losses either.
NMFS said it can't make a tight prediction of adult return rates next year, "but we believe it should fall within those seen in recent years." Agency scientists noted that although a good return rate is likely to occur, "it will include considerably fewer adults than in 2001 and 2002 because of the substantially lower number of smolts in the outmigration."
The agency examined the ratio of returning wild and hatchery jacks--precocious males that return a year ahead of the main run--to the total number of spring chinook released above Priest Rapids Dam in 2001. The scientists found a decrease in jack return rates for the upper-Columbia fish compared to the Snake River fish, which "may indicate the poorer conditions faced by upper Columbia fish in 2001 as they did not have the benefit of transportation as did the Snake River fish."
Some upper Columbia fish were barged from McNary Dam last year, but the strategy called for transporting fish every other day, which allowed for some spill at the dam. Only about one-third of the juveniles were barged, compared to more than 90 percent of the juvenile spring chinook and steelhead that were transported from the Snake. -B. R.
[5] FERC STAFF PUSHES SCALED-DOWN BOX CANYON DAM CONDITIONS
The Pend Oreille County PUD should monitor erosion and water quality, restore trout habitat and pursue other mitigation measures at its Box Canyon Dam in northeastern Washington. But it shouldn't have to install fish passage or restore wildlife habitat to the extent prescribed by federal resource agencies and the Kalispel Tribe, the staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has recommended.
In a draft environmental impact statement released late last month, the FERC staff concluded that building fish passage, among other wildlife enhancement measures ordered by the US Department of the Interior, would be an unjustified expense and that more study of bull trout populations below the dam would be needed before making that decision. The draft EIS was filed as part of the relicensing process for the dam.
The PUD was pleased with the contents of the draft EIS. The FERC staff alternative would "still be expensive for us, but it's a large improvement over the whole deal we were looking at before," said Bob Geddes, the PUD's general manager.
The PUD has been nervous about high project costs that could result from the Box Canyon relicensing proceeding. If all the conditions recommended by federal resource agencies and the Kalispel Tribe were included in the dam license, the utility estimated that it would cost hundreds of millions of dollars to comply. That would translate into a huge rate increase for the PUD's primary customer, Ponderay Newsprint, which is also a key employer in the county. Losing Ponderay Newsprint would be devastating for ratepayers and workers, Geddes said.
With mitigation measures recommended by the FERC staff, the project would cost about $8 million a year to operate--about $628,000 more than the PUD has proposed spending--and would generate almost 475,600 MWh a year, providing a net annual benefit of about $9 million, according to the draft EIS. The addition of certain mitigation measures, such as fish passage, as prescribed by federal agencies and the Kalispel Tribe, would increase project operational costs to about $11 million per year, decrease generation to about 464,400 MWh and provide a net annual benefit of $5.5 million, the DEIS concluded. If all the mitigation proposed by all parties were implemented, the project would cost about $11 million, produce about 382 MWh per year and provide a net benefit of a little more than $1 million, according to the DEIS.
The tribe will continue pressing for fish passage and other fisheries mitigation, habitat restoration, erosion control and cultural resource programs, said Deane Osterman, the tribe's director of natural resources. "Fish passage is certainly a necessary component of the recovery of bull trout in northeastern Washington," Osterman said. The tribe has argued that since Box Canyon went on line in the early 1950s, it has caused damage to the tribe's reservation and to nearby natural resources that "need to be mitigated fully," Osterman said. "This has been 45 to 50 years' worth of problems and 25 years' worth of legal processes."
The FERC staff recommended more study of erosion around the dam, to determine how much is being caused by dam operations. But the staff dropped the tribe's recommendation that the PUD provide the Kalispels with $50,000 per year to spend on erosion control and mitigation on tribal lands, as well as a recommendation to limit drawdowns of the Box Canyon reservoir water level to 12 inches daily and 36 inches weekly. The FERC staff also dropped the Idaho Department of Fish and Game's recommendation that the PUD lower the reservoir level about two feet during fall, winter and spring to provide free-flowing river conditions in the Idaho portion of the pool.
The PUD filed an application in January 2000 to relicense Box Canyon dam, a 72-MW project on the Pend Oreille River in northeastern Washington, about 34 miles from where the Pend Oreille flows into the Columbia River. The project occupies 3,200 acres, about 700 acres of which is on federal land, and about 500 acres within the Kalispel Indian Reservation.
The PUD plans to replace all four turbines with new, high-efficiency runners and rewound generators to boost the facility's annual output from 452 million KWh to up to 487 million KWh.
The US Department of Fish and Wildlife is likely to require fish passage, among other wildlife habitat mitigation measures, as a condition for a new license, said Rick Donaldson, an agency fish and wildlife biologist based in Spokane, WA. "We were disappointed that [the FERC staff] didn't accept the fishway prescription or feel it was justified," Donaldson told NW Fishletter. He added that the USFWS plan would be spread over 10 years and include funding from other agencies for tributary stream restoration and other fish enhancements.
Instead of fish passage, the FERC staff recommended that more study be completed of bull trout populations below the dam. If those studies indicate a need for upstream fish passage, the FERC staff recommended that the PUD install "interim trap-and-haul facilities" with associated monitoring. If that doesn't move the fish beyond the dam, the PUD should then consult with resource agencies and the tribe to determine the most effective design for permanent fishways, according to the DEIS.
Implementing fish passage at Box Canyon currently is a mandatory condition, as ordered by USFWS under its authority outlined in 10(j) of the Federal Power Act. The agency plans to enter a dispute resolution process at FERC with the PUD and other agencies regarding this condition and 26 others it has prescribed, Donaldson said.
The FERC staff stripped away many of the recreational enhancements recommended by the US Forest Service and Interior, choosing instead to side with modest improvements proposed by the PUD. -Cassandra Sweet
[6] PUGET SOUND SALMON RECOVERY MOVES TO NEXT PHASE
Policy wonks from around Puget Sound gathered in Seattle Oct. 18 to meet the state's new salmon recovery czar and get the latest news about fish recovery efforts in local watersheds where agencies, tribes, municipalities, county governments, private business groups and conservation organizations have joined together in a unique effort to recover Puget Sound chinook stocks listed under the ESA.
Suburban sockeye east of Seattle. It's a purely voluntary "bottoms up" effort called the Shared Strategy with no real power and no real authority, said Jim Kramer, executive director of the Puget Sound Salmon Forum.
But the huge effort in Puget Sound has created a model for six other organizations around the state like it, said Bill Ruckelshaus, chair of the state's salmon recovery funding board. The watershed-based effort is not just about fish, Ruckelshaus stressed, "there are a lot of uses watersheds have to be put to--sometimes in competition."
Kramer said the Shared Strategy is moving into its third step after developing target levels for fish populations--working to evaluate the actions needed to achieve those targets. After that, recovery scenarios will be developed for each watershed and a final plan will be put together that includes goals for each population and region, scheduled to be completed by June 2005.
Kramer handed out an Oct. 2 letter sent to Gov. Gary Locke that called for continued funding at all levels, but stressed that current planning efforts shouldn't be merged because of "their distinct differences in approach and substantive focus."
Steve Meyer, the new head of the state's Salmon Recovery Office said it's time to start making things happen, but recovery efforts are now facing serious budget problems, that will become all too real when the legislature begins to wrestle with a $2 billion shortfall next January.
"There's no new money," Meyer said. "Hoping to hold on to the money we have is going to be a big challenge in front of us."
Both Ruckelshaus and Russ Cahill, chair of the state fish and Wildlife Commission have also penned a letter to Gov. Locke outlining the next phase of the recovery effort, preparatory to a November briefing with the governor. They said infrastructure must continue to be built at the watershed level "to involve communities directly in understanding their watersheds and the fish needs and in building consensus for how best protect and restore habitat."
Tribal fishermen unload on the Duwamish. They said more changes in habitat, hatchery and harvest are needed to improve conditions for fish, and finally, development and implementation of recovery plans that include all stakeholders. They told Locke that his salmon recovery office is serving an important role to coordinate efforts at all levels of government.
Participants also heard preliminary results on the EDT [Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment] analysis for the Snoqualmie and Snohomish watersheds from Kit Rawson, Tulalip tribal biologist and a member of the Puget Sound Technical Recovery Team. The analysis found it was pretty unlikely that target goals would be reached in either region before spawner/recruit numbers leveled off.
But the targets are still a bone of contention for some groups involved. Jim Miller, representing the City of Everett said his office "has concerns" about the level of those targets. In the Snoqualmie watershed, about 2,600 chinook are spawning annually, but the planning targets set by co-managers are in the 25,000-fish range if productivity levels remain the same. However, if productivity can be tripled, only 5,500 spawners could produce 20,000 fish according to EDT.
Whether that's possible is another question. TRT chair Mary Ruckelshaus said her team is waiting for watershed groups to give them a list of actions that are "do-able." Then the TRT will begin analyzing them to estimate the potential fish benefits. -B. R.
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