CWEB.083/November.26.2002
Bonneville Power Administration has just announced cuts in its energy conservation and renewable energy budgets to help address its financial predicament over the next four years.
The conservation/renewables spending reductions total $21 million through fiscal year 2006. They are part of $350 million in cost savings outlined Nov. 22 by BPA administrator Steve Wright to partially narrow a projected $1.2 billion gap between revenues and expenses. BPA is eschewing further wholesale rate increases, at least for now.
Bonneville officials still commit the federal power marketing agency to achieve its energy-saving target of 220 average megawatts from fiscal years 2002 through 2006, at a lower cost. Bonneville also looks to continue its role in renewable energy development, although with a lesser direct role in power purchases, Wright told the Northwest Energy Coalition's fall conference Nov. 15 in Portland.
Look for further coverage of BPA's conservation/renewables situation in Con.WEB's December issue.--Mark Ohrenschall
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Puget Sound Energy has prematurely ended its landmark time-of-use retail pricing program, after a recent quarterly report showed the vast majority of participating customers paid higher bills than they would have under flat rates.
The investor-owned utility cited as a major underlying problem the narrowing differences between peak and off-peak electricity prices, both in the current wholesale market and in Puget's four-daily-block TOU program. Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission regulatory analyst Jim Russell said most households couldn't shift enough loads off peak to earn bill savings, with the 1.4 cents per kilowatt-hour price gap between peak and off-peak blocks, plus a $1 monthly administrative fee.
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| (Graphic courtesy of PSE) |
Some 24,000 customers, nearly 10 percent of total TOU participants, had abandoned the Personal Energy Management pilot program after figures for the July-September period showed the average participating household paid an additional 80 cents per month on TOU rates compared to flat rates, while the average small commercial customer anted up an extra $1.16. Some 94 percent of participants received higher bills. Many customers were upset at their negative results, especially after changing their power consumption patterns in expectation of bill savings.
"The program isn't working the way customers want it to work or the way we want it to work," PSE chief operating officer and senior vice president Gary Swofford told Con.WEB. The WUTC approved Puget's TOU termination request effective Nov. 18, nearly a year ahead of the program's scheduled end.
Puget is working with a stakeholders collaborative to further evaluate the program, which was reportedly the most widespread TOU venture in the nation.
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| An actual customer summary report from PSE's TOU billing program. (Courtesy of Mark Ohrenschall) |
"We need to pause, do the evaluation and see if there is a way to structure a program during stable markets that makes sense for customers and makes sense for the company," Swofford said. "We know it makes sense during volatile markets." Washington's largest utility launched TOU rates for approximately 300,000 customers in the spring of 2001 amidst soaring wholesale power prices, and found promising though inconclusive early results on noticeable load-shifting away from peaks and reduced energy consumption by participants.
Puget initially touted time-of-use rates as part of the "next generation" of energy conservation, informing and empowering customers on their electricity use with advanced metering and communications technologies.
TOU Report
The WUTC had extended Puget's time-of-use program through September 2003 as part of a utility rate case settlement that also included expanded energy conservation initiatives (see Con.WEB, June 28, 2001). This pact reduced the differential between peak and off-peak block prices, instituted a $1 monthly meter reading charge for participants, and called for quarterly summaries.
For the first such reporting period Puget found that 90 percent of TOU customers paid higher bills than they would have under flat rates. The single biggest monthly residential bill increase was $6.46, while the single biggest savings amounted to $15.78, according to Puget. For small commercial customers, the largest monthly increase was $59.42, and the largest savings came to $80.95.
"I think customers felt like they had been led to believe there were benefits that clearly aren't there," said Swofford. He acknowledged surprise but understanding of the "pervasive" unhappy reaction from customers.
From mid-October through early November 24,000 TOU customers left the program--double the number of dropouts over the previous 15 months, said Puget spokeswoman Dorothy Bracken.
Some customers publicly shared their ire. Alan Zelt of Kenmore wrote to The Seattle Times that, "[I]t cost me more money to save electricity by rearranging my daily house schedule than if I had been an energy slob ... We believe in conservation, recycling, composting and not buying gas-guzzling vehicles. We even went so far as to replace most of our light bulbs with expensive energy-saving ones, for which PSE didn't even help on the cost. PSE took advantage of our belief system and values." Clara McArthur of Federal Way complained to the newspaper of "shabby, light-weight treatment" from Puget. "We are diligent people who have done our best to save energy and, at the same time, save money. We've turned our lives upside down trying to comply and to benefit from the promised extra, the 'big payoff.'" [Editor's note: In the interest of full disclosure, co-reporter Mark Ohrenschall was a PSE time-of-use customer whose July-September summary showed a net loss of $5.08, despite diligent family shifting of dishwashing and laundry to off-peak periods.]
Stakeholder Skepticisms
Some stakeholders believe the program was neither cost-effective nor particularly good for the environment, compared with other energy efficiency measures. "We've had serious concerns about the time-of-use program since it was first proposed," said Simon ffitch, an assistant Washington state attorney general who advocates for consumers on utility issues, and also belongs to the program collaborative. "The recent reaction to the first quarterly reports to customers have borne out our concerns about the cost-effectiveness of the program," ffitch said. "I think there's always been a serious question about whether residential customers with small loads, and small-business customers, can make much of a difference with load-shifting and saving money."
Ffitch said he favored other energy-saving measures such as better insulation and the use of energy-efficient appliances and compact fluorescent lamps. He hopes dissatisfied Puget TOU customers won't be skeptical of future energy efficiency ventures (the utility is roughly doubling its conservation program efforts compared to the previous three years).
WUTC staff was not surprised most TOU customers didn't have lower bills, said energy industry coordinator Merton Lott. "Staff thinks smaller residential customers definitely won't be able to benefit" from TOU "because of the [in]ability to shift enough energy [off peaks] to make it worthwhile," Lott said. Preliminary analysis showed average customers moving about 20 kilowatt-hours a month away from peaks, according to Russell.
Puget's Swofford said TOU's advantages were apparent amidst the energy crisis. "It was a program put in place during a period of extreme crisis, extreme volatility," he said. "During that kind of a market condition and the kind of [TOU] rate structures that were put in place at that time, a 35-percent differential, the program was successful and customers actually shifted their usage. It was in their economic interest and it was in the company's economic interest."
Most TOU customers initially paid less than they would have under flat rates, according to Puget. The utility also found that customers billed at TOU rates shifted 5 percent of their overall power consumption away from peak morning and late afternoon/early evening periods. And a survey of 800 participating residential customers found that 89 percent reported moving some electricity use off peaks, and 49 percent cut their energy use. Eight percent said they bought more energy-efficient equipment, said Penny Gullekson, Puget customer services vice president.
But current wholesale market prices may vary as little as 0.5 cents/KWh between peak and off-peak times, Puget said--a factor also reflected in the recently revised TOU rates of 5 cents/KWh for economy periods and 6.4 cents/KWh for peak time.
In hindsight, Swofford said, Puget should have modified the program when electricity markets stabilized after the energy crisis. "We did reduce the amount of differential off and on peak, but in doing that we changed the program in a way that didn't work for customers and didn't really work for us."
Future Options
Ffitch and Lott believe time-of-use programs would work better for large electricity users and in other regions lacking the Northwest's hydroelectric and energy-storage systems.
Puget officials are not yet ready to abandon the idea of time-of-use rates.
"We intend to analyze and restructure the program to see if it can add value in conjunction with our ongoing and expanded conservation programs," Puget chairman/chief executive officer Steve Reynolds said in a news release.
"The question will be whether it can work for both retail customers and the utility," Swofford said. "If you're not seeing a differential in the wholesale market but you're paying customers a differential, that's a problem for the utility." Some TOU programs elsewhere apply only for a few high-power-price days each year, he noted.
The enabling technologies for TOU rates remains in place, notably automated meter reading for nearly all Puget customers and a new customer information system featuring an integrated software platform. Swofford mentioned several potential future applications for Puget, such as real-time market-based pricing, remote load-shifting and specific energy usage information shared with customers.--Mark Ohrenschall and Cassandra Sweet
Natural gas energy-saving programs are on the rise for Oregon customers of NW Natural.
Public purposes funding for expanded natural gas conservation programs, along with low-income weatherization and bill-paying assistance, are included in a recent arrangement to partially cut the link between the utility's gas sales and its revenues. The package received Oregon Public Utility Commission approval in mid-September.
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| (Courtesy of NW Natural) |
It allows NW Natural to better help customers lower their bills by using less gas, without hurting the utility's profitability.
Conservation funding should total about $3.6 million annually for residential and commercial programs, administered by the Energy Trust of Oregon. Low-income weatherization funding and bill-paying assistance should amount to another $2.7 million, with those programs likely administered by the gas utility. This money started accruing Oct. 1 and the specific program portfolio will emerge over the coming year.
These figures collectively total slightly more than 1 percent of NW Natural residential/commercial revenues in Oregon, and represent a "significant increase" in funding for these initiatives, according to utility energy efficiency programs director Steve Bicker.
History
NW Natural has offered conservation initiatives over the years, including rebates for high-efficiency furnaces and water heaters, along with weatherization, audit, consulting, low-flow-showerhead and energy-saving informational ventures.
But gas utilities have long faced energy efficiency program barriers, according to a recent paper by Bicker and Ed Wisniewski of the Consortium for Energy Efficiency. Lost revenue concerns are "the most obvious reason," they wrote. Other factors are lower avoided energy costs for natural gas compared to electricity, and fewer opportunities for gas-saving measures compared to ubiquitous electricity uses in homes and businesses.
"The company didn't want to sponsor conservation programs to get people to use less gas; it hit their bottom line," said Steve Weiss of the Northwest Energy Coalition.
But effects from the energy crisis led the utility to seek decoupling and public-purposes funding, according to former NW Natural regulatory official and now consultant Susan Ackerman.
The investor-owned local distribution company initially filed its decoupling proposal to the OPUC in June 2001.
It stemmed from a confluence of circumstances surrounding the energy crisis, Ackerman told Con.WEB. Residential rate increases contributed to reduced gas consumption (3 percent less in 2001 than 2000 for residential/commercial customers), which in turn caused "a huge revenue difficulty" for NW Natural. Many customers had trouble paying their bills, Ackerman said, which squeezed utility assistance dollars. And customers were asking the utility for energy-saving help, creating exponentially more demand on audit and weatherization programs.
"What occurred to the company was this was a very ridiculous position to be in," Ackerman said. "Customers want help reducing bills, but it's killing your shareholders."
Stipulated Agreement
After regulatory twists and turns including a suspension for NW Natural's proposed purchase of Portland General Electric, the gas utility, OPUC staff and Community Action Directors of Oregon turned in a stipulated agreement in late August.
NWEC, the Oregon Office of Energy and the Natural Resources Defense Council declined to sign the pact for a variety of reasons, though they supported public-purposes funding and some form of decoupling.
"NW Natural's purposes in filing our Conservation Tariff and entering into the settlement were to make the Company indifferent to the consumption patterns and energy efficiency activities of our residential and commercial customers, and to provide funding for public purposes such as low-income bill payment assistance, low-income weatherization assistance and enhanced energy efficiency measures," NW Natural president and chief operating officer Mark Dodson said in a news release. "The settlement approved by the Commission is intended to meet these goals."
Public Purposes Funding
Under the new agreement, public purposes funding will be allocated in three pieces.
The biggest, equalling 0.65 percent of residential and commercial customer bills, is earmarked for independently administered enhanced energy efficiency programs. This charge bring in about $3.6 million annually.
Energy Trust of Oregon and NW Natural have already started planning, Trust executive director Margie Harris told her agency's board Sept. 27. Efficiency programs will focus on residential and small-to-medium commercial customers, she said, with an eye to "deliver services broadly, for both fuel types [gas and electricity] across the state."
"That's the strategy at this point," agreed Bicker. "We're going to find economies of scale with what they're doing on the electricity side and try to make them work where possible on the gas side," without cross-subsidies. He described ETO/NW Natural program discussions as "positive and productive."
Bicker anticipates the gas utility will continue its high-efficiency furnace and weatherization programs in the coming months, and keep providing a range of efficiency information for customers. Oct. 1 is the deadline for officially switching to ETO programs.
Any customer group paying for public-purposes funding is eligible to seek efficiency services, according to the agreement, although certain large and special-contract customers are exempt from the charge.
Another 0.25 percent of customer bill collections will go to low-income weatherization, generating an estimated $1.4 million annually. Bill-payment help for low-income customers will be funded through a 25 cents monthly assessment on residential customers, accruing an estimated $1.3 million annually. "At this point it looks like we'll self-administer" these ventures, Bicker said, in collaboration with community action agencies.
Decoupling Issues
"Decoupling is a regulatory tool designed to break the link between a utility's earnings and the energy consumption of its customers," the OPUC said in its order approving the NW Natural settlement. " ... the basic approach consists of defining a target for revenues and placing over-and-under-collections relative to that target in a deferred account for recovery in a later period. Under such mechanisms, a utility cannot increase its earnings by increasing its sales, because additional sales margins are returned to ratepayers."
NW Natural's settlement agreement establishes an "elasticity adjustment" to account for the effect of rate changes on customer energy consumption.
The utility also will "defer and subsequently amortize 90 percent of the margin differentials" for residential and commercial customers, the order said. That differential equals the spread between each customer group's weather-adjusted energy usage and a baseline. Initially, the margin is set at 34 cents per therm for residential customers and 21 cents/therm for commercial customers.
This particular mechanism ends Sept. 30, 2005, before which an independent study will evaluate the effectiveness of NW Natural's partial decoupling.
True Compromise
The OPUC-endorsed agreement represents a true compromise in which no party was entirely satisfied, according to Ackerman.
OOE, NWEC and NRDC thought the decoupling element was inadequate. Despite the welcome public-purposes provisions, "the decoupling mechanism proposed is unnecessarily complex, does not last long enough to generate real changes in utility behavior, and is incomplete in one critical area"--resetting distribution margins if decoupling ends in 2005, the groups wrote to the OPUC Aug. 30.
"It's a Rube Goldberg," OOE senior policy analyst Phil Carver told Con.WEB. "This isn't decoupling," he added, given the three-year period, elasticity and weather adjustments, and 90-percent amortization of margin differentials. "They just tried to hobble it."
Carver believes decoupling "is fundamental to utility behavior," and will be "crucial" for distributed generation.
NWEC considered the three-year timeline OK, Weiss said, but disliked the weather variation. "We had said decoupling should apply to real bills."
OPUC commissioner Joan Smith expressed "distaste" for the concept of decoupling. "Nowhere in this case record nor in the supporting literature is there conclusive evidence that decoupling actually works." she wrote in a concurring opinion. Independent public purposes funding for "social welfare initiatives" seems to minimize NW Natural's need to decouple, Smith wrote. But she cited the partial nature of the mechanism, its 2005 end date, independent study of its effects and upcoming general rate case as reasons to concur in approval--albeit "with great reluctance."
Commission chairman Roy Hemmingway and commissioner Lee Beyer acknowledged the settlement agreement as a compromise. They said it "substantially accomplishes NW Natural's goal of better aligning shareholder and customer interests." Service quality measures, independently administered public purposes funding and the upcoming general rate case will "significantly benefit" customers and environmental groups, they wrote.--Mark Ohrenschall
More Information:
Expanded energy-saving initiatives and new renewable resources could meet Pacific Northwest electricity load growth cost-effectively over the next two decades, according to a new study conducted for the Northwest Energy Coalition.
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| (Courtesy of Tellus Institute) |
The Tellus Institute study identified 6,283 average megawatts of potential demand-side reductions by 2020, including substantial amounts of combined heat and power applications. The study also assumed 3,924 aMW from new renewable sources, principally wind, to supply 20 percent of regional power by 2020.
Together, these power reductions and renewable resources would contribute more than 40 percent of projected Northwest electricity needs by 2020, Tellus reported. They could also reduce regional power plant carbon dioxide emissions 50 percent from current levels, and provide long-term financial benefits of several billion dollars.
"Cost-competitive efficiency and renewables are more abundant than commonly assumed, and far more than are being pursued," study co-author Michael Lazarus told the NWEC fall conference Nov. 15 in Portland. He said the numbers reflect "reasonable penetration rates" and are "economically, institutionally, programmatically" achievable. Tellus estimated a levelized avoided cost of about 3.6 cents per kilowatt-hour (in 2000 dollars) in determining efficiency/renewables measures.
NWEC believes the study offers an alternative to the predominant natural gas-fired power generation envisioned for the region. The coalition also believes these alternatives promise resource diversity, environmental benefits and stabilized electricity prices. "The Tellus study tells us we have a clean and affordable energy future out there," said NWEC director Sara Patton.
Lazarus said the study should serve as a benchmark for the Northwest Power Planning Council's upcoming regional power/conservation plan. The Council will look at the Tellus work in developing its draft plan scheduled for a mid-2003 release, said senior policy analyst Charlie Grist.
Regionwide Assessment
The Tellus study describes itself as the first regionwide efficiency/renewables assessment since the Council's 1998 power/conservation plan, which incorporated much of its data and analysis from earlier in the 1990s. "Since then, the landscape of technologies, markets, and policy options has shifted, while growing concerns about electricity price volatility, energy security, and global climate change have increased the value of investments in efficiency and renewable resources," wrote Lazarus and co-authors David von Hippel and Stephen Bernow.
The authors started with the Council's plan, which listed 1,535 aMW of potential cost-effective conservation (later upped to 2,300 aMW on higher avoided costs) and 2,700 aMW of renewables available at prices ranging from 2 cents/KWh to 6 cents/KWh. "We then incorporated key changes in market conditions as of 2001-2002, such as higher avoided costs, new efficiency standards, and more up-to-date costs for wind and other technologies," they wrote. Other information came from national and regional sources, including the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, Regional Technical Forum, the latest wind maps and various efficiency/renewables experts.
"We did not do any sophisticated modeling exercise," Lazarus said. "We tried to basically sift through what knowledge exists out there ... We tried to take all these puzzle pieces and put them together."
With the assembled information, "We then undertook a 'bottom-up' measure-by-measure analysis, examining the costs, benefits and market potential of over 30 individual efficiency and combined heat and power (CHP) measures, and four principal renewable resources (wind, biomass, geothermal, and solar)," the Tellus authors wrote.
Energy Efficiency
Tellus found 6,283 aMW of cost-effective demand-side reductions available regionwide by 2020 (2,768 aMW by 2010). A projected 3,542 aMW could be gained from efficiencies in the residential, commercial, industrial and "other" sectors, while combined heat/power applications in the commercial and industrial sectors could add another 2,346 aMW. Fuel switching from electricity to natural gas and solar water heating could contribute an additional 395 aMW.
The identified energy savings would create cumulative regional economic savings (net present value) of $2.7 billion by 2050, according to the study, and $5.5 billion if environmental externalities are included. Most of these benefits would accrue after 2020.
The cost of saved energy for all but one of the 31 analyzed sector-by-sector measures falls below 4 cents/KWh, and the rest generally comes in at less than 3 cents/KWh. Solar domestic hot water is the most expensive demand-side reduction measure, at 13.2 cents/KWh. CHP measures would cost in the range of 3-4 cents/KWh, the study reported.
Northwest industries have the most abundant conservation potential among customer sectors, according to Tellus. Motor measures could provide about 43 percent of the 1,335 aMW industrial total by 2020, while other end-use savings could amount to 39 percent and aluminum processing efficiencies could yield another 16 percent.
Residential energy savings listed in the Tellus study amount to 1,223 aMW by 2020. About one-third of that, 456 aMW, could come from somewhat expensive water-heating efficiencies. Standby loss reductions in home electronics could save 218 aMW. Assorted space heating, building envelope and lighting measures also show notable energy-saving potential.
In the commercial sector, emerging lighting technologies and high-efficiency fluorescent lamps and ballasts could save 568 aMW of the 945 aMW Tellus-identified potential. Heating, cooling and ventilation efficiencies comprise just 10 percent of that total, although the study acknowledged that, "Further investigation of the commercial HVAC and building shell opportunities ... could reveal far greater cost-effective savings."
Beyond end-use efficiencies, the Tellus study is bullish on the opportunities for combined heat and power to reduce Northwest electricity demand. Natural gas-fired CHP systems such as internal combustion engines, combustion turbines and micro-turbines could total 2,346 aMW by 2020. CHP advantages include increased overall fuel efficiency, flexibility and established use in many regional industries, according to the study.
Renewables
The Tellus study examined prospective wind, biomass and geothermal resources, "which are likely to be the most abundant, cost-competitive resources for large-scale grid applications in the region during the timeframe of this analysis." Solar photovoltaics, small wind, fuel cells and other distributed renewable technologies were excluded from the study.
Wind, biomass and geothermal resources theoretically could furnish 35 percent of regional power demand by 2020, according to the study. Tellus projected a 20 percent share by that date (of the envisioned reduced demand) and came up with 2,512 aMW of new wind, 1,221 aMW of new biomass and 191 aMW of new geothermal. Existing non-hydro renewables in the region now total 218 aMW, the study said.
Regional wind potential amounts to 6,433 aMW, Tellus reported. About 40 percent could be generated in Montana, with almost all the rest in Washington and Oregon. Lazarus and his colleagues limited their assessment to 25 percent of Class 4 through 7 wind resource sites, a total land area equalling 0.4 percent of the region, of which roughly 5 percent would actually be occupied by wind infrastructure. They excluded locations above 6,000 feet in elevation and those more than 20 miles distant from transmission lines.
This entire cumulative wind potential would cost less than 5 cents/KWh, accounting for the federal wind energy production tax credit.
Biomass opportunities in the near future center on co-firing in existing power plants and landfill gas, according to the study. Over time, biomass gasification combined cycle technology "could greatly expand the level of economically viable biomass energy use in the Northwest." Tellus identifies 2,880 aMW of longer-term regional biomass potential, at costs of up to 6 cents/KWh.
Geothermal energy is somewhat expensive and also more difficult to develop because of siting issues, Tellus reported. Nevertheless the study showed total potential of 641 aMW at costs ranging from 5 cents/KWh to 7 cents/KWh.--Mark Ohrenschall
More Information:
Montana's largest utility is examining renewable energy and demand-side options to serve its default supply customers who have chosen to remain on its system with the state's electric industry restructuring.
NorthWestern Energy announced in mid-November renewed plans to solicit wind power proposals for its default supply portfolio; a request for proposals is planned for early December. A previous wind RFP resulted in a cancelled power-purchase contract after state regulators questioned the utility's selection of Montana Wind Harness for 150 megawatts of capacity (see Con.WEB, Aug. 29, 2002).
The investor-owned utility, formerly known as Montana Power, also is analyzing wind and energy conservation for its default customer resource mix.
NorthWestern already has commitments for about 85 percent of its peak load requirements for default supply customers, spokeswoman Claudia Rapkoch told Con.WEB. Wind and/or demand-side resources "would fill some portion" of the remainder, depending on the outcome of the wind solicitation and the wind and conservation assessments, she said.
These initiatives are separate from NorthWestern's Universal Systems Benefits public purposes funding for conservation and renewables programs.
A Montana energy activist and NorthWestern advisory group member praised the utility for seeking wind resources and studying demand-side prospects. "They're looking at things very holistically in terms of trying to figure out the right numbers for both the distribution utility [and] the default supply," said energy policy director Patrick Judge of Montana Environmental Information Center.
Meanwhile, one of the wind developers spurned in NorthWestern's initial RFP has invoked a federal law to try to force NorthWestern to buy output from its planned 50-MW project (see Con.WEB, Oct. 29, 2002). This case was pending before the Montana Public Service Commission as of Nov. 25.
Wind Solicitation/Study
NorthWestern expects to issue its new request for wind proposals in early December, with bids due by mid-January, according to Rapkoch.
A concurrent study of wind as a potential default supply resource also is under way. Cost and system integration of intermittent wind are among the primary issues, Rapkoch said. She called the solicitation and study "a dual effort," with each informing the other.
"We intend to complete the wind assessment process by spring, in time to support project development, construction and implementation in 2003," Dennis Lopach, NorthWestern senior vice president of administrative services, said in a news release.
This is the utility's second formal pursuit of wind power for its default supply, which Rapkoch said averages about 670 aMW for base load. In the first go-round, NorthWestern sought 150 MW of wind capacity and tabbed Montana Wind Harness for the entire amount (see Con.WEB, Dec. 20, 2001). But other bidders criticized the choice on grounds of cost and MWH's qualifications. The PSC ultimately decided the utility had not adequately explained MWH's selection, and thus it could not conclude the choice was reasonable. NorthWestern shortly thereafter cancelled its power-purchase agreement.
This checkered history is "definitely a consideration" for NorthWestern's new wind solicitation, said MEIC's Judge, one of the outside advisors for NorthWestern.
"One recommendation we made was that they follow through with their RFP to give the [wind] industry confidence that this process will lead to a signed contract," he said. "Many of the problems that plagued the previous process are being addressed in a couple of different ways," he added, citing an advisory committee as well as default supply portfolio guidelines under development by the PSC.
"We're hoping that we will have a much cleaner process and a much more defensible process and it will lead to an operable wind facility by the end of 2003," a tight but feasible schedule, he said. That deadline matches the scheduled expiration of the vital federal wind energy production tax credit.
Judge hopes NorthWestern will pursue "at least" 150 MW as it did with the last RFP.
Montana has been dubbed the "Saudi Arabia of wind," Judge said, yet it has no large-scale operating wind projects.
"It's just a matter of making them work financially, politically and in the end physically in terms of being able to move [the generated energy] somewhere," said Mark Lindberg, energy and agriculture officer for the Montana Governor's Office of Economic Opportunity. "We don't have a market entirely yet in Montana [for renewables], and I think it will come. We've got to be able to trade with somebody somewhere." The biggest hurdle remains limited transmission capacity to deliver wind power to markets elsewhere in the Rocky Mountains and across the Cascades, he said--a situation unlikely to change soon amid uncertainties over future transmission system operations.
Despite the state's long history with and abundant supplies of fossil fuels, Montanans are coming to realize the importance of renewables, he said. Tax revenues, income for agriculturists, economic development, electric customer choices and environmental considerations are among the selling points for wind. "In terms of wind specifically, we want to do it. We realize the values of it ... We just need to get those pieces to fit so we can carry it out," Lindberg told Con.WEB.
DSM Opportunities
NorthWestern meanwhile is conducting what Rapkoch called "a very systematic and thorough analysis" of demand-side opportunities, including how they might interact with supply-side default customer resources.
A collaborative group is exploring the "appropriate" magnitude and timing for efficiency, conservation and load management initiatives, according to the utility's news release. "This assessment of conservation resources will help NorthWestern Energy better use conservation as part of an overall strategy to manage electricity demand in Montana," said Mark Thompson, energy supply executive director. "Education and consumer awareness will also be a key component of a comprehensive conservation plan to reduce supply cost during peak periods."
DSM recommendations should be available by early 2003, Rapkoch said. Any implementation plans likely would follow later in the year.
Lopach said NorthWestern expects to "coordinate and share" information with the Northwest Power Planning Council, which is assessing regional energy-saving potential for its upcoming power/conservation plan.--Mark Ohrenschall
An additional $3.3 million has been earmarked for the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance's ongoing program to transform the commercial building market.
The new funding, approved Oct. 25 by the Alliance board of directors, enables the Commercial Buildings Initiative to focus on improving market impacts, spreading the message of increased productivity with high-performance buildings, strengthening partnerships and enhancing the credibility of CBI services.
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Despite the current economic slowdown, Alliance officials believe this venture will help spur energy efficiency in the commercial building marketplace. Projected long-term Northwest energy savings are 150 average megawatts on total regionwide spending of nearly $300 million.
This latest board decision brings the Alliance's total funding allocation to $123 million since the market transformation collaborative's inception in 1996, including $9 million for CBI to date. An estimated $41 million remains potentially available to the Alliance through 2004, when its current funding charter expires.
The Alliance board, meeting at Timberline Lodge on Mount Hood east of Portland, also tapped Elizabeth Klumpp of the Washington Office of Trade & Economic Development as the new board chair for the coming year. She succeeds Larry Bryant of Kootenai Electric Cooperative.
Commercial Sector Framework
The Commercial Buildings Initiative represents a "framework for all commercial-sector activity" funded by the Alliance, explained CBI manager Dave Hewitt at the Oct. 25 board meeting. It encompasses such efforts as the Lighting Design Lab, Energy Ideas Clearinghouse and Building Performance Services, as well as regional coordination of national initiatives.
Four goals mark the CBI: 1) build awareness and demand for energy efficiency; 2) develop and provide credible information on efficiency benefits; 3) support the delivery of efficient products and services to the marketplace; and, 4) incorporate energy efficiency into normal commercial building practices.
Commercial buildings with substantial efficiency features can provide "tremendous benefits," Hewitt said. One is better financial performance in areas such as net operating income and asset valuation. Another is increased productivity of employees, which can dwarf energy savings in value. A third is environmental; energy efficiency is a key element of green building. And such high-performance buildings "don't necessarily cost any more," he said.
CBI uses different strategies for different segments of the commercial building industry. Publicity is important for the leading practitioners of high-performance building, for example. The vast middle group, with some interest in the concept, primarily needs access to information and other resources. For disinterested building professionals, bolstering energy codes is CBI's bottom line.
"The result is to give all key decision-makers in the commercial building market reason to do better," said Hewitt. "Move the leaders further up the efficiency curve ... motivate the interested to do better and bring up the bottom through codes."
Since 2001, CBI has expanded its regional daylighting laboratories from one to three, while daylighting consultations have increased twelvefold since 1999. BetterBricks advisors are working on 28 projects. Other accomplishments include a revamped Web site for BetterBricks, a new CBI marketing strategy, outreach to important audiences, involvement in national efforts and continued development of specific commercial-sector projects, Hewitt told the board.
For the coming year, he said, major CBI themes are translating the productivity message into action, expanding impacts in target markets with improved resources and integrated services, strengthening relationships with important allies such as utilities, and continuing to build credibility of the program's offerings.
Board member Norm Beckert offered a "very preliminary" assessment that $300 million in total regional costs (including private dollars) for 150 aMW in total savings equates to about a five-year payback. "Is an average five-year payback going to excite enough building owners to justify their investment to make this successful over time?"
Hewitt responded with an example. Say a building rents for $20 a square foot, ongoing energy-related operations and maintenance come to $2.50/square foot and net operating income is $1/square foot. If energy efficiencies can save 25 cents on O&M and thus add 25 cents to net operating income, building owners will pay attention, he said.
He acknowledged the private commercial building market as "tough," but suggested that higher vacancy rates force owners to compete more for tenants, and high-performance buildings offer a competitive edge. School, hospital, grocery store and residential multifamily construction are relatively strong despite the economy, offering other markets. Other Alliance officials noted CBI also applies to existing buildings and their efficiency opportunities.
A CBI evaluation is due next year. "It's critical that we get some very positive responses from that evaluation before we continue to commit these types of funds, because of the impact it has on our future allocation of available funds," said Beckert.
If CBI is eventually funded at its potential $30 million level, the Alliance would have slightly less than $14 million left for currently unallocated ventures, according to planning and implementation director Susan Hermenet.
Of the $120 million allocated prior to the meeting, 85 percent has gone to market transformation projects, reported executive director Margie Gardner. Information/training efforts account for 7 percent, operations 5 percent and market research 3 percent.
Of the allocated project funding, 43 percent has gone for the residential sector, 31 percent to commercial, 21 percent industrial, 4 percent agriculture and 1 percent other. Those figures are roughly proportioned to regional electric revenues from each of those major customer classes.
Board Changes
Klumpp, who has served on the Alliance board since the beginning as the Washington governor's representative, won an uncontested election for board chair for the coming year. Other officers are Darlene Nemnich of Idaho Power, secretary, and Mat Northway of Eugene Water & Electric Board, treasurer.
Beckert was elected to another three-year term as a consumer representative, and Bob Stolarski replaced Syd France as Puget Sound Energy's board representative. Outgoing chair Bryant recognized France as "a great contributor" during his tenure.
Bryant used the occasion of the World Series to name Ken Keating of Bonneville Power Administration the Alliance board's most valuable player and Mark Kendall of the Oregon Office of Energy the board's rookie of the year. Gardner thanked Bryant for his leadership as chair over the previous year.
In other Alliance developments, Keating reported 14 new unsolicited proposals had been received. Six have been declined, another six are in preliminary screening and two more have advanced into the due diligence phase.--Mark Ohrenschall
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Project coordinators have spent recent weeks charging up the solar domestic hot water system and commissioning a 4.2-kilowatt-capacity solar photovoltaic system on a hot-rod Zero Energy Manufactured Home.
It features cutting-edge energy-efficiency strategies and was factory-built for solar technologies.
This so-called "Next Home" is sited 300 yards from an identical manufactured "Base Home" with current practice technologies built to Super Good Cents and Energy Star standards--already 30 percent more efficient than federal code requirements.
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| (Courtesy of Bonneville Power Administration) |
This quarter-million-dollar demonstration venture involves Bonneville Power Administration, Washington State University Cooperative Extension Energy Program, U.S. Department of Energy's Building America Industrialized Housing Partnership, Northwest Power Planning Council, Portland General Electric's Earth Advantage program, Western SUN Cooperative, the Nez Perce Tribe, Idaho Department of Water Resources Energy Division and Oregon Office of Energy.
Located at the Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery project near Cherry Lane, Idaho, the homes will provide housing for hatchery workers' families. They are being fitted with extensive monitoring equipment to test and compare the economic and engineering performance of the Next Home technologies.
Basic Approach
The basic approach was to make ZEMH as efficient as humanly and technically possible, before it received solar photovoltaic and solar water heating equipment.
The Next Home includes radiant space heating, efficient fans, Energy Star appliances and lighting fixtures, special seals, heat-recovery features and an Icynene Insulation System, all donated by participating vendors. (A complete list of features is available on the Zero Energy Manufactured Home Web site.)
"The way to move (these technologies) along is to show them--to let people take a look at them," BPA project manager Adam Hadley told Con.WEB. "That's kind of the goal of this project--to show that it can be done and hopefully create a market for it."
Costs
The total cost of the homes, from manufacture to installation, came to roughly $245,000, excluding about $3,500 for utility hookup and $30,000 for the solar equipment. A $70,000 BPA grant paid for the solar equipment, the incremental costs of boosting both homes beyond U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development code requirements for efficiency, and transportation costs for the ZEMH home to a Spokane fair in September. That trip contributed to the higher price tag on the ZEMH home--$135,000 (without solar panels), compared to $110,000 for the Base Home.
Project officials said this price difference exaggerates what similar super-efficient homes would cost with expanded production, because the manufacturer faced a learning curve in equipping the house with such non-standard features as the Icynene Insulation System. Wiring, structural changes and pipe installations in preparation for the solar equipment also were novelties.
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| Photo of ZEMH home (Courtesy of Bonneville Power Administration) |
Improving the process to make homes solar-ready is a big step, said Michael Lubliner of the WSU energy program. Retrofitting basic HUD code-compliant homes can present difficult obstacles, such as a lack of attic crawl space to mount the panels and install wiring and plumbing.
Manufactured homes are normally built on a uniform production line designed for efficient output. With more than 20 vendors of energy-efficient features donating time and expertise to this project, the production process slowed, said Mike Klingner, general sales manager for Kit Manufacturing Co.'s homes division of Caldwell, Idaho, which built the two residences.
However, he said, the blueprints were laid for an easier process next time. Unfamiliarity with the Icynene Insulation System also added costs. The insulation is a spray-on application that most project workers had never seen installed on a manufactured home. The home had to be put in a tent to prevent over-spray and to protect air quality at the factory. Also, code requirements for insulation thickness don't account for the super-efficient Icynene; more must be applied than is actually needed. That technology alone boosted the home's cost by about $10,000.
Of all the technologies deployed in the ZEMH, Klingner said Energy Star appliances and lighting, and the Tyvek HomeWrap (a weatherization membrane underneath the siding), were closest to standard practice. Kit could make a home ready for any of the next generation technologies if requested by customers or if retailers marketed them as package options, he said. And some of the systems, such as appliances and the heat recovery and filtration system, can be installed on-site after the home is manufactured.
Larry Skinner, president of Clearwater Homes, the retailer of the houses, said that after this project his company plans to actively market Energy Star appliances and lighting in some home packages. It is also considering marketing more solar-ready homes.
Monitoring
All the monitoring equipment should be installed and running by January, and a complete cost-benefit analysis of energy savings and added costs on the ZEMH should take about a year, Lubliner said. Data loggers will monitor weather, temperature, humidity, carbon dioxide levels, temperature of crawl spaces, pump performance and energy use of lighting and appliances, and an extensive database will eventually be available on the Web. Evaluations will look at the ZEMH as a whole, as well as the individual technologies.
Data from the solar system itself will be collected every five minutes and automatically downloaded to the Web each night. That data will include not only energy production, but also wind velocity, ambient air temperature, actual solar radiation and other parameters that will be logged to evaluate their impact on PV performance. "We will be able to see every cloud that passes in front of the sun," said Western SUN's Mike Nelson. "We'll get a nice haystack of what the system did all day long and very accurate data of the impacts of weather on the system."
The home's solar domestic hot water system can provide 60 percent of the hot water needs of a family of four under Idaho weather conditions. BPA wants to have the PV system net-metered but, unlike in Oregon and Washington, Idaho law does not currently protect utilities from liability in potential accidents caused by electrical interconnection. The local utility, Clearwater Power, requires net-metering customers to carry a $1 million insurance policy against any interconnection accidents before it approves a contract. BPA and Western SUN are working with the Nez Perce Tribe and Clearwater Power to reach an interconnection agreement.--Ben Gilbert
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An integrated management system that can reduce industrial plant compressed air energy use by one-third, and increase industrial productivity by preventing breakdowns, has attracted the business of two Washington state naval facilities.
These represent major contracts for the system's creator, Portland-based SAV-AIR, which has received funding from the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance. The firm's compressed air monitoring and control system is already installed at 10 regional industrial sites.
Losing Compression
The average industrial plant spends $35,000 annually on energy for each 100 horsepower of air compression, based on 5 cents per kilowatt-hour rates, according to U.S. Department of Energy figures. Roughly three-fourths of that energy escapes as heat loss that is too low-grade to capture and reuse. Only 18 percent of the energy used by compressors goes toward delivering air to an end use, and half of that is wasted in system inefficiencies such as leaking, running too many compressors at once, or storing air at unnecessarily high pressures.
Most compressors have a controller attached, but the information is not integrated and settings cannot be remotely monitored or changed.
SAV-AIR's PL2000 monitoring and control system regulates compressor work loads and airflows much like an enterprise energy management system would monitor electrical loads, taking information from the controllers on individual compressors and reporting it in real-time to a touch screen interface. As demand for compressed air changes, the software automatically calculates which combination of compressors can most efficiently meet the need, turning units on and off accordingly.
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Weyerhaeuser's Foster plywood plant in Sweet Home, OR, for example, saved 28 percent of its annual compressed air costs--more than $34,000 in annual energy savings--but improved annual production by an additional $25,000 because more reliable air prevented equipment from jamming. Similarly, a Weyerhaeuser particleboard plant reduced its annual compressed air costs by 35 percent, or $36,000, but realized an additional productivity benefit of $24,000 with the PL2000.
Payback for the SAV-AIR system from energy savings has averaged two years, and 40 percent faster accounting for non-energy benefits. The average project cost has been $100,000 or less.
Naval Work
The Navy contracts are significant for SAV-AIR, totaling nearly $1.2 million. At Puget Sound Naval Shipyard in Bremerton, the $1 million work encompasses three different sections and the integration of 11 compressors. The shipyard has more than 18 miles of compressor pipes to be checked. SAV-AIR also is working at the Naval Submarine Base in nearby Bangor.
Market Issues
Despite successful real-world results, SAV-AIR encountered initial problems penetrating the market, because officials at many industrial plants don't recognize how much energy their systems use or how much air escapes, until a comprehensive monitoring system is in place. Many are unfamiliar with having sophisticated process controls in their facilities.
Many also don't measure the productivity losses when compressed air systems break down from mismanagement, partly because compressed air maintenance staff and production staff are in different camps. Until recently, some customers have been reluctant to share results of productivity gains from more reliable air supply, fearing their competitors will learn the same cost-saving techniques.
Alliance Role
Because the company receives funding from the Alliance, SAV-AIR's mandate is to serve the Columbia River basin. But large customers with plants in different regions of the country, like the Navy, open the door for an expanded geographical base and possibly more major projects in the future. The company also participates in the Compressed Air Challenge.
Alliance funding for SAV-AIR has totalled about $3 million in two phases since 1998, planning and implementation director Susan Hermenet told the Alliance board at its Oct. 25 meeting (see related story).
Hermenet said SAV-AIR targets industrial customers with 300-plus-horsepower compressed air systems, with a primary strategy of promoting air management as a facilitywide energy efficiency measure. The firm has sold and installed 10 systems around the region, and has recently audited 17 Northwest industrial sites. Regional savings potential from this venture is estimated at 40 average megawatts by 2010.
The Northwest's industrial economy faces "tough, tough times," Hermenet said, and compressed-air systems are not necessarily high priorities for capital spending. SAV-AIR offers a "good product that needs to get more familiar and establish more market credibility," she said.
SAV-AIR's Alliance funding--which includes a revenue-sharing clause--ends in 2003, but the company is moving toward a break-even point with revenues as it expands its compressed air management market.
SAV-AIR recently developed a sequencer for compressors grouped in a single place, for smaller plants or compressed air systems that don't need plantwide management. Future developments may allow the SAV-AIR system to be integrated with a plant's onsite SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) and production systems.--Ben Gilbert and Mark Ohrenschall
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It is my opinion that energy industry chief executive officers and policy executives in North America would have done more for the betterment of their companies and the industry generally by attending the Energy Technology Showcase 2002 in Portland Oct. 21-23 than by doing whatever else they had scheduled. As a conference organizer, I concede that I may be accused of some bias in this opinion. But I stand by it nonetheless.
[Editor's note: Energy NewsData's new Energy Prospects newsletter offers continuing coverage of energy technologies, including more from the Showcase conference. For more information visit the Prospects Web site: http://www.energyprospects.com/>.
Serious State of Affairs
The energy industry is in a serious state of affairs, and doing as well as it is only on account of habits and inertia. The U.S. secretary of energy is a political concierge, smiling at the guests and doing nothing of substance. The assistant secretary for energy efficiency and renewable energy, Dave Garman, chose at the last minute to present management awards rather than honor a previous commitment and come west to talk to Showcase. The assistant secretary did not have the courtesy to find a substitute speaker. And for the record, U.S. Department of Energy management at an awards level is clearly an oxymoron.
Meantime in Portland, we heard and learned from among others: Tom Casten, Mark Crisson, Dave Freeman, Carl Weinberg, Anne-Marie Borbely-Bartis, Tina Kaarsberg, Joel Gilbert, Alison Silverstein, Dick Reiten, Jack Robertson, Amory Lovins and Ralph Cavanagh. The featured speeches by Casten, Crisson, Freeman, Gilbert, Silverstein and Reiten were likely the best you would find at any energy event these days.
The shortage of energy affairs leadership is proclaimed far and wide. I would like to see an energy leadership board of trustees made up of the president of the World Alliance for Decentralized Energy (Casten), the president of the American Public Power Association (Crisson), the chair of the California Power Authority (Freeman), the inventive CEO of Apogee Interactive (Gilbert), the senior advisor to the chair of FERC (Silverstein) and the chair of the American Gas Association (Reiten).
But it's time to quit listing the distinguished cast and talk about the Showcase event itself. The theme was the status of energy technology in 2002, and it was clear over the three days that this status can't be seen as just a series of technical achievements and shortfalls.
Casten based his keynote on his study that shows the economics of resource investment favor distributed generation over central station by significant margins. But equally important, he pointed out, are regulatory deterrents and financial problems. A complex of provisions growing out of managing electricity as a franchised monopoly are, in Casten's view, effectively useless and a controlling constraint on capturing the benefits of distributed resources.
Uneven Progress
In several panels the Showcase status reports indicated that the resources themselves continue an uneven progress toward solid development, successful demonstration and significant deployment.
A small systems panel chaired by Mike Hacskaylo, administrator of the Western Area Power Administration, made that clear. Steve King of PNGC Power, who has tended cranky fuel cells in the field, was candid about their shortcomings. Ron Horstman of Western, whose purview ranges across that power marketing administration's 700-plus customers in 15 Western and Central states, had stories of distributed energy resource success due as much to small-system customer initiatives as to technology.
But presentations by King and Horstman show that the promise of distributed resources to distributed power systems remains as bright as ever. In the economic context established by the Casten study and in Lovins' book, Small Is Profitable, the useful promise of distributed generation remains as bright (and general) as ever. It is the timing that remains uncertain, in part because of the barriers.
DOE's Anne-Marie Borbely-Bartis brought up the problems of energy project financing in her opening panel remarks--an observation echoed by later speakers. There is a crisis of liquidity in power plant financing, and many remaining lenders are on the small side and are not familiar with the industry. The relationship between this dangerous state of affairs, however, and the benefits of what Lovins calls the "right size" for power resources, was not developed directly in Showcase discussions. But several speakers pointed out that utility system cash flows could be good sources of the kind of lower-order capital needed for downsized resource investments.
One illustration of "right-sized" investment I noted in Amory Lovins' presentation had to do with putting a gen-set at a substation. A 50-megawatt machine could take as long as two years to order and install, but a 10-MW machine could be available in a week or so. He calculates the investment cost to be the same.
Hydrogen as Hard Currency
Dave Freeman flew to Portland to speak at the opening night dinner. His speech did not dwell on the energy problems that beset California and the Western states. He concentrated on what he thinks people need to know to mitigate what Freeman and others see as the dangers of increasing foreign oil dependence. How many people, Freeman asked, know that their cars can run on hydrogen?
Freeman is making plans to give hydrogen fuel intelligence substantially higher national visibility. He thinks that current H2 writing and advocacy is mired in devilish details that obscure this core fact: cars run just fine on hydrogen. The hydrogen-powered Volkswagen bug and generator exhibit at Showcase was closed after dinner, but I sent him away with a brochure for the developer, Hydro Environmental Resources.
Conference participants were not able to ride the H2-powered VW bug because of logistical problems, but the vehicle was on hand and was started up periodically. HERI demonstrated its basic hydrogen generators as well. Whether its essentially chemical formula for generating H2 from water and other ingredients is the ultimate market-maker is yet to be determined. But it does represent a major technology vector on creating a hydrogen fuel era.
And even if the fuel cell remains the check in the mail that seems never to get there, hydrogen is increasingly becoming hard currency in anyone's energy technology showcase. Methanol, natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are important in and of themselves and as H2 feedstock.
It is likely that the electric revolution we are prefiguring in Showcase and in Energy Prospects is, apart from renewables, basically a refueling of energy production. We are moving from using hydrocarbons as primary combustibles to using them as feedstock for making H2. And among hydrocarbons, we prefer those that provide cleaner combustion.
Hydrogen Possibilities
There are other ways to make hydrogen. One of the advantages of a big conference like Showcase is its opportunities for networking with other energy minds. Some say as much information is conveyed in the hallways as on the dais. Jack Robertson chaired the economics panel and reported on one H2 idea that he formulated during a hallway conversation on the second conference day.
During his time at Bonneville Power Administration as acting and deputy chief executive officer, Jack was the lead on BPA's involvement in new technologies. One such technology was using surplus hydro to make H2, so that more energy cost was not involved in throughput than was earned in output. At night, the Northwest hydro system is characteristically able to generate lots of power for which there is no market. BPA, at Robertson's initiative and with the Electric Power Research Institute's help, investigated making H2 factories at the dams--in effect, finding a way to store surplus energy.
Jack told the audience that he and his hallway advisors conceive of moving surplus hydropower over idle transmission and distribution lines to a hydrogen load center. The load center could be a post office vehicle parking lot, where trucks have been converted to run on hydrogen. The H2 would be separated from water by electrolysis and stored in tanks, while oxygen could be packaged and sold, or even vented. This in a sense is distributed generation of H2 possible in a hydro system--or even by wind turbines running at night.
There was talk at Showcase of finding on-the-ground ways of using technology to get the industry out of its semi-paralysis. Robertson pointed out that H2 auto fueling is one way that could be demonstrated with off-the-shelf hardware at nominal setup costs, operating savings and revenues for BPA.
Looking Ahead
We had a conference-ending summary panel on programming issues for a one-day Showcase Forum event in six months. We hope that what we all think are important issues and actions are ones that accord with what the feds are planning--although I am not too hopeful.
Government ought to play a role here, but at the moment the best and maybe the only thing the Bush administration could do to head in a positive technology direction would be to send Spencer Abraham off to be ambassador to Austria and appoint Dave Freeman secretary of energy. Not likely, since Dave is a Democrat, but I have named his board of advisors above, and that's ahead of the curve if there turns out to be one.--Cyrus Noë
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